The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

FWIW, Booker's gonna have to presumably make a hard choice sometime in 2019 between keeping his safe Senate seat and running for President. He could pull a Rubio and do both, but the Democratic bench in New Jersey is deep and he's already taken bruises from a primary once. So I don't think it's out of the question that he genuinely is "unsure" if he wants to run yet or not.

This is why I'm skeptical of the idea that JBE or even Franken will run.

Booker is also only 48. I wonder if we're crowding the 2020 stable with prospects who are perhaps thinking more about 2024 or 2028 (Booker, Harris, Kander all spring readily to mind).

[Mr. Morden]

FWIW, Booker's gonna have to presumably make a hard choice sometime in 2019 between keeping his safe Senate seat and running for President. He could pull a Rubio and do both, but the Democratic bench in New Jersey is deep and he's already taken bruises from a primary once. So I don't think it's out of the question that he genuinely is "unsure" if he wants to run yet or not.

This is why I'm skeptical of the idea that JBE or even Franken will run.

Booker is also only 48. I wonder if we're crowding the 2020 stable with prospects who are perhaps thinking more about 2024 or 2028 (Booker, Harris, Kander all spring readily to mind).

That's what people were saying four years ago about folks like Cruz and Rubio.

It's too early to say that anyone is a lock to run.  There's legitimate uncertainty about the potential candidates' intentions.  But let's not talk ourselves into ignoring the clear signals that candidates tend to give about their presidential ambitions.  Booker (to pick one example) meeting with both the Iowa and New Hampshire delegations at least year's DNC was a clear signal of presidential ambition, and *usually* candidates with such presidential ambition don't wait around that long before making a presidential run.

So is he a lock to run?  No.  But he's *way* more likely to run than the dozens of Democratic senators who don't do things like that.  And looking at signals like that (meeting with politicos from the early primary states) is usually a better predictor of who will run than our armchair assessments of when is the right time for a given candidate to make their move to the presidential arena.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

FWIW, Booker's gonna have to presumably make a hard choice sometime in 2019 between keeping his safe Senate seat and running for President. He could pull a Rubio and do both, but the Democratic bench in New Jersey is deep and he's already taken bruises from a primary once. So I don't think it's out of the question that he genuinely is "unsure" if he wants to run yet or not.

This is why I'm skeptical of the idea that JBE or even Franken will run.

Booker is also only 48. I wonder if we're crowding the 2020 stable with prospects who are perhaps thinking more about 2024 or 2028 (Booker, Harris, Kander all spring readily to mind).

That's what people were saying four years ago about folks like Cruz and Rubio.

It's too early to say that anyone is a lock to run.  There's legitimate uncertainty about the potential candidates' intentions.  But let's not talk ourselves into ignoring the clear signals that candidates tend to give about their presidential ambitions.  Booker (to pick one example) meeting with both the Iowa and New Hampshire delegations at least year's DNC was a clear signal of presidential ambition, and *usually* candidates with such presidential ambition don't wait around that long before making a presidential run.

So is he a lock to run?  No.  But he's *way* more likely to run than the dozens of Democratic senators who don't do things like that.  And looking at signals like that (meeting with politicos from the early primary states) is usually a better predictor of who will run than our armchair assessments of when is the right time for a given candidate to make their move to the presidential arena.

Oh no that's definitely true - I was merely hedging based on the fact that the younger folks might see that they've got multiple times to run, and how much of a disaster the clown car was this time around.

[RogueBeaver]

LOL: Garcetti not ruling it out.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

LOL: Garcetti not ruling it out.

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This is one of the saddest things I've ever read in Politico.

[The Other Castro]

LOL: Garcetti not ruling it out.

He said the magic word!

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[America Needs R'hllor]

LOL: Garcetti not ruling it out.

He said the magic word!

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Yeah, just by saying "focused" he surely jumped up in the "who is running" ranking.

[Mr. Morden]

LOL: Garcetti not ruling it out.

He said the magic word!

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Looks like he actually used the f-word twice.  Here's the second time:

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[Mr. Morden]

Al Franken seems to dodge the 2020 question here (even using the “f-word”):

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/05/23/al-franken-comedian-turned-senator-takes-donald-trump-tv-star-turned-president/101931684/

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But in this other interview, he rules it out, using the future tense to indicate that it’s not going to happen:

http://people.com/politics/sen-al-franken-is-flattered-by-buzz-but-definitely-not-running-for-president-in-2020/

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In other news, here is a story on Pence’s moves:

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/pences-battleground-stops-pac-raise-eyebrows-amid-trump-scandals

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Hmmm....

[Bidenworth2020]

nice

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich continues his trend of shifting from "no" to "maybe":

http://www.mypalmbeachpost.com/news/national-govt--politics/kasich-wants-voice-2020-tuning-now-with-book-west-palm-talk/ipMQuCfSVb9qTT3jttAC5I/

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[Shadows]

If Kasich is smart, he should consider running as an independent!

[Mr. Morden]

More info on the schedule for the Chicago "People's Summit" is up, including info suggesting that Sanders's speech there will be in the evening of June 10th:

https://www.thepeoplessummit.org/schedule/

Still no Gabbard on the schedule, despite the fact that she was originally advertised as being one of the speakers.

[Progressive]

Hillary's speech at Wellesley is powerful. But it doesn't sound like 2020. It sounds like a transition from candidate Hillary involved in politics to civilian Hillary involved in politics.

[Hindsight was 2020]

That shade about Nixon though

[Liberalrocks]

HRC 2020 it's happening!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

HRC 2020 it's happening!

If you want to lose again to Trump, sure.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

HRC 2020 it's happening!

If you want to lose again to Trump, sure.

When's the last time that a losing GE presidential candidate from a major party ran in the very next election? Adlai Stevenson?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

HRC 2020 it's happening!

If you want to lose again to Trump, sure.

When's the last time that a losing GE presidential candidate from a major party ran in the very next election? Adlai Stevenson?

Yep. There is also Nixon '60/'68 of course.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

HRC 2020 it's happening!

If you want to lose again to Trump, sure.

When's the last time that a losing GE presidential candidate from a major party ran in the very next election? Adlai Stevenson?

Yep. There is also Nixon '60/'68 of course.

Nixon '68 would be HRC's best case. Worst case, she's a modern day Adlai or William Jennings Bryan.

[MAINEiac4434]

If Kasich is smart, he should consider running as an independent!

Exactly, and the Dem would have a chance at all 50 states if the Trump approvals are low enough.

[Mr. Morden]

Sunday morning talk show watch: Cory Booker will be on CNN's "State of the Union" tomorrow:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NEWS_SHOWS?SITE=AP

[Oppo]

HRC 2020 it's happening!

If you want to lose again to Trump, sure.

When's the last time that a losing GE presidential candidate from a major party ran in the very next election? Adlai Stevenson?

Yep. There is also Nixon '60/'68 of course.

And McGovern.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

HRC 2020 it's happening!

If you want to lose again to Trump, sure.

When's the last time that a losing GE presidential candidate from a major party ran in the very next election? Adlai Stevenson?

Yep. There is also Nixon '60/'68 of course.

And McGovern.

Though he never won the nomination of his party more than once. By that means, you would have to include 80% of presidential candidates since 1952. Most candidates ran at least once before and failed (McCain, Romney, Trump  - kinda sorta - Reagan in '68, '76, and '80, Clinton, George HW. Bush, Gore, Ron Paul, Pat Buchanan, Bob Dole, Lamar Alexander, etc, etc).

[Mr. Morden]

HRC 2020 it's happening!

If you want to lose again to Trump, sure.

When's the last time that a losing GE presidential candidate from a major party ran in the very next election? Adlai Stevenson?

Yep. There is also Nixon '60/'68 of course.

And McGovern.

Though he never won the nomination of his party more than once. By that means, you would have to include 80% of presidential candidates since 1952. Most candidates ran at least once before and failed (McCain, Romney, Trump  - kinda sorta - Reagan in '68, '76, and '80, Clinton, George HW. Bush, Gore, Ron Paul, Pat Buchanan, Bob Dole, Lamar Alexander, etc, etc).

Yes, but we're talking about candidates who won the nomination, and then ran again later.  McGovern won the nomination in 1972, and then ran again in '84.  Whereas folks like Dole and Gore stopped running for president after their GE losses.