538 publishes first 50-state primary prediction (based solely on demographics)
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  538 publishes first 50-state primary prediction (based solely on demographics)
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Author Topic: 538 publishes first 50-state primary prediction (based solely on demographics)  (Read 2724 times)
Crumpets
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« on: March 15, 2016, 01:16:24 PM »
« edited: March 15, 2016, 01:27:02 PM by Thinking Crumpets Crumpet »

From this article: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-bernie-sanders-pull-off-an-upset-in-ohio/?ex_cid=538fb

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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2016, 01:22:04 PM »

South Dakota is going to be a pain in the butt this election cycle too, isn't it?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #2 on: March 15, 2016, 01:22:54 PM »

South Dakota is going to be a pain in the butt this election cycle too, isn't it?
Always South Dakota.
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America Needs Jesus Christ
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« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2016, 01:23:29 PM »

Wait, we got one more vote???
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: March 15, 2016, 01:25:43 PM »

South Dakota is going to be a pain in the butt this election cycle too, isn't it?
Always South Dakota.

All I want is a pretty map, is that too much to ask?
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Crumpets
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« Reply #5 on: March 15, 2016, 01:27:25 PM »


Changed Smiley
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Icefire9
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« Reply #6 on: March 15, 2016, 01:33:19 PM »

God Damn South Dakota (also West Virginia.)
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #7 on: March 15, 2016, 01:36:18 PM »

Well, as long as Sanders doesn't win both Illinois and Missouri today, Clinton's states will all be connected.
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Icefire9
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« Reply #8 on: March 15, 2016, 01:38:20 PM »

Well, as long as Sanders doesn't win both Illinois and Missouri today, Clinton's states will all be connected.
But imagine that map but with Sanders just winning Missouri.  Iowa and South Dakota would form the middle finger that they're giving those of us who want a pretty map.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #9 on: March 15, 2016, 01:41:03 PM »

God Damn South Dakota (also West Virginia.)
and RI...
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Shadows
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« Reply #10 on: March 15, 2016, 02:17:53 PM »

They are predicting Sanders losing Ohio, Missouri & Illinois!
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cxs018
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« Reply #11 on: March 15, 2016, 02:28:08 PM »

They've predicted a Clinton sweep. Let's see how that goes, shall we?
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Crumpets
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« Reply #12 on: March 15, 2016, 02:31:26 PM »

Their Missouri prediction is pretty narrow, something like 51-49. If Sanders wins by a point there, I don't think it would be reason to throw this completely out the window if the other numbers are reasonably consistent.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #13 on: March 17, 2016, 12:15:03 PM »
« Edited: March 17, 2016, 12:17:00 PM by RJEvans »

Well, they predicted right.

If we look back at their demographic projection and extrapolate delegates based on those projections, you get Clinton 1167, Sanders 818. NYT has them at 1139 and 825 respectively. I say that's a pretty accurate result. Looking ahead, based on their demographic predictions, Clinton wins an additional 1040 delegates and Sanders wins an additional 980. Clinton wins the nomination with about 370 pledged delegates to spare. She will have to wait until June 7 to officially say she is the nominee. If she can get another 145-150 superdelegates, she can win it outright on May 17. I'm sure her people are on this.

BTW, what is it about SD that favored Clinton in '08 and favors her now?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #14 on: March 17, 2016, 12:32:13 PM »

BTW, what is it about SD that favored Clinton in '08 and favors her now?

In '08 she was favored because this was the only Plains state that held a primary instead of a caucus and because she campaigned hard while Obama had already pivoted to the general election and spent his time campaigning in Michigan, Missouri and other swing states.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #15 on: March 17, 2016, 12:46:00 PM »

He was... right 8|
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Blue3
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« Reply #16 on: March 17, 2016, 02:20:08 PM »

I think Hillary will win RI
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #17 on: March 17, 2016, 02:21:50 PM »

They are predicting Sanders losing Ohio, Missouri & Illinois!

I also predicted it.
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Holmes
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« Reply #18 on: March 17, 2016, 02:59:12 PM »

I can't believe there was a time where many of us thought Sanders had a chance in Ohio.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #19 on: March 17, 2016, 03:09:47 PM »

While Sanders underperformed the model in OH, he actually overperformed in ever other 3/15 state. If he overperforms the model in the future like he did in the 3/15 states he could win AZ, PA, CT, NM and IN in addition to all the other states it predicts he would win. He would also end up with the majority of pledged delegates from the second half, although not enough to overcome Clinton's current lead.  

I wonder if they are going to make adjustments to the model based on the 3/15 results.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #20 on: March 17, 2016, 03:12:14 PM »

Actually a very nice map. SD, KY, and RI are a bit surprising, but I totally see where they're coming from.

I would be satisfied with this as the final result.
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