Democratic Ides of March Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET)

[Mr. Morden]

At 5pm, the networks will be given access to the early exit poll numbers.  So some time between about 5:10 and 5:30pm or so, we’ll start getting news reports from them about things like what percentage of the voters are Independents, what the top issues on voters’ minds are, etc.  But they’ll withhold the topline numbers (who is winning the exit poll) until all the polls have closed in a given state.

Overview of all results: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president

PRIMARIES

Polls close at 7:30pm ET

North Carolina
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/nc/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/north-carolina

Ohio
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/oh/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/ohio

Polls close at 7pm ET for most of the state, but 8pm ET in some of it

Florida
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/fl/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/florida

Polls close at 8pm ET

Illinois
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/il/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/illinois

Missouri
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mo/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/missouri

[Crumpets]

I imagine we'll get a pretty good idea of how the night is going when North Carolina closes. If they call it for Hillary straight away, she'll probably win at least three states. If we have to wait, it may be a long night for her all around.

[Sorenroy]

Well have a fun day everybody! I'll be working a precinct the entire day, so I won't see anything (besides if my mom sees something on the news) untill like 9:30.

[Eraserhead]

I imagine we'll get a pretty good idea of how the night is going when North Carolina closes. If they call it for Hillary straight away, she'll probably win at least three states. If we have to wait, it may be a long night for her all around.

Eh, I'm not sure that North Carolina will tell us too much about what IL/MO/OH are going to do. Those are very different ballgames. Clinton is going to win NC by a huge margin, they should be able to call it as soon as the polls close.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Well have a fun day everybody! I'll be working a precinct the entire day, so I won't see anything (besides if my mom sees something on the news) untill like 9:30.

Have fun! I tried to do that back when I did AP Gov, but I didn't get to (some of my friends did though).

[Panhandle Progressive]

I imagine we'll get a pretty good idea of how the night is going when North Carolina closes. If they call it for Hillary straight away, she'll probably win at least three states. If we have to wait, it may be a long night for her all around.

I'd like to remind everyone that it took over 10 minutes to call Mississippi even though Hillary won the state by 66%.

[bilaps]

I imagine we'll get a pretty good idea of how the night is going when North Carolina closes. If they call it for Hillary straight away, she'll probably win at least three states. If we have to wait, it may be a long night for her all around.

I'd like to remind everyone that it took over 10 minutes to call Mississippi even though Hillary won the state by 66%.

Where? CNN called it right away.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ratings for today's contests:

FL: Safe Clinton
NC: Likely Clinton
IL: Toss-Up/Tilt Sanders
OH: Toss-Up/Tilt Sanders
MO: Lean Sanders

[Shadows]

Ohio is a not looking great - I think Sanders will lose narrowly, by 3-4% odd. Illinois is a toss-up but Clinton will likely win with 1-2-3%.

Missouri is the only state I can see Bernie win.

A record turnout is the only thing which could beat the polls or severely tilt it to Sanders!

Best of luck to Hillary & Bernie supporters!

[Shadows]

Ratings for today's contests:

FL: Safe Clinton
NC: Likely Clinton
IL: Toss-Up/Tilt Sanders
OH: Toss-Up/Tilt Sanders
MO: Lean Sanders

I'm not sure how Ohio is Tilt Sanders if you look @ the polls - A bit worried about Ohio - Cheers!

[Gass3268]

Florida: Safe Clinton (Could be Sanders 2nd best Southern state)
Illinois: Toss Up (Not looking at the polls, gut feeling says Clinton)
Missouri: Lean Sanders (Plaines influence overpowers the Southern influence)
North Carolina: Safe Clinton (Will be Sanders best Southern state)
Ohio: Toss Up (Not looking at the polls, gut feeling says Sanders)

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Only state I'm really worrying about is Illinois tbh, don't really care for the others

[Wiz in Wis]

Florida: Safe Clinton
Illinois: Toss Up - Lean Clinton
Missouri: Toss Up - Lean Sanders
North Carolina: Safe Clinton
Ohio: Toss Up - No Lean

[psychprofessor]

The early exit polls always favor Bernie. They had him winning MA; up 8 in Michigan; winning NV; etc...and I'm not quite sure how the early vote in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina will impact the exit polls. For instance, over 850k early votes have been cast in Florida already - 67% of that vote is over 60. That should be a very strong Clinton demo - how will the exits handle these early votes will impact their first and second wave exit polls.

Also, early votes that come in places from Ohio and Illinois will trend Bernie as rural areas report first until Cuyahoga county and Cook county come in - much like we saw from Wayne county in Michigan.

[KingSweden]

On a (kind of) unrelated note about a protracted Democratic primary with a crucial Ohio contest, "Ides of March" is a sweet movie

[Shadows]

I'm not sure about the early exit polling.

I remember Sanders edging Clinton in Mass but also down in Oklahoma by 5% or more that that & he won by over 10%. Michigan also, I don't remember showing any early poll showing a loss.

These are weird superstitions or because people are picking & choosing facts to suit their theories.

[IceSpear]

Exits have been off in both directions numerous times (underestimating Bernie in IA/NH/OK, underestimating Hillary in NV/SC/MA/GA.) I wouldn't read too much into them.

[musicblind]

I'm heading to vote with my whole family at 2:00 pm.

I'm honest to goodness torn between Clinton and Sanders. I had been an ardent Clinton supporter because I think she has the gravitas and fortitude to win in the general. However, in recent weeks, I've discovered how much I really like Sanders' policies.

Then again, Sanders said in an interview, that he ran as a Democrat for media coverage. I'm a Democrat through and through. I want to vote for one.

Then again, I really did not like Clinton's answer on the death penalty at the last town hall and the money from big corporations does make me wonder.

However, I do think her college plan is much more realistic than Sanders. Sanders likely won't get any of the things he is promising done.

Also, Hillary is a little younger, and that makes a full 8 years more likely and I admire that she had a solid stance on healthcare as far back as the 90's.

But, if we look at someone's past. Sanders was a civil rights protester and Clinton was a Goldwater girl in her teens.

This is the first time I have ever been in the so-called "undecided" category. Even in a primary, I've always known who I wanted. I voted for Clinton last time in the primaries after attending stump speeches from both. But now, I don't know.

Hmm... this was a long and pointless stream of consciousness rant. Sorry about that!

[Fusionmunster]

I'm heading to vote with my whole family at 2:00 pm.

I'm honest to goodness torn between Clinton and Sanders. I had been an ardent Clinton supporter because I think she has the gravitas and fortitude to win in the general. However, in recent weeks, I've discovered how much I really like Sanders' policies.

Then again, Sanders said in an interview, that he ran as a Democrat for media coverage. I'm a Democrat through and through. I want to vote for one.

Then again, I really did not like Clinton's answer on the death penalty at the last town hall and the money from big corporations does make me wonder.

However, I do think her college plan is much more realistic than Sanders. Sanders likely won't get any of the things he is promising done.

Also, Hillary is a little younger, and that makes a full 8 years more likely and I admire that she had a solid stance on healthcare as far back as the 90's.

But, if we look at someone's past. Sanders was a civil rights protester and Clinton was a Goldwater girl in her teens.

This is the first time I have ever been in the so-called "undecided" category. Even in a primary, I've always known who I wanted. I voted for Clinton last time in the primaries after attending stump speeches from both. But now, I don't know.

Hmm... this was a long and pointless stream of consciousness rant. Sorry about that!

Not to push you one way or the other, but Hillary was a Goldwater girl when she was 16 years old. A more fair comparison would be to compare both of their activism during their time in College.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'm heading to vote with my whole family at 2:00 pm.

I'm honest to goodness torn between Clinton and Sanders. I had been an ardent Clinton supporter because I think she has the gravitas and fortitude to win in the general. However, in recent weeks, I've discovered how much I really like Sanders' policies.

Then again, Sanders said in an interview, that he ran as a Democrat for media coverage. I'm a Democrat through and through. I want to vote for one.

Then again, I really did not like Clinton's answer on the death penalty at the last town hall and the money from big corporations does make me wonder.

However, I do think her college plan is much more realistic than Sanders. Sanders likely won't get any of the things he is promising done.

Also, Hillary is a little younger, and that makes a full 8 years more likely and I admire that she had a solid stance on healthcare as far back as the 90's.

But, if we look at someone's past. Sanders was a civil rights protester and Clinton was a Goldwater girl in her teens.

This is the first time I have ever been in the so-called "undecided" category. Even in a primary, I've always known who I wanted. I voted for Clinton last time in the primaries after attending stump speeches from both. But now, I don't know.

Hmm... this was a long and pointless stream of consciousness rant. Sorry about that!

Not to push you one way or the other, but Hillary was a Goldwater girl when she was 16 years old. A more fair comparison would be to compare both of their activism during their time in College.

I mean, even behavior in college is somewhat unfair to bring up about people in their late sixties and seventies...

[Lief 🗽]

Clinton was a Goldwater girl in 1964, but she swung far to the left and supported Gene McCarthy and George McGovern in the next two elections.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Hopefully, as Caesar was struck down all those years ago, progressive voters will rise as one to slay the foul beast tonight.  Tis' your time of reckoning, Empress. 

[Shadows]

I'm heading to vote with my whole family at 2:00 pm.

I'm honest to goodness torn between Clinton and Sanders. I had been an ardent Clinton supporter because I think she has the gravitas and fortitude to win in the general. However, in recent weeks, I've discovered how much I really like Sanders' policies.

Then again, Sanders said in an interview, that he ran as a Democrat for media coverage. I'm a Democrat through and through. I want to vote for one.

Then again, I really did not like Clinton's answer on the death penalty at the last town hall and the money from big corporations does make me wonder.

However, I do think her college plan is much more realistic than Sanders. Sanders likely won't get any of the things he is promising done.

Also, Hillary is a little younger, and that makes a full 8 years more likely and I admire that she had a solid stance on healthcare as far back as the 90's.

But, if we look at someone's past. Sanders was a civil rights protester and Clinton was a Goldwater girl in her teens.

This is the first time I have ever been in the so-called "undecided" category. Even in a primary, I've always known who I wanted. I voted for Clinton last time in the primaries after attending stump speeches from both. But now, I don't know.

Hmm... this was a long and pointless stream of consciousness rant. Sorry about that!

It is important that you vote, whoever it is. I believe it when Sanders says if you ask for a loaf of bread, at the worst you'll get half, if you start asking for half, you'll get crumbs or nothing!

With Hillary I'm not sure if I can trust her & that was a deal breaker for me. College Plan is IMO one of the most achievable plans - Would likely generate 300M against the 70-75M target as per some agencies - What I am not sure is achievable is Single Payer - That would require a complete overhall, I'm not sure if it is possible.

With regards to Sanders' answers - He clearly said he decided on it as he thought the progressive issues would not get a center stage without running as a DEM but he called Nader a coward when he split votes so he probably would never have run as an Independent. He is where the Dem party should be, in the mold of FDR not the neo-liberal which it has become.

I don't want to see a monster named Trump as POTUS & IMO with Hillary's limited appeal among GOP & Independents, Sanders is the best choice. It is important that you vote - whoever it is.

[Lyin' Steve]

Please don't spam up this thread by posting (or responding to) Bernie Sanders copy+paste spam.

In other news, how are the lines looking out there?  Are there any black people?  Did anyone interview a line of college students and find out that everyone's voting for Sanders?

[ag]

Voting for Sanders will elect Trump. Do your duty.