The Case for Kasich as POTUS

[PeteB]

Kasich seems to be continuously underestimated by all the pundits yet here he is, in the final three.  And even after his trouncing of Trump by over 11 points in OH, not many seem to be taking him seriously!?!

As I have been predicting all along, he is in the final round(s) with Trump and we shall see how that battle will develop!  Here is a detailed case why I believe he will end up as the GOP nominee and, assuming he beats Clinton, the next POTUS:

1. He is the most qualified
Yes, the mantra is that voters don't want (Washington) experience in this election, and would prefer an outsider, but I just don't buy it.  At some point realization has to set in that experience matters.  We can all dream that we are qualified to personally coach the Dallas Cowboys, or that an outsider can come in and effectively command the world's largest military and economy, but unfortunately neither is true.  Until recently there were a few other choices, but now we are down to three.  Cruz has some government experience but very little actual professional experience and is simply viewed as not a team-player and a "loose cannon".  Trump presides over a large private company, where he answers to noone and simply doesn't even understand the obstacles he would be faced with, in a US democratic check and balance system. In addition to the lack of government experience, he has a questionable work ethic (he has had ample time to beef up on the issues, and he still sounds like a Reality TV contestant, rather than a candidate for POTUS).  If this was the Great Depression, maybe such a populist candidate could get elected, but not today!  Kasich on the other hand has governing experience in spades, actual results on the resume, a happy electorate in his own state and, while we can disagree with any of his policies, choosing him is safe and does not threaten the stability of the system and our whole way of life!

2. Republicans Want to Win in November
The GOP has been shut out of the White House for eight years.  No Republican wants to extend that to twelve.  Yet only the most ardent partisans can delude themselves that Trump or Cruz could win in November!  Cruz couldn't get elected Committee Chair by his own colleagues in the Senate, let alone POTUS.  He is too inexperienced, too divisive and too right wing for the bulk of the electorate.  And, while Trump fires up supporters, he fires up his detractors even more.  Yes he could pick up some of the down-and-out white Democrats, but he would energize every Democrat who hasn't voted for years and every independent who is concerned about his family future, to come out and vote against him.  And, whatever I think of Clinton, she would make mincemeat out of his simplistic messages and lack of policies or ethical positions.  If he turns aggressively against her, as he has done in this cycle, he will drive every female voter and every independent away.  In fact, I will be so bold as to say that even an indicted Hillary Clinton would probably beat Trump (as he is now) in November.  Kasich is the only GOP candidate, from these three, who could appeal to independents and even Democrats and could actually beat Hillary Clinton.

3. People want good energy
Yes, I know it sounds naive counterintuitive to this cycle where "people are angry", and many believe that no politician means what they say and they are all lyin' crooks.  But people still need positive role models and want to feel good about their lives.  And as badly as some have fared in the current economy, people want assurance that they are not stepping into an even riskier situation!  Neither Trump nor Cruz provide that.  You can argue whether Kasich is too "preachy", but he does convey positive energy (PS for Trump supporters even Low Energy is better than Negative Energy ).  With a field of three, this will be more evident and people will notice.

4. It's a different ball game now
The race has changed dramatically, with only three candidates, and anyone who is using past month's data and "pundit rationale", to predict the future, will be very surprised.  There will be a change in tone and discourse in the race.  This will become a more serious race and any additional Trump theatrics will start backfiring on him.  In fact, Trump's utter lack of knowledge of the issues will become glaringly obvious.  With noone but Kasich to challenge Trump in most of the remaining states (especially in the NorthEast, where Cruz is a side player), Kasich will be able to win or significantly damage Trump in states that until recently were thought of as Trump bastions.  All three candidates may end up with a decent chunk of delegates.  Or Trump may self-destruct after he starts losing - who knows?

That is why I think Kasich will be the next POTUS.  Ultimately, the partisanship of the primary voters may prove me wrong, and he may not even get the chance.  But, on one thing I am convinced - this will be either a Clinton vs Kasich election, for a close race or a Clinton vs Anybody else election, for a Democratic Landslide.  The GOP voters can decide which one they like more!  But, don't say that you have not been warned.

[Maxwell]

All evidence seems to point to Republicans not giving a rip about winning in November - every poll in every state shows that is the smallest of their priorities.

[Senator-elect Spark]

I totally agree

[IceSpear]

Nobody's taking him seriously because it's impossible for him to get a plurality of delegates, much less a majority.

That said, he could be a major player at a brokered convention.

[Averroës Nix]

So, when do you start showing your PowerPoint to Republican delegates in anticipation of a contested convention?

[The Mikado]

You do realize that it's literally mathematically impossible for him to hit 1237, right?

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

The case against:

1. He's already been rejected by the voting public.

[Blair]

Eh he's like a less centrist Huntsman-looks like a moderate/sensible choice for POTUS but a lot of what he did in congress/in Ohio is very questionable

[PeteB]

Part II - The Kasich Path to Victory

1. 1,237 Delegates
Many comments are raising the fact that Kasich cannot mathematically reach 1,237 delegates, before the convention. While that is true, it really does not matter because realistically (as opposed to theoretically) at this point nobody can. Cruz certainly can't do it, with the three of them still competing, and while Trump could come very close, it is highly unlikely that he will. Therefore this one is going to the Convention, where nobody would have the necessary votes on the first ballot.

2. Convention Environment
The GOP Convention is being held in Cleveland and organized by the Ohio Republican party, which is loyal to Kasich. That alone gives Kasich some procedural advantages. By that time, Trump's negatives will begin to be felt in the media and with voters, especially the independent swing voters. Democrats will be playing up his negatives and running ads.  GOP will be genuinely looking who can get elected, and the delegates would vote in subsequent ballots, not out of loyalty to Trump, Cruz or Kasich, but out of necessity to try and win the Presidency, and hold its control of Congress.

3. Later Ballot Choices
After the initial ballots, the delegates will have a choice to nominate someone else, other than the three candidates. However that course of action would compromise the GOP Candidate from the start (the Democrats would have a field day with someone like Romney who"didn't run but used backroom deals"). To have any general election credibility, the only candidate which makes sense is one of the aforementioned three! And as I said, the only electable one is Kasich. Unless, Trump and Cruz team up on the first or second ballot, Kasich will eventually be the nominee!

[ProudModerate2]

I think Kasich could be a good President.
But, highly doubt there is a chance for him.

[Maxwell]

Trump is the only one who has a path to 1237 delegates, as narrowly as that is. And even if Trump is within 50 delegates, they will realize how bad taking away his nomination will be for the party in 2016 and in the future.

[OSR stands with Israel]

All evidence seems to point to Republicans not giving a rip about winning in November - every poll in every state shows that is the smallest of their priorities.

Ya unfortunately and we will have President Hillary Clinton who has  the worst policies of Bush Jr and Obama all wrapped into one

[OSR stands with Israel]

You do realize that it's literally mathematically impossible for him to hit 1237, right?

Nope he can still reach 1237 by round 2 or 3 at the convention, which means he won 1237 delegates

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well, a Kasich vs Hillary matchup probably does mean President Kasich.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Unless, Trump and Cruz team up on the first or second ballot,

I suspect that this will happen and I don't know why most discussions of how a brokered convention might go aren't considering it.

[Sir Mohamed]

The Problem with Kasich is, that he's running in the wrong year in the wrong party.

[SillyAmerican]

Part II - The Kasich Path to Victory

1. 1,237 Delegates
Many comments are raising the fact that Kasich cannot mathematically reach 1,237 delegates, before the convention. While that is true, it really does not matter because realistically (as opposed to theoretically) at this point nobody can. Cruz certainly can't do it, with the three of them still competing, and while Trump could come very close, it is highly unlikely that he will. Therefore this one is going to the Convention, where nobody would have the necessary votes on the first ballot.

2. Convention Environment
The GOP Convention is being held in Cleveland and organized by the Ohio Republican party, which is loyal to Kasich. That alone gives Kasich some procedural advantages. By that time, Trump's negatives will begin to be felt in the media and with voters, especially the independent swing voters. Democrats will be playing up his negatives and running ads.  GOP will be genuinely looking who can get elected, and the delegates would vote in subsequent ballots, not out of loyalty to Trump, Cruz or Kasich, but out of necessity to try and win the Presidency, and hold its control of Congress.

3. Later Ballot Choices
After the initial ballots, the delegates will have a choice to nominate someone else, other than the three candidates. However that course of action would compromise the GOP Candidate from the start (the Democrats would have a field day with someone like Romney who"didn't run but used backroom deals"). To have any general election credibility, the only candidate which makes sense is one of the aforementioned three! And as I said, the only electable one is Kasich. Unless, Trump and Cruz team up on the first or second ballot, Kasich will eventually be the nominee!

Yes. And as I mentioned elsewhere, in the last 150 years, the GOP has had eight contested conventions, of which five ended up with a nominee other than the guy that was the frontrunner going in to that convention. So it's not like Governor Kasich is out of the question. I'm holding out hope that the #NeverTrump folks will find Kasich...

[emailking]

Nobody's taking him seriously because it's impossible for him to get a plurality of delegates, much less a majority.

It's not impossible for him to get a plurality of delegates.

[PeteB]

Unless, Trump and Cruz team up on the first or second ballot,

I suspect that this will happen and I don't know why most discussions of how a brokered convention might go aren't considering it.

Well, as you can see , I am considering it!

While this is certainly a plausible scenario, there are two major problems with it.

Firstly, either Trump or Cruz need to drop out and endorse the other. Both are frankly only interested in the Presidency and I can't see them sacrificing that, especially since there is no guarantee in their minds that either can win and "compensate" the other!  In fact, strategically it makes more sense that either one endorses Kasich and becomes a GOP kingmaker, with a lot of clout in the future Kasich administration.

Secondly, the delegates may not heed their advice!! Why would an evangelical IA Christian conservative delegate, who was supporting Cruz, suddenly switch to a "morally challenged" Trump (whom they fought all along to beat), over Kasich? Why would a MA moderate Trump delegate (who was probably considering Kasich as a second choice) switch to Cruz, whose conservative values may be totally out of sync with his or hers? Kasich is well positioned to pick up the support from both sides!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Secondly, the delegates may not heed their advice!! Why would an evangelical IA Christian conservative delegate, who was supporting Cruz, suddenly switch to a "morally challenged" Trump (whom they fought all along to beat), over Kasich? Why would a MA moderate Trump delegate (who was probably considering Kasich as a second choice) switch to Cruz, whose conservative values may be totally out of sync with his or hers? Kasich is well positioned to pick up the support from both sides!

In most states delegates are actually assigned by the party rather than chosen by the candidates, but I'm honestly not sure whether this fact makes your point better or worse.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Some of your points are valid, logical and well thought out.

The only issue with the 2016 Presidential Race is that the whole process lacks logic.

The chaotic nature of the election process has made the process of prediction more difficult.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Republicans don't care about winning in November. The primary voters literally have said they'd rather "prove a point" with Donald than actually win the White House.

Kasich is the only sane man left in the GOP race, which means he'll be the next to drop out. Sanity has no place in this primary, because it's better to buy into pipe dreams like deporting 11 million people, forcing a foreign nation build a wall, abolishing the IRS and instituting a flat tax.

[RINO Tom]

Trump is the only one who has a path to 1237 delegates, as narrowly as that is. And even if Trump is within 50 delegates, they will realize how bad taking away his nomination will be for the party in 2016 and in the future.

2016, sure (but Trump will lose anyway, so who cares?).  The future?  Fat chance.  Trump's nomination would set the party back for multiple cycles.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Kasich done his part of narrowly defeating Trump in Ohio. Now he'll return to electoral obscurity.

[Slander and/or Libel]

Part II - The Kasich Path to Victory

1. 1,237 Delegates
Many comments are raising the fact that Kasich cannot mathematically reach 1,237 delegates, before the convention. While that is true, it really does not matter because realistically (as opposed to theoretically) at this point nobody can. Cruz certainly can't do it, with the three of them still competing, and while Trump could come very close, it is highly unlikely that he will. Therefore this one is going to the Convention, where nobody would have the necessary votes on the first ballot.

2. Convention Environment
The GOP Convention is being held in Cleveland and organized by the Ohio Republican party, which is loyal to Kasich. That alone gives Kasich some procedural advantages. By that time, Trump's negatives will begin to be felt in the media and with voters, especially the independent swing voters. Democrats will be playing up his negatives and running ads.  GOP will be genuinely looking who can get elected, and the delegates would vote in subsequent ballots, not out of loyalty to Trump, Cruz or Kasich, but out of necessity to try and win the Presidency, and hold its control of Congress.

3. Later Ballot Choices
After the initial ballots, the delegates will have a choice to nominate someone else, other than the three candidates. However that course of action would compromise the GOP Candidate from the start (the Democrats would have a field day with someone like Romney who"didn't run but used backroom deals"). To have any general election credibility, the only candidate which makes sense is one of the aforementioned three! And as I said, the only electable one is Kasich. Unless, Trump and Cruz team up on the first or second ballot, Kasich will eventually be the nominee!

Yes. And as I mentioned elsewhere, in the last 150 years, the GOP has had eight contested conventions, of which five ended up with a nominee other than the guy that was the frontrunner going in to that convention. So it's not like Governor Kasich is out of the question. I'm holding out hope that the #NeverTrump folks will find Kasich...

When was the last of those contested conventions before 1976 (which wound up with Ford winning on the first ballot)? I'd submit that comparisons to eras before the advent of the modern primary process aren't particularly germane.