WI - Marquette University: Sanders up 4, Cruz up 10

[Maxwell]

Why are Republicans so happy? Shouldn't they be hoping Kasich wins here and not Cruz? Cruz is hardly more electable than Trump. On the Democratic side, I'll be surprised if Sanders does any worse than this, and he'll probably do better.

Republicans can kind of control Cruz, as he plays under their rules to some extent. They can't control Trump. Trump is an absolute wild man.

[Maxwell]

Marquette is the gold standard in WI.

...and Selzer is the gold standard in Iowa.

And caucuses stink on ice. This is a primary, where polling has, historically, been more accurate.

That being said, even if it were the case, wouldn't it mean that Cruz wins by even more? There has yet to be a state where a polling advantage for another candidate turned into an advantage for Trump.

[Maxwell]

Look, I could see a Trump victory if it were only, say, Cruz +2 with 15% undecideds. But it's Cruz+10 with 9% undecided.

[Maxwell]

Look, I could see a Trump victory if it were only, say, Cruz +2 with 15% undecideds. But it's Cruz+10 with 9% undecided.

trump won undecideds in michigan and illinois, so I don't see the 9% being too significant.

It absolutely is too much - Trump only won a very thin plurality of undecideds in Illinois and didn't win undecideds in Michigan.

[Maxwell]

Look, I could see a Trump victory if it were only, say, Cruz +2 with 15% undecideds. But it's Cruz+10 with 9% undecided.

trump won undecideds in michigan and illinois, so I don't see the 9% being too significant.

It absolutely is too much - Trump only won a very thin plurality of undecideds in Illinois and didn't win undecideds in Michigan.

9% isn't that much. cruz winning 60% of them would affect the race by maybe 1-2%.

I don't know what the  you are getting at - were you agreeing with me earlier? You do realize this poll says Cruz is up 10, right?

[Maxwell]

Why are Republicans so happy? Shouldn't they be hoping Kasich wins here and not Cruz? Cruz is hardly more electable than Trump. On the Democratic side, I'll be surprised if Sanders does any worse than this, and he'll probably do better.

Why would I want what is basically a Democrat as the nominee of my party? I don't care who Kasich could beat. He might as well be Hillary Clinton on too many issues. Plus, you and I have the same chance of that bum getting the nomination on the first ballot.

LOL WUT. So you'd rather lose than win with an electable candidate? This is why the GOP base is batsh*t insane these days.

The reason they're so 'batsh**t insane' is because they keep losing with the 'electable' candidates. You know, McCain, Romney, Dole...

You think they had a better shot with Huckabee, Perry, Forbes, or Buchanan?

Not to mention Santorum, Gingrich, Bachmann, Cain, or Paul?

[Maxwell]

Why are Republicans so happy? Shouldn't they be hoping Kasich wins here and not Cruz? Cruz is hardly more electable than Trump. On the Democratic side, I'll be surprised if Sanders does any worse than this, and he'll probably do better.

Why would I want what is basically a Democrat as the nominee of my party? I don't care who Kasich could beat. He might as well be Hillary Clinton on too many issues. Plus, you and I have the same chance of that bum getting the nomination on the first ballot.

LOL WUT. So you'd rather lose than win with an electable candidate? This is why the GOP base is batsh*t insane these days.

The reason they're so 'batsh**t insane' is because they keep losing with the 'electable' candidates. You know, McCain, Romney, Dole...

You think they had a better shot with Huckabee, Perry, Forbes, or Buchanan?

Not to mention Santorum, Gingrich, Bachmann, Cain, or Paul?

To be fair, Gingrich could have actually attacked Obama without Romney's.... Northern vibe.

Well sure - but Gingrich's problem is that he is, well, Gingrich. Mountains of enemies and scandals.

[Maxwell]

Maxwell, who was the last republican that won an election?

George W. Bush, the establishments choice, who ran as a certifiable Rockefeller Republican, according to Limbaugh, for as long as he could in the 2000 Presidential Election until it was realized his main opponent for the nomination was John McCain. His general election campaign was fairly moderate by modern Republican standards as well. In 2004 he shifted right but even then he had massive leverage and he obviously wasn't any of the names I mentioned.

Plus, don't you conservatives recoil at his memory at this point?

[Maxwell]

Maxwell, who was the last republican that won an election?

George W. Bush, the establishments choice, who ran as a certifiable Rockefeller Republican, according to Limbaugh, for as long as he could in the 2000 Presidential Election until it was realized his main opponent for the nomination was John McCain. His general election campaign was fairly moderate by modern Republican standards as well. In 2004 he shifted right but even then he had massive leverage and he obviously wasn't any of the names I mentioned.

Plus, don't you conservatives recoil at his memory at this point?

Yes, Bush was a "conservative who ran as a moderate".  That is, the Republican base believed that he was one of them (in part because of the primary campaign against McCain, but also for reasons of cultural identification).  And so, since he had the base in his pocket, Bush was free to spend the general election campaign talking about things like education, a Medicare prescription drug benefit, etc.  It was a campaign that allowed him to reach out to the center.  Contrast that with McCain and Romney, who in subsequent contests had the image of a "moderate", and so had to be "moderates who ran as conservatives".  That is, they had to spend way too much time sucking up to the conservative base, because the conservative base didn't believe they were really conservative.

A "conservative who runs as a moderate" seems like the smarter way to go, assuming you can find someone who can pull it off.

I think that's what Kasich tried to do this year, but he already lost conservatives with his whole Medicaid expansion thing.

[Maxwell]

Was "Seriously?" actually implying McCain was less conservative in 2008 than he was in 2000?