Mexico 2006

[ThePrezMex]

Great update AG. I will make some comments on your comments as well, since it has been a long time since I posted about the presidential race.

An update on Mexican election.

If no candidate obtains 50% overall, there will be a runoff, I think.

Yes, there would be a runoff if nobody has 50%. We will know that after the second bunch of states vote. If Calderon wins there, then he most surely will get the nomination without a runoff.

Creel losing the first round, which he was supposed to win, probably, ensures he will not be the nominee. He is a lousy public politician (his attempts to pretend being "a man of the people" are decidedly Dukakis-in-the-tank-like) and he is not very popular with the party rank-and-file... and a disappointing performance as the "Gobernacion" Secretary. The change, probably, makes PAN chances better.

Creel is not only a lousy politican and government official, he's the lousiest. I'm totally convinced, I think many are, that he's basically responsible for most of the things that have gone wrong during the Fox administration, especially on public safety (which is issue #1 for mexican voters) and political dialogue and agreement. He's a total joke that would sink Mexico to Colombia style status. Out of desperation he now even spoke against Vicente Fox!! - basically becoming a traitor and shooting himself on the feet. In any case, I agree that a Calderon candidacy would improve chances for PAN. I don't think that Calderon is really great, I don't think he's really even prepared to be President - I'm not even sure he would be a good President. But out of the 3 in PAN he is clearly the best. And he compares positively against the other parties as well.

So, the race now seems to be Lopez Obrador (PRD) - Calderon (PAN) - Madrazo or Montiel (PRI).  Actually, I'd probably buck the conventional wisdom and say that Montiel is likelier than Madrazo. Between those two there is not much to choose

Today's poll basically show a tie between Madrazo and Montiel, with Madrazo slightly ahead. If you consider just the people who consider themselves very close to the PRI, then Madrazo is 10 points ahead. Unlike the PAN's primary, which is just for party members, the PRI one is going to be open for everybody. Obviously you would expect that those that identify with the PRI the most are the ones that are going to go to vote. In the 2000 primary, almost 10 million people voted to select the PRI candidate!
This week, the PRI dodged 2 out of 3 important legal challenges that a very powerful woman (the Teachers Union leader and 2nd in command at PRI) had argued on the election courts - We do have a special 'election related issues' court, with almost the same status as the Supreme Court (it only hears about election and political parties' issues).
If she had won those, then the PRI would have be in total disarray right now. But they seem to be in a position to start the primary process.

[KillerPollo]

Creel is an idiot who needs to die... or just humiliate himself in Jay Leno.

[Burn baby, Burn]

The PRI's time out of office has cleaned up the party a bit, they are not as stupid as they were before. They will win the presidency and the congress, but actually be a little more democratic this time. This trend will continue for a long while.

[ag]

The PRI's time out of office has cleaned up the party a bit, they are not as stupid as they were before. They will win the presidency and the congress, but actually be a little more democratic this time. This trend will continue for a long while.

Actually, not. The leaders of PRI before right before the loss were the most "pro-democracy" leaders the party ever had. Of course, they are internally discredited, and the current leaders and front-runners for nomination are what is known in Mexico as "dinosaurs" - unreconstructed old-timers.  Both Madrazo and Montiel (the front-runners for nomination) are rather thuggish, and their main rival within the party (Elba Gordillo, the former - that is, until yesterday, when she resigned - Secretary General of the party) is the head of the powerful teachers union - one of the old pillars of PRI rule.  In any case, without the presidency PRI lacks obvious personal leadership and, as a "big tent" party it has no clear course. It is hard to talk about any "trend" there - it is a strange entity.

An interesting thing to follow is Elba Gordillo's behavior. She was elected party's Sec.Gen. in tandem with Madrazo's election to the position of the party leader, but since then they've sharply split.  As the had of the party faction in the Lower House she was seen as cozying to much to Fox gov't, causing a revolt, split, and her replacement in the Congress leadership. Since then she was moving away from the party, and now resigned her last leadership position (though still no the party membership). She explicitly refused to discard possibility of running in the party primary for president (she has now chance, but could confuse the hell out of the process).  At the same time, some in PAN have been wooing her to cross the isle.

Anyway, over the last month or two things have been changin in the race. Once muddled, the PAN race now has an obvious front-runner (Calderon) - and it is not the hopelessly uncharismatic Creel. In contrast, the internal situation in PRI is now hopelessly confused.  In polls PRI candidates are, mostly, tied with PAN candidates (or even a notch behind) for the second spot behind PRD's Lopez Obrador (who has now formally obtained his nomination unchallenged). In a first-past-the-post race the third guy is bound to have support eroded (if this becomes Obrador/anti-Obrador race, every anti-Obrador voter is going to plumpt for whoever is best posed to defeat Obrador), so this is not a pretty position to be in.

To sum up, PAN seems to be picking up its game, while PRI is not. Any forecast of PRI's return to power in 2006 is highly premature at this point.

PS. I actually like Creel. But the guy is hopeless as a politician (Angela Merkel would have made a flaming toast of him), and he has to recognize that.

[ag]

Over the weekend elections in the State of Coauhila (the Mexican part of the good old State of Coauhila and Tejas).  This is a PRI stronghold, and the party didn't disappoint.

In the Governor race it took 55% of the vote for 33% for PAN and 3% each for PRD and a local party (PUDC) (all other parties got less than 1%).

In the mayoral races (equivalent, more or less, to county executives) it took 31 out of 38 municipalities (counties) compared with 4 for PAN, 2 for PRD and 1 for PDUC.  Of the major cities, PRI took the state capital (Saltillo) with 54% of the vote (36% for PAN), Monclova (52% to 39% for PAN) and Piedras Negras (60% to 30% for PAN). PAN major success was in the state's larges city (Torreon), where it took 51% of the vote (to PRI's 43%) and in a midsize town of Ramos Arizpe (where it took 58% of the vote for PRI's 38%). PDUC did take the border town of Acuña (43% for PRI's 40% and PAN's 9%). PRD won the town of San Pedro (47% for PRI's 45% with PAN distant at 3%) The other 3 opposition-controlled municipalities (1 for PRD and 2 for PAN) are tiny (under 2 thousand votes total in each). PAN managed to win one of them by 3 votes and PRD won its victory by 4 votes - I guess, there will be recounts.

Of the 20 direct district seats for the State Legislature (there are also proportional seats) PRI one 16 and PAN 4.   

[ag]

Today is the 2nd round of the PAN primary.  With 96.71% of the polling places reporting some preliminary results.

The voting was in the Southeast of the country and in the Yucatan peninsular (a total of 8 states: Chiapas, Oaxaca, Puebla, Veracruz, Campeche, Quintana Roo, Yucatan, Tabasco). Of these, if I am not mistaken, PAN rules alone only in Yucatan. Overall turnout is low, as in the first round - only about 108,000 votes so far, overwhelmingly in Yucatan, Veracruz and Puebla (in the relatively small state of Yucatan the 23000 voters, actually, is not bad, but in the gigantic Veracruz and Puebla even similar numbers are peanuts).

So far, the results are 50.6% for Calderon, 36.23% for Creel and 13.16% for Cardenas.  Interestingly, Creel did not collapse, in fact his share grew, though only slightly and the gap between him and Calderon is about the same as before.  Calderon seems to have cracked 50% and the only loser, compared with round 1, is Cardenas.

Creel managed to win in Tabasco with almost 60% of the vote (though on less than 3500 votes cast - Tabasco is the home state of both the PRD candidate Lopez Obrador and the likely PRI candidate Madrazo - PAN has nothing to fish for here).  He also has a slight lead in Oaxaca (a PRI stronghold) - 45.8% to 41.1% for Calderon.

In the other 6 states Calderon leads. He got a whooping 71% of the vote in Yucatan - this is not surprising, since he is the favorite of the new PAN governor of the state (Yucatan was a PRI stronghold until very recently, and the PAN's recent victory has made the party a very dynamic force, but also the governor a very dominant figure within it). He got just over 50% in Veracruz and Quintana Roo.

Cardenas's best performance is 24% in Chiapas (against 43% for Calderon and 32% for Creel). 

To sum up, Calderon retained the very comfortable lead but failed to make it irreversible. He needs to get over 50% total in 3 rounds, and since he was short of that in round 1 and barely above that in round 2, unless he does very well in round 3 (center, including Mexico City), we might get the Calderon-Creel run off. Still, momentum is with Calderon and, honestly, I don't see the point, as far as Creel is concerned.

On other recent events: the minor leftish parties (Convergencia and Labor) have hard talks with PRD about the coalition in the congressional elections next year. There are just few weeks left to register formal coalitions, so it has to be done fast. PRD is insisting on joint presidential candidate, but the minor parties are not very eager (they'd rather coax the former PRD leader Cuauhtemoc Cardenas to run).  Also, they both want a steep price in terms of congressional seats, and PRD seems to be giving a hard bargain. Might be interesting, or might be not. 

[ag]

More on Mexican election.

Roberto Madrazo has confirmed his reputation of Jack the Ripper of Mexican politics. A few days of staggered revelations about the minor matter of Arturo Montiel's exquisite real estate empire (a bunch of houses from Paris to Valle del Bravo, everyone of which would be worth more than his entire lifetime income as a modest public servant Montiel), and the erstwhile PRI front-runner first roars, then growls, then murmurs pleadingly and, finally, withdraws. It's too late for "All united against Madrazo" to get a new candidate into the primary, so we are in for an exciting race between Madrazo and some Evaristo No-Name for PRI presidential nomination.  That's a classic: The Highway Robber defeats the Godfather!

The problem for PRI is that Madrazo indeed has all the appeal and charisma of Jack the Ripper for pretty much anyone who is not a PRI member (and for a surprizingly large chunk of PRI membership as well). His route to PRI leadership and nomination has been literally over political corpses of a lot of popular PRI firgures. And while Beatriz Paredes did semi-voluntarily take the poison pill of PRI candidacy for Mexico City Mayor, the rest kicked and screamed very loudly and in public view.   Elba Gordillo (with her massively powerful Teacher's Union) has all but been pushed outright into the warm embrace of PAN.  Now, given what happened to Montiel I somehow get the feel that the well-oiled PRI machine in Mexico State will turn out to be somewhat more disfunctional and inept than expected in this particular election: even though Montiel smiled and embraced his tormentor in public, it is a public rape, not a love fest.  And Montiel is not the type that forgives or forgets.

In any case, it is all but certain now: the race will be Lopez Obrador (PRD) - Madrazo (PRI) - Calderon (PAN). Of the three "pre-candidates" only Calderon still has any chance of loosing the nomination, but he'd have to be very inept to  do so.  And the election is only going to be in July 2006! Talk about a long campaign season!

An interesting note, that I'd made in the past: two of the three candidates (Lopez Obrador and Madrazo) come from the same smallish state of Tabasco.  And both are, essentially, old-time PRI bone-crushers, though Lopez Obrador has taken the skill to PRD.  Not that Calderon is a candidate for sainthood, but, in comparison, he starts looking quite attractive.

[ag]

Today was the third - and looks like the last - round of PAN primaries (in the cetner, West and North-West of the country). With 96.7% of stations counted, Calderon got 58.03% of the vote (to 24.07% for Creel and 17.90% for Cardenas). He tot over 72% in (his native?) Michoacan and Aguascalientes, 70% in Coahuila, 68% in Morelos (including the city of Cuernavaca), over 65% in Sinaloa, 60 to 65% in Baja California, Chihuahua and Mexico City (and of the few ballots cast abroad). He got around 55% in Guerrero and Sonora, and came first with less than half of the vote in Nayarit (49.96%),  Colima (46.6%) and the tiny (populationwise) Baja California Sur (38.91% - in a three-way split). The only state he lost (40.57%) was Jalisco (including the city of Guadalajara), but even that he lost not to Creel (who got just 7.08%), but to the also-run Cardenas (52.35%). The last result is no surprise - Cardenas is the former governor of Jalisco, so the state went for its native son.  While I haven't done the math, looks like it should give Calderon 50%, and avoid the run-off.

The overall turnout was, like in each of the previous rounds, small, at just over 100 thousand, almost a quarter of that in Jalisco, and the rest thinly split. Turnout in the capital was abysmal - so far, less than 8.5 thousand votes in a municipality of 8.5 million people! Slightly surprising - today action seemed fairly lively at the one polling station I passed by (it was in a tent, on a busyish sidewalk, so there wasn't a way to miss it). There wasn't a line, but there were voters visible. But then it was in an upper-middle-class section of town, and the crowd (if it could be termed that) was lilly-white - not a good sign for the general election in an over 85% non-white country.

In other news, the PRD's erstwhile standard-bearer Cuahutemoc Cardenas seems to have finally reconciled to the fact that Lopez Obrador is the party's candidate. At least, he seems to have told it to his son, "Lazarito" Cardenas, the gov'nor of Michoacan. "Engineer", as the old guy likes to be called, still seems to be unable to force himself to make a public pronouncement, so we are to trust Lazarito that his father "supports" the candidate and even said that much in some closed party meeting.  A ringing endorsement, isn't it? Just to make clear what this means, Engineer did endorse someone this week in public - a candidate in the Party's primary for the Mayor of Mexico City (needless to say, the lucky guy was not the presumptive endorsee of Lopez Obrador).   

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting stuff; keep it coming please

[ag]

The (major party) candidates are all chosen and (almost) official and now, 8.5 months before the election, we have a race! Today’s Reforma poll (normally these are considered among the best – if not the best – locally; nationwide sample of 1515 voters with 2.5% MOE taken Nov. 11-14) has a dead heat:

Lopez Obrador (PRD): 29%
Calderon (PAN) – 28%
Madrazo (PRI) – 21%
de la Garza (Green) – 7%
Mercado (a minor new party) – 1%
Castañeda (independent and unlikely to be allowed on the ballot) – 1%

The regional breakdowns are quite interesting as well. They divided the country into 4 regions:

North (Baja California Norte and Sur, Coahuila, Chihuahua, Durango, Nuevo Leon,  San Luis Potosi, Sinaloa, Sonora, Tamaulipas and Zacatecas): Calderon 33%, Madrazo 23%, Lopez Obrador 22%, de la Garza 4%

Northwest (Aguascalientes, Colima, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacan and Nayarit): Calderon 37%, Madrazo 20%, Lopez Obrador 19%, de la Garza 7%

Center (Mexico City, Mexico State, Hidalgo, Morelos, Puebla, Queretaro and Tlaxcala): Lopez Obrador 41%, Calderon 22%, Madrazo 15%, de la Garza 10%!

South (Campeche, Chiapas, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, Veracruz and Yucatan): Madrazo 29%, Lopez Obrador 28 %, Calderon 28 %, de la Garza 5%

Personal approvals (Mexicans are very polite and loath to personally disapprove, I guess!):

Lopez Obrador : positives 47, negatives 13, neutrals 27 and don’t knows 13
Calderon: positives 45, negatives 11, neutrals 24 and don’t knows 20
Madrazo: positives 29, negatives 29, neutrals 29, don’t knows 13
de la Garza: positives 26, negatives 17, neutrals 28 and don’t knows 29

Do you plan to vote for the “best” candidate, or for the “least bad” (could be interpreted as a "strength of commitment" question):
“Best” 45%, “least bad” 38%, don’t know 17%

Of those who answered “best” 33% plan to vote for Calderon, 31% for Lopez Obrador, 24% for Madrazo and 4% for de la Garza; of those who answered “least bad” 36% go for Lopez Obrador, 28% for Calderon, 15% for Madrazo and 12 % for de la Garza

If they were history characters, whom would they be (choices are hero, villain, reformer):
Lopez Obrador: hero 32%, villain 16%, reformer 29%
Calderon: hero 19%, villain 9%, reformer 24%
Madrazo: hero 13%, villain 48%, reformer 17%

Voting intentions for Congress (elections are the same day as the presidency, next July):
PAN 27%
PRI 23%
PRD 23%
Greens 7%
Everybody else 1% or less
Won’t vote: 2% (Mexicans are polite people and hate to be rude!)
Don’t know 6%
Didn’t answer 8%

To sum up: Calderon and PAN are up (relatively clean primary, underdog victory and disassociation from the unpopular administration, no bad news and increasingly clean image – at least, in comparison); Lopez Obrador and PRD are stagnating (no primary, controversial, if inspiring, candidate, minor corruption scandals, sulking Engineer: see Michoacan and the Northwest!; not much success expanding in the North); Madrazo and PRI are doing badly (villainous candidate, farcical primary, major scandals, railroaded, raped and very unhappy state leaders, especially in the North and Center; bitter break-up with the teachers union: complete, with hair-pulling and dishes flying in public); freakish Greens (family vote-selling business for hire seems to be doing great with a young face on campaign posters).  The race is on!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Madrazo: villain 48%,

No comment needed!

[WMS]

South (Campeche, Chiapas, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, Veracruz and Yucatan): Madrazo 29%, Lopez Obrador 28 %, Calderon 28 %, de la Garza 5%

Madrazo in the lead? What are they thinking in Southern Mexico!

[ag]

Latest poll results from Mexico's presidential race:

Reforma, Jan. 14-15 2006, a sample of 1515 adults from all 31 states and the Federal District, of whom 1337 responded that they had a valid voter ID. The margin of error 2.7% (95% confidence interval). A total of 104 interviewers and 40 supervisors. Judging by the phone number they provide, this is, really, a "university poll" (in fact,  my university poll - I know them!), but it is considered quite reliable. Come to think about this, I was aware of this piece of information even before - but it always nice to see a phone number just couple digits off your own office.

All voters:
Lopez Obrador (PRD) 34% (+5)
Calderon (PAN) 26% (-2)
Madrazo (PRI) 22% (+1)
Mercado (Alianza Social Democrata y Campesina) 2%
Campa (Panal) 1%
Don't know/none 15%

Voters who decided on the candidate and said that they have the valid voter's ID (the last day to apply for a new card was Jan. 15, though voters will be getting the cards for another month and those who lose their card have until Feb. 28 to apply for a replacement).
Lopez Obrador 40%
Calderon 30%
Madrazo 26%
Campa 2%
Mercado 2%

Regional:
North (Baja California, Baja California Sur, Coahuila, Chihuahua, Durango, Nuevo Leon, San Luis Potosi, Sinaloa, Sonora, Tamaulipas y Zacatecas)
Calderon 40%
Madrazo 32%
Lopez Obrador 26%
Mercado 2%
Campa 0%

Center-West (Aguascalientes, Colima, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacan y Nayarit)
Calderon 41%
Lopez Obrador 32%
Madrazo 23%
Campa 2%
Mercado 2%

Center (Mexico City, Mexico State, Hidalgo, Morelos, Puebla, Queretaro y Tlaxcala)
Lopez Obrador 53% (!!)
Calderon 22%
Madrazo 19%
Campa 3%
Mercado 3%
Note: the extraordinary results in the center might be explained by the Sunday PRD primaries for local/congressional offices in Mexico City. While for an entire month the presidential candidates themselves couldn't campaign, the PRD "pre-candidates" have plastered the city with yellow signs, all pledging to support Lopez Obrador.  Likewise, Mercado and Campa (Gordillo) have been particularly active in Mexico City.

South (Campeche, Chiapas, Guererro, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, Veracruz, Yucatan)
Lopez Obrador 41%
Madrazo 32%
Calderon 25%
Campa 1%
Mercado 1%

Is it better for the president to be single or married (Obrador is widowed, the others are married)

Not very important either way - 54%
Married - 40%
Single - 2%
Don't know - 4%

Is it important for the president to speak English (Calderon is fluent - he studied for a couple of graduate degrees in the U.S. I am not certain about Madrazo, but he is likely to be somewhat competent - he spends lots of time in his Florida condo; I don't know about Lopez Obrador):

Yes, it is important - 82%
No, unimportant - 15%
Don't know - 3%

If the elections for Congress were today, whom would you vote for:
PAN - 27%
Alliance for the good of all (PRD-PT-Convergencia) 26%
Alliance for Mexico (PRI-PVEM) 26%
Nueva Alianza (Panal) 3%
Alternativa Socialdemocrata y Campesina 2%
Don't know/Didn't answer - 17%

Excluding  those who don't know:
PAN - 32%
Alliance for the good of all (PRD-PT-Convergencia) 32%
Alliance for Mexico (PRI-PVEM) 31%
Nueva Alianza (Panal) 3%
Alternativa Socialdemocrata y Campesina 2%

In other news, both Madrazo and Calderon have published statements about their property (cars, houses, bank accounts, their's and their spouses). Madrazo is rich - almost $40 mln. pesos (just under $4 mln dollars) - not bad for a lifetime public servant and politician of modest origins. Calderon is well off: about $8 mln pesos ($800,000 dollars) - sort of expected of someone of his social class; half of that is his house in a middle class neighborhood (this sounds mostly right, though I'd expect such house to be slightly more expensive if he were to put it on the market now, though not by much - a retired midlevel government engineer/ university professor I know has just bought something similar not far).

[YoMartin]

Yes, we should move this from the Peru thread over here. About Mexico Posible, isn´t Alternativa Socialdemócrata the same thing with a different label? (BTW, in Latin America socialdemocracy is a very middle class ideology, who could buy peasants are with them?). I don´t know much about them, I simply liked the idea of a center left party without the populism (and corruption?) of AMLO. I see Madrazo´s financial status is ok, I was worried he would become poor and unemployed when he lost the election... . Lopez Obrador´s numbers in the center are impressive, but do you think he can really get that 30ish% in the north, where PRD´s organization is weaker? This PRI "en masse" defection would benefit mostly PAN or Lopez Obrador could get some PRI operatives as well?

Personal question (if you don´t mind): which one´s your university? And when you mentioned a colleague, in what field?

PS: is it possible that this "Dr Simi" guy has a relative in the same bussiness of selling low price drugs in other parts of Latin America? I think there are 2 different chains of that sort in Argentina, both belonging to mexicans and -as far as I knew-, the owners were related to each other. Still, what they sell still needs to be approved by the institute in charge.

[ag]

1. I guess, Alternativa Socialdemocrata is indeed the same thing as Mexico Posible (Patricia Mercado sure was/is in both). Who really cares? The main objective of such a party is to get 2% of the vote to be able to run the next time in a coalition with a major party, get its share of congressional seats and mayoralties and the subsidies from the Electoral Institute. They are not viable as independent forces - even if they might think otherwise. Getting Castañeda could have been a coup for them, and ideologically there isn't much of an obstacle, but Castañeda was bent on running as independent, no matter how illegal this is by Mexican law. Also, there is a small problem of what to do with Mercado.  In any case, it is far from clear that they would have created problems for PRD - they'd take more votes from PAN (virtually everyone I know who could have voted for Castañeda will vote for Calderon).

2. The North includes two (though small) states overwhelmingly controlled by PRD (BJS and Zacatecas) - they might get large majorities there. Elsewhere, its hard to say what they'd really get. Obrador has been developing his own support networks (separate from PRD) and he has been courting the left wing of the PRI for years (in fact, he is increasingly surrounded by recent PRI defectors). The first thing to figure out is what will the newly dissident PRI establishment do. I guess, a lot depends on what people like Governor Bours (of Sonora) decide - if they put the local PRI machine (quietly) behind either Calderon or Lopez Obrador the results would change sharply. Another unknown is what Elba Gordillo will do. My conjecture is that she will, eventually, make the Teachers' Union and Panal into informal Calderon's subsidiaries, but if she just stays anti-Madrazo, the teachers would have a free vote (it is highly unlikely she joins up with Lopez Obrador).

3. Allow me not to name the university - I'd like a bit of anonymity here (who knows, there might be a potential student here). I am a (neo-liberal ) economist.

4. I think I've known Dr. Simi had smthg in Central America - have now clue about the rest of the continent. Most likely, it's indeed him and some of his cousins - Mexican industry is very inbred. There are different levels of approval: what he sells seems not to be outright poisonous; but he claims his drugs to be chemically identical to approved medications, while nobody really knows if they are. The production process is very important - and nobody knows what are the standards under which his stuff is produced. At least, the Mexican authorities refuse to approve his drugs for public hospitals (and he refuses to run trials), and the doctors seem to agree (decent doctors usually warn their patients not to buy anything in these farmacies).

[YoMartin]

1. Oh, I thought Alternativa was a larger organization. And you´re probably right, regardless of ideology their middle class appeal would cause more trouble to PAN than to PRD.

1.1 I favor the law banning independent candidates. I don´t know how could Castañeda be an effective president without some organization in the legislative and sub-national arenas. Well, I know, pork and corruption can do the job (or an autogolpe, in Fujimori´s case) but that´s quite expensive.

2. Thanks for the info. Seems strange to see a union backing a right wing, middle class, candidate, ins´t it? Teacher´s unions are quite lefty in other parts of the continent.

3. It´s ok, I was mainly interested in the field. The "neo-liberal" addenda tells me where your own vote may go

[ag]

bump (to avoid topic duplication)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What type of person votes PRI? It seems like an odd party to get so many votes in a truly free election. What's the demographic and mindset of your average PRI voter?

[ag]

What type of person votes PRI? It seems like an odd party to get so many votes in a truly free election. What's the demographic and mindset of your average PRI voter?

Every type of person votes PRI. What exactly surprises you? A lot of people vote PRI for historical/patriotic reasons. It is the party of Mexican nationalism, of Mexican Revolution, and generally of Mexican patriotism (hey, their colors are the national colors - would you vote against your flag ?). A lot of people vote for PRI for stability sake - the devil you know. A lot of people vote for venal reasons - the old PRI machine, in places, still can get you some sensible goodies. A lot of people vote for a candidate, not for the party: there are quite a few good candidates running under the banner (for instance, the PRI candidate for Mexico City mayor - Beatriz Paredes - is by far the best alternative that will be on the ballot in July; pity she has almost no chance - the PRI almost never gets elected even dogcatchers in the city; though, given how uninspiring the PRD hack running for the mayor is, she just might). A lot of people are voting against the alternatives: the "mad/treasonous/populist/dangerous" (pick your favorite) PRD and the "clerical/treasonous/rich/impotent" (pick your favorite) PAN. A lot of people vote PRI because they always did (are there REALLY other parties?).

The demographic - basically, a cross-section of the society, with some exceptions. Now, the party has a truly horrible candidate in Roberto Madrazo this time, so in the end they might perform badly - but this would be because of the candidate.

[ag]

On March 12 there will be state elections in Mexico State - the largest state in the country (15 mln. people), surrounding the capital city on three sides, tough not including it. State congress, local councils and mayors are being elected (elections for governor were held last year for a 6-year term, and PRI held the seat). For this reason, Reforma has run a poll of mayoral elections in 7 large municipalities within the state: 6 Mexico City suburbs and the state capital Toluca. In addition they've asked about the presidential preferences for July. In each city 620 likely voters were asked (not very large samples, but huge, given that these are municipal polls).  The state is currently ruled by PRI on all levels, but PRI is actually weak and out of power in the polled municipalities (these together have somewhat more than a third of the state population):

The following are presidential preferences in % of those actually expressing preference (roughly 90% of the total):

1. Nezahualcoyotl (a huge - 1.5 mln. people - mostly extremely poor eastern suburb, PRD stronghold):

Lopez Obrador (PRD) 69%
Calderon (PAN) 17%
Madrazo (PRI) 12%
Others 2%

2. Ecatepec (the largest - nearly 2mln. people - northeastern suburb, largely poor, with middle class enclaves)

Lopez Obrador (PRD) 57%
Calderon (PAN) 21%
Madrazo (PRI) 19%
Others 3%

3. Naucalpan (a largish – some 1.2 mln. people – northwestern suburb, combination of solid middle class areas and poorer parts)
Lopez Obrador (PRD) 44%
Calderon (PAN) 33%
Madrazo (PRI) 19%
Others 4%

4. Tlalnepantla (a largish – some 800 thousand people – northern suburb, similar to, tough slightly poorer than Naucalpan)
Lopez Obrador (PRD) 43%
Calderon (PAN) 38%
Madrazo (PRI) 14%
Others 5%

5. Atizapan (a smaller western suburb, some fairly rich areas, some mixed areas, some poor villages)
Lopez Obrador (PRD) 39%
Calderon (PAN) 38%
Madrazo (PRI) 19%
Others 4%

6. Huixquilucan (a smallish western suburb, some of the “filthiest rich” areas in the country, though some poor villages as well)

Lopez Obrador (PRD) 39%
Calderon (PAN) 32%
Madrazo (PRI) 28%
Others 1%

In contrast, Toluca, - a midsize state capital (there are a few hundred thousand people within the municipality, though there are several million in the metro area; it’s a major industrial city, mixture of all sorts of classes – neither filthy rich, nor very poor) which is outside of the metropolitan Mexico City and, thus, less susceptible to the influence of
its former mayor Lopez Obrador presents a radically different picture:

Calderon (PAN) 40%
Lopez Obrador (PRD) 30%
Madrazo (PRI) 28%
Others 2%

[ag]

And now the mayoral polls:

1.   Nezahualcoyotl
Bautista (PRD) 64%
Quiles (PRI and PVEM) 17%
Martinez (PAN) 15%
Ramos (PT) 2%
Hernandez (Convergencia)2%

2.   Ecatepec
Bedolla (PRI-PVEM) 38%
Gutierrez (PRD-PT) 35%
Alexander (PAN) 24%
Espindola (Convergencia) 3%

3.   Naucalpan
Duran (PAN) 43%
Parra (PRI-PVEM) 29%
Bacilio (PRD-PT-Convergencia) 28%

4.   Tlalnepantla
Rodriguez (PAN) 45%
Del Toro (PRD) 29%
Malpaca (PRI-PVEM) 23%
Aguilar (Convergencia) 3%

5.   Atizapan
Alarcon (PAN) 53%
Velez (PRI-PVEM) 24%
Yanez (PRD-PT-Convergencia) 23%

6.   Huixquilucan
Fuentes (PRI-PVEM) 47%
Inzunza (PAN) 36%
Enriquez (PRD-PT) 16%
Galvan (Convergencia) 1%

7.   Toluca
Sanchez (PAN) 48%
Miranda (PRI-PVEM) 42%
Lara (PRD) 7%
Chavarria (PT-Convergencia) 3%

[ag]

Mexico State elections on Sunday. Though reporting is still unfinished, it seems conclusions can be made already. PRI (in coalition w/PVEM nearly everywhere, so I will not mention PVEM) and, especially, PAN did slightly worse than in 2003, PRD gained substantially, becoming the second party both in municipal and legislative vote (there it has come close to matching PRI, in fact), but overall results are strikingly similar to the last election. I will start w/ the municipal vote (though there are still some mayoralties that are too close to call). The turnout was low - barely above the 2003 midterm election (and w/ growing population, possibly not even that). What follows are results of the vote for municipal presidents (mayors) of the largest municipalities in the state (according to the 2000 census). I will try to report every municipality w/ at least 75 thousand residents.

1.  Ecatepec (1.62 mln in 2000)
PRD/PT pickup from PRI is by far the biggest prize of the day! W 2/3 of the precincts reporting the 14 thousand vote lead seems insurmountable (PRD/PT 100,233:PRI 86,211:PAN 52,959)

2. Nezahualcoyotl (1.224 mln. in 2000)
Easy PRD hold. PRD is on track to improve on its spectacular 50.3% in 2003 (with multiple parties, absolute majorities are extremely rare).

3. Naucalpan (858 thousand in 2000)
Easy PAN hold, though possibly with a slightly reduced majority. PRD/PT overcome PRI for the second spot.

4. Tlalnepantla (721 thousand in 2000)
Another easy PAN hold, though the majority is reduced sharply (last time it was 54%, this time it will be around 40-45%). Once again, PRD/PT comes second ahead of PRI.

5. Toluca (666 thousand in 2000)
The state capital is PAN's brightes spot of the night! Easy hold with sharply increased majority. Whereas last time it was 39% for PAN vs. 37% for PRI, this time PAN is likely to get well above 50%. PRD seems to collapse into local insignifficance (below 10% even if you include the PT that chose to fight this one separately from PRD).

6. Chimalhuacan (490 thousand in 2000)
PRI's one surviving top-ten municipality, a hold, though this time w/ a rather slim margin over PRD/PT this time. PAN hasn't been a major player here, might get 10%, which would be an improvement over the last time.

7. Atizapan de Zaragoza (467 thousand in 2000)
PAN holds easily, possibly reaching 50% this time (up from 43% last time). PRI does worse, but keeps the second spot, hotly pursued by PRD/PT/Convergencia combine.

8. Cuatitlan Izcalli (453 thousand in 2000)
PAN holds easily, PRI second, PRD third - exactly like last time.

9.Tultitlan (432 thousand in 2000)
PRD/PT holds easily w/ an increased majority (though still under 50%) over PRI, PAN remains distant third.

10. Valle de Chalco Solidaridad (323 thouand in 2000)
PRD easily holds, PRI drops, PAN third. Exactly as above, but w/ a quirk that this time PT is allied w/ PAN (yes, this also happens).

Of the top 10 municipalities PAN holds 5, PRD now has 4 (+1 - the biggest of them all), and PRI drops to 1 (-1).

11. Ixtapaluca (293 thousand in 2000)
PRD gains from PRI attaining 50%! PAN is now even more insignifficant then before (under 10%).

12. Nicolas Romero (269 thousand in 2000)
The second-biggest upset of the night. PRI gains from PAN w/ a good lead (and PAN had over 49% last time!). PRD improves significantly, but remains distant third.

13. Coacalco (252 thousand in 2000)
Another PAN disaster tonight. PRI gains it from PAN and is in a close race w/ PRD, while PAN drops to third!

14. Chalco (222 thousand in 2000)
Last time it was an exact draw between PRI and PRD! (I don't remember how it was resolved). This time there is nothing to resolve, w/ PRD in a clear lead. PAN remains distant third, gaining a few - but too few to compete - votes, though.

15. La Paz (213 thousand in 2000)
PRD gain from PRI on a good-sized swing. PAN would have avoided embarassment the second time in a row if it skipped this town completely.

16. Texcoco (204 thousand in 2000)
PRD hold. Last time it was close, this time it is not - PRD comes close to 60%. PRI this time is distant second, PAN remains even more distant third. 

17. Metepec (194 thousand in 2000)
A three-way split in Toluca suburbs that is still too close to call. It was also a three-way (even 4-way) last time, but PAN won w/ 31% of the vote. In this year's replay PRD/PT so far has 22,812 votes (most of it on the PT line, actually), PAN has 22,615 and PRI 22,319. Still 7 precincts out of 221 to report, and a lot of work for the electoral tribunal.

18. Huixquilucan (193 thousand in 2000)
The richest suburb of Mexico City is likewise too close to call, but this one is only a two-way. Last time it was, actually, three-way, w/ PRI getting it w/33%, w/ 28% each for PAN and PRD (PRD, in fact, was slightly ahead of PAN). This time PRD/PT dropped far behind, leaving it for PAN and PRI to play out. They produced another cliff-hanger, w/ 20,211 votes for PRI and 19,468 votes for PAN (PRD/PT, so far, has less then 8 thousand votes). W/ 17 out of 218 precincts still left to report, anything can still happen.

19. San Felipe del Progreso (177 thousand in 2000)
PRI hold fairly easily. PRD overcome PAN for the second spot.

20. Tecamac (172  thousand in 2000)
Another cliff-hanger, though this one might produce a PAN pick-up. Last time PRI had an easy victory w/ 49% for PAN's 31%. This is a very fast-growing exurb, though, and the population must have changed. This time we have, so far, PAN leading w/ 25,791 votes for PRI's 25,328 (PRD is under 10 thousand). W/10 out of 215 precincts still to report, it is still too close to call.

21. Zinacantepec (122 thousand in 2000)
Very similar to Tecamac. Last time PRI got it in close fight w/ PT, w/ PAN and PRD left behind. This time, it is even a closer fight between PAN and PRI. PAN, so far leads w/ 10,697 votes for PRI's 10,489. PT is under 8 thousand, and PRD is under 5 - they sure wish now they had a joint candidate (together they top 12 thousand easily).

22. Ixtlahuaca (116 thousand in 2000)
Last time it was Convergencia's biggest success in close fight w/PRI. This time PRI revenged, attaining an easy victory. Convergencia is second, PAN is third, PRD is fourth.

23. Almoloya de Juarez (111 thousand in 2000)
PRI, PRD, PAN comfortably spaced, exactly as last time. Easy PRI hold. The only change is Convergencia replacing PT as the fourth force.

24. Zumpango (100 thousand in 2000)
Easy PRI hold. PAN and PRD fought hard for the second spot - PRD got it this time, by a couple of votes, but both are far behind PRI.

25. Lerma (100 thousand in 2000)
Exactly as Zumpango. Easy PRI hold.

26. Tejupilco (95 thousand in 2000)
PRI gains from PRD (this is the biggest PRD loss of the day - which simply says how successful PRD is this time). PAN far behind.

27. Tultepec (93 thousand in 2000)
Last time PRD just got it, this time PRD/PT gets over 50%. PRI second, PAN third, if that matters. PRD hold.

28. Chicoloapan (78 thousand in 2000)
As Tultepec, but PRD majority is actually reduced this time. PRI gave it a run for the money, but still PRD hold

29. Tenancingo (77 thousand in 2000)
PRD comes from the third spot to win it in a close three-way race. PRI second, PAN third. PRD pickup from PRI.

30. Atlacomulco (77 thousand in 2000)
Easy PRI hold. PAN second, PRD - third (as last time).

31. Cuatitlan (76 thousand in 2000)
PRI holds easily. PRD overtakes PAN for second.

This leaves me w/ another 94 municipalities of the state, but even my insomnia is insufficient to do them . Updates on cliff-hangers and results of the state legislative election tomorrow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting stuff; thanks

[Frodo]

Leftist candidate gets boost in hopes to win Mexican presidency

By Ioan Grillo
ASSOCIATED PRESS
12:47 p.m. March 13, 2006

MEXICO CITY – Leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador got a boost in his hopes to gain the Mexican presidency Monday with a new opinion poll showing him 10 points ahead of his closest rival and his party making a surprisingly strong showing in local elections in the nation's most- populous state.

Analysts said the gains, which come less than four months before the July 2 presidential ballot, demonstrate the ability of Lopez Obrador to connect with voters outside his leftist base and reflect a weak campaign by the conservative candidate Felipe Calderon.

“Lopez Obrador looks like a very difficult man to beat,” said George Grayson, a Mexico expert at the College of William & Mary in Williamsburg, Virginia. “Only a tremendous scandal could rock him now.”

The poll, conducted by Mexico City newspaper El Universal, gave Lopez Obrador, the former mayor of the capital, 42 percent of the vote compared to 32 percent for Calderon, of President Vicente Fox's National Action Party.

Roberto Madrazo, of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which ruled Mexico for most of the 20th century, was in third place with 24 percent.

The survey was conducted based on personal interviews with 1,500 adults from March 3-6. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. 

link

[YoMartin]

This leaves me w/ another 94 municipalities of the state, but even my insomnia is insufficient to do them .

I´m starting to get seriously worried about your health... Still, interesting stuff. AMLO seems to be going straight to the presidency...