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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
  WI - Marquette University: Sanders up 4, Cruz up 10
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Author Topic: WI - Marquette University: Sanders up 4, Cruz up 10  (Read 8462 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: March 30, 2016, 11:28:09 am »
« edited: March 30, 2016, 01:20:16 pm by Castro »

Democrats:
Sanders - 49
Clinton - 45

Republicans:
Cruz - 40
Trump - 30
Kasich - 21

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/03/30/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-cruz-sanders-ahead-in-wisconsin-presidential-primaries-bradley-leads-state-supreme-court-race/

https://t.co/eifW2aSx7L
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Holmes
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« Reply #1 on: March 30, 2016, 11:29:23 am »

Well, at least Sanders is up so he should be happy, but +4 isn't great at all for him here.

Trump on the other hand has no reason to be happy with this poll. Cruz might take all delegates with a 10% margin.
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yankeesfan
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« Reply #2 on: March 30, 2016, 11:29:26 am »

That link is getting slammed.  Huge poll for Cruz.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: March 30, 2016, 11:31:01 am »

49-45 is a five point difference? Time to refresh your math.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #4 on: March 30, 2016, 11:31:50 am »

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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #5 on: March 30, 2016, 11:31:59 am »

49-45 is a five point difference? Time to refresh your math.

I typed in the wrong number at first my bad.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #6 on: March 30, 2016, 11:33:51 am »

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The Other Castro
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« Reply #7 on: March 30, 2016, 11:36:31 am »

It seems the whole Cruz affair thing is either having no effect at all or actually backfiring on Trump.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #8 on: March 30, 2016, 11:40:50 am »

Excellent poll for Cruz.  A big loss in Wisconsin would make Trump's path to a majority significantly harder (though not impossible by any means).
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Seriously?
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« Reply #9 on: March 30, 2016, 11:46:11 am »


Link not working. Did they embargo it until 12:15 CST?
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Fargobison
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« Reply #10 on: March 30, 2016, 11:47:28 am »

General Election numbers...

Hillary 47.1, Trump 36.6
Hillary 44.2, Cruz 44.2
Kasich 48.1, Hillary 39.2
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #11 on: March 30, 2016, 11:47:48 am »

Marquette is the gold standard in WI. If Bernie is only going to win by 4 (not at all out of line with the neighborhood). Then he will, at best, net 3-4 delegates. That's a crushing defeat in terms of math, but an okay image in terms of "momentum"

Cruz, on the other hand... this could be a big win for him. Would not guarantee that Trump loses first ballot hopes, but means that his path becomes very very narrow for that.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #12 on: March 30, 2016, 11:48:19 am »


Link not working. Did they embargo it until 12:15 CST?

It seems they accidentally released it, but then took it down (should be back up in a few hours). People got the google cache of it though and I would post it here, but the link is too long and would mess up this site's formatting.
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Vosem
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« Reply #13 on: March 30, 2016, 11:49:25 am »

I'm going to have some cheese today to celebrate. Excellent, very high-energy poll!
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #14 on: March 30, 2016, 11:52:32 am »

Actually I found a compressed link so this should work:
https://t.co/eifW2aSx7L
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #15 on: March 30, 2016, 11:53:43 am »

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Ronnie
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« Reply #16 on: March 30, 2016, 11:54:46 am »

Jesus, the convention is going to be a bloodbath.  Good result nonetheless.
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A Perez
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« Reply #17 on: March 30, 2016, 12:03:30 pm »

How many delegates does Sanders win if he wins Wisconsin by 4%?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #18 on: March 30, 2016, 12:08:15 pm »

This is an underwhelming performance for Sanders if true. Frankly I don't understand why the Clinton campaign doesn't contest the state more aggressively, a win in Wisconsin will completely discredit Sanders as a serious candidate, at least in the eyes of the media.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #19 on: March 30, 2016, 12:12:50 pm »

How many delegates does Sanders win if he wins Wisconsin by 4%?

Hard to say, when Obama won in 08, he won by 18%, but only netted 10 delegates. A 4 point victory probably nets fewer than 4 delegates.
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bilaps
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« Reply #20 on: March 30, 2016, 12:13:43 pm »

This is an underwhelming performance for Sanders if true. Frankly I don't understand why the Clinton campaign doesn't contest the state more aggressively, a win in Wisconsin will completely discredit Sanders as a serious candidate, at least in the eyes of the media.

Because Clinton campaign knows they are losing by bigger margin.
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yankeesfan
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« Reply #21 on: March 30, 2016, 12:17:50 pm »

A 10% margin for Cruz means that he could get close to all 42 of Wisconsin's delegates
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swf541
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« Reply #22 on: March 30, 2016, 12:18:14 pm »

Wonder how concentrated Cruz's support is.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #23 on: March 30, 2016, 12:20:04 pm »

This is an underwhelming performance for Sanders if true. Frankly I don't understand why the Clinton campaign doesn't contest the state more aggressively, a win in Wisconsin will completely discredit Sanders as a serious candidate, at least in the eyes of the media.

Well the harder that try the bigger deal it is if they lose.  Sanders it out spending them significantly and has 3 events in WI today alone. Clinton has no more events in WI before the primary. If it is close they can spin it as a win. 

I think they are looking more at NY and PA to be the knockout. Sanders has to win at least one to prove he is viable.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #24 on: March 30, 2016, 12:24:10 pm »

This is an underwhelming performance for Sanders if true. Frankly I don't understand why the Clinton campaign doesn't contest the state more aggressively, a win in Wisconsin will completely discredit Sanders as a serious candidate, at least in the eyes of the media.

Because Clinton campaign knows they are losing by bigger margin.

Nah, it's all optics. If they play down their chances in WI, they can discredit the minor win Sanders would get. Look at Michigan. The expectations were that Clinton would win by 10+ and she lost. She's not letting expectations be set for her again like that.
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