UT Deseret News: Cruz + 21, Sanders + 8

[Xing]

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865650529/Cruz-Sanders-top-picks-in-Tuesdays-Utah-caucuses-poll-says.html

Taken March 8th-15th, before Rubio dropped out.

Republicans:
Cruz - 42
Trump - 21
(Rubio) - 17
Kasich - 13
Other/don't know - 7

Democrats:
Sanders - 52
Clinton - 44
Other/don't know - 4

[Lief 🗽]

If Clinton could keep Sanders under 60% here that would be fantastic.

[Mehmentum]

These results would actually be underwhelming for Cruz and Sanders.  Cruz needs to break 50% and Sanders needs to be leading by at least 20 points for a convincing win.

[RJEvans]

Clinton isn't even contesting UT (I don't think she is running any ads) So I think Sanders will do very well. But even a 20-point victory will be underwhelming given UT should be one of his best states.

[Shadows]

Utah is not a very progressive state nor borders Vermont, I see no reason why that should be one of Sanders' best states. If Clinton loses by 20% here too, she is in trouble for the general & is losing the white votes very badly.

I expect Sanders to get above 55%, win by double digits. I hope he wins with 60% vote but Clinton is 300 up, the media has declared her a winner & she win 5-0 & is coming with tremendous momentum. Wouldn't be surprised if Clinton does well

[Holmes]

Utah itself isn't very left-wing obviously, but Democrats in Salt Lake City are, and that's where the bulk of caucus-goers will be coming from in a statewide Democratic caucus. And well, it is a caucus. Sanders is favored, so if he can't pull off a double digit win then it's a bad sign.

[IceSpear]

Why in god's name did they wait so long to release this?

Anyway, as usual with caucuses, Cruz and Sanders will drastically outperform this.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I wonder if Cruz could hit sixty here.

[Boston Bread]

Boost Cruz by 20 and Sanders by 10 and that sounds right.
Utah being conservative overall is not going to hurt Sanders.

[BundouYMB]

Clinton's actually going to have a net gain in delegates on March 22. That's hilarious.

[Donnie]

This s.hitty poll is so old, that i really believe it come from the deser(e)t...

[Shadows]

Utah itself isn't very left-wing obviously, but Democrats in Salt Lake City are, and that's where the bulk of caucus-goers will be coming from in a statewide Democratic caucus. And well, it is a caucus. Sanders is favored, so if he can't pull off a double digit win then it's a bad sign.

Clinton won Iowa & there is no logical reason for Caucus to magically favor Bernie if the underlying demographics or something else does not add up. Clinton did well in Mass in the Boston area (which has liberals & establishment type people) & some liberal areas I guess.

I expect a 10% Sanders win or a little more but I am not sure about 20% or more with Clinton's momentum. Clinton should start doing better with whites if she is serious about the GE!

[Gorilla Monsoon]

Utah itself isn't very left-wing obviously, but Democrats in Salt Lake City are, and that's where the bulk of caucus-goers will be coming from in a statewide Democratic caucus. And well, it is a caucus. Sanders is favored, so if he can't pull off a double digit win then it's a bad sign.

Well, I see another yooj win like in traditionally GOP OK. We Bernie fans never give up

[RJEvans]

Utah itself isn't very left-wing obviously, but Democrats in Salt Lake City are, and that's where the bulk of caucus-goers will be coming from in a statewide Democratic caucus. And well, it is a caucus. Sanders is favored, so if he can't pull off a double digit win then it's a bad sign.

Clinton won Iowa & there is no logical reason for Caucus to magically favor Bernie if the underlying demographics or something else does not add up. Clinton did well in Mass in the Boston area (which has liberals & establishment type people) & some liberal areas I guess.

I expect a 10% Sanders win or a little more but I am not sure about 20% or more with Clinton's momentum. Clinton should start doing better with whites if she is serious about the GE!

A Democrat should start doing better with whites if they're serious about the general? Come on.  In the last election Obama got 39% of Whites. In the last YouGov poll (Clinton +1, Sanders +3 against Trump, Clinton is getting 34% of whites while Bernie is getting 38%. Well within the MOE. She's doing fine among whites and not that much worst than Bernie.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

V I R T U A L T I E
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VIRTUAL TIE TAKE MY ENERGY ༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ

[Matty]

24% of the republican poll is either rubio or undecided.

you have to assume cruz will net at least 8% of that to put him over 50

[Eraserhead]

Neither race will be anywhere near this close.

[dspNY]

Neither race will be anywhere near this close.

Agreed, Cruz will win by 30 and Sanders will win by 15-20. However Hillary will win big in Arizona (early vote favors her huge) so there will be a wash when it comes to delegates tomorrow.

[Gustaf]

Keep in mind that if Sanders is to win the nomination he probably needs to win Utah by a margin of 25-30%. Even a 60-40 win would be underwhelming. That's the delegate math Bernie Bros refuse to take in.

[dspNY]

Keep in mind that if Sanders is to win the nomination he probably needs to win Utah by a margin of 25-30%. Even a 60-40 win would be underwhelming. That's the delegate math Bernie Bros refuse to take in.

Probably a lot more than that when New York looms (he won't come close here)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This s.hitty poll is so old, that i really believe it come from the deser(e)t...

A desert mirage, perhaps.

[Shadows]

Keep in mind that if Sanders is to win the nomination he probably needs to win Utah by a margin of 25-30%. Even a 60-40 win would be underwhelming. That's the delegate math Bernie Bros refuse to take in.

That's not true - He has to win around 58% of the votes, that is 16% margin. Anything above 16% is him going beyond his required victory margin. Ofcourse he will do bad in some states & needs to make up - Personally I don't think even Sanders supporters expect a win anymore.

60% would be a tremendous result for me & once again a bad omen for Clinton for the GE

[Shadows]

Utah itself isn't very left-wing obviously, but Democrats in Salt Lake City are, and that's where the bulk of caucus-goers will be coming from in a statewide Democratic caucus. And well, it is a caucus. Sanders is favored, so if he can't pull off a double digit win then it's a bad sign.

Clinton won Iowa & there is no logical reason for Caucus to magically favor Bernie if the underlying demographics or something else does not add up. Clinton did well in Mass in the Boston area (which has liberals & establishment type people) & some liberal areas I guess.

I expect a 10% Sanders win or a little more but I am not sure about 20% or more with Clinton's momentum. Clinton should start doing better with whites if she is serious about the GE!

A Democrat should start doing better with whites if they're serious about the general? Come on.  In the last election Obama got 39% of Whites. In the last YouGov poll (Clinton +1, Sanders +3 against Trump, Clinton is getting 34% of whites while Bernie is getting 38%. Well within the MOE. She's doing fine among whites and not that much worst than Bernie.

Obama for 41-42% odd If I am not wrong, Romney was at 58-59% that I remember. 34% is horrible & would probably hand over the white house to the GOP. It is too early to predict white votes in a GE as there is no head to head match up.

But losing White votes 20-25% in most states in a primary COULD mean bad news for the candidate in the GE

[Matty]

junk!

[IceSpear]

If I was a pollster there's no way in hell I'd ever try to poll a caucus. lmao

After some of the 30+ point caucus misses we've seen this year, Ann Selzer's "epic fail" is looking a lot better.