2016 Congressional Primaries

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WA-9 first slot to Smith!
WA-10 slots to Heck and Postma!

Interesting note - Heck (D) is only up 47-37 on Postma (R). The other candidates are third party/independent. Maybe worth keeping an eye on this seat if a Trumpslide develops.

The district is only D+4. This, and maybe WA-01 can flip with the right conditions, but unlikely. Still surprised to see Denny Heck that low. I wonder how the treasurer race will turn out.

Uh, turns out politico was being a joke. The supposed third partier that got 12% - per SOS, she's actually a Democrat. 59% cumulative D vote = Safe D district.

[Heisenberg]

WA-9 first slot to Smith!
WA-10 slots to Heck and Postma!

Interesting note - Heck (D) is only up 47-37 on Postma (R). The other candidates are third party/independent. Maybe worth keeping an eye on this seat if a Trumpslide develops.

The district is only D+4. This, and maybe WA-01 can flip with the right conditions, but unlikely. Still surprised to see Denny Heck that low. I wonder how the treasurer race will turn out.

Uh, turns out politico was being a joke. The supposed third partier that got 12% - per SOS, she's actually a Democrat. 59% cumulative D vote = Safe D district.

Yeah, I noticed that too soon after replying. Since 2016 is not looking like it will be a good year for Republicans, Safe D for sure. Also, I endorse whichever Democrat wins the 2nd spot against Jayapal (the socialist) in WA-07. The last thing Washington (both the state and the capital) needs is more socialists.

[Ebsy]

Very weak performance across the board for the GOP in Washington.

[Xing]

Proud of my state, and happy to see FF Jayapal triggering people who assume she's a socialist because Bernie endorsed her. Yeah, Murray and Inslee are safe, and so is Heck.

[IceSpear]

Proud of my state, and happy to see FF Jayapal triggering people who assume she's a socialist because Bernie endorsed her. Yeah, Murray and Inslee are safe, and so is Heck.

Apparently Wulfric thinks Bernie is such a socialist that anyone he endorses is automatically a socialist by association. Which means Wulfric is supporting a socialist for president.

Mind blown.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Bergman wins MI-1 R. Blackwell wins MO-6 D.

Excellent!  Bergman is a far weaker candidate than Tom Casperton

[windjammer]

While the House Freedom Caucus lost the battle in Kansas, they did win the nomination for the 2 open seats in Michigan.
So I wouldn't say it's a horrendous year for them.

[Heisenberg]

While the House Freedom Caucus lost the battle in Kansas, they did win the nomination for the 2 open seats in Michigan.
So I wouldn't say it's a horrendous year for them.

Disappointed to see Mitchell win. He's also a carpetbagger (sort of) having previously ran for Dave Camp's seat last cycle (MI-04). At least it's the same state, unlike Hillary or Alex Mooney. Are MI-01 and MI-10 competitive? I hear at least one will be in play.

[windjammer]

While the House Freedom Caucus lost the battle in Kansas, they did win the nomination for the 2 open seats in Michigan.
So I wouldn't say it's a horrendous year for them.

Disappointed to see Mitchell win. He's also a carpetbagger (sort of) having previously ran for Dave Camp's seat last cycle (MI-04). At least it's the same state, unlike Hillary or Alex Mooney. Are MI-01 and MI-10 competitive? I hear at least one will be in play.

Democrats aren't planning to compete in M1-04 at all.

However, they are clearly competing in M1-01, it's a basically a blue dog district. Romney carried it by  points in 2012, and the republican incumbent only won by 2-3 points. Democrats overperform downballot. Bart Stupak, who held this district until 2010 (he retired), was pro life for example. They seem to have a solid recruit for this district who is able to raise money.
And as X pointed out, republicans chose the worst candidate.

[Miles]

^ Gary Peters narrowly lost both.

[136or142]

Something interesting/unfortunate for WA Dems:

WA Treasurer Primary: 54% in

Davidson (R) 25%
Waite (R) 23%
Liias (D) 19%
Comerford (D) 19%
Fisken (D) 14%

If this result holds, you'll have two Republicans in deep blue Washington on the ballot.

This would seem to be a case of what I said was wrong with the Jungle Primary, the Democrats combined her for 52% of the vote (it declined to 51% with all the votes counted so far) yet it's the two Republicans who made the runoff.

However, in this case the Republican Davidson likely has a fair amount of support from Democrats. Davidson is a county treasurer and he was endorsed by many of his fellow Washington State county treasurers, both Democratic and Republican.

[136or142]

WA-9 first slot to Smith!
WA-10 slots to Heck and Postma!

Interesting note - Heck (D) is only up 47-37 on Postma (R). The other candidates are third party/independent. Maybe worth keeping an eye on this seat if a Trumpslide develops.

Even a Jungle Primary result is not necessarily all that meaningful.  According to the Secretary of State website, maybe 1 million votes will have been cast in the primary.

There will probably be more than 3 million votes cast in the general election in Washington State.

[136or142]

Proud of my state, and happy to see FF Jayapal triggering people who assume she's a socialist because Bernie endorsed her. Yeah, Murray and Inslee are safe, and so is Heck.

There was a socialist elected to the Seattle City Council, my guess is that the people here believe Jayapal is that person.  Jayapal is a Democratic State Senator, not a Seattle City Councilor.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Proud of my state, and happy to see FF Jayapal triggering people who assume she's a socialist because Bernie endorsed her. Yeah, Murray and Inslee are safe, and so is Heck.

There was a socialist elected to the Seattle City Council, my guess is that the people here believe Jayapal is that person.  Jayapal is a Democratic State Senator, not a Seattle City Councilor.

Jayapal is a socialist too.

[JerryArkansas]

Proud of my state, and happy to see FF Jayapal triggering people who assume she's a socialist because Bernie endorsed her. Yeah, Murray and Inslee are safe, and so is Heck.

There was a socialist elected to the Seattle City Council, my guess is that the people here believe Jayapal is that person.  Jayapal is a Democratic State Senator, not a Seattle City Councilor.

Jayapal is a socialist too.

Just because someone is really liberal and you don't like them doesn't make then a socialist. 

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Proud of my state, and happy to see FF Jayapal triggering people who assume she's a socialist because Bernie endorsed her. Yeah, Murray and Inslee are safe, and so is Heck.

There was a socialist elected to the Seattle City Council, my guess is that the people here believe Jayapal is that person.  Jayapal is a Democratic State Senator, not a Seattle City Councilor.

Jayapal is a socialist too.

Just because someone is really liberal and you don't like them doesn't make then a socialist. 

If Bernie, who is a socialist, endorsed them during the primaries, they are a socialist. During primaries, there is no reason why a socialist would endorse a non-socialist as it would be against their interests.

[muon2]

I spent last Friday and Saturday driving west to east across KS with an overnight say in Great Bend. I wasn't on the interstate, so there were lots of small towns with political signs to see. Though signs don't vote, they give some sense of political organization. There were more than twice as many Dr. Roger Marshall signs as there were Tim Huelskamp signs. I'm not surprised at the primary result.

[The Other Castro]

Proud of my state, and happy to see FF Jayapal triggering people who assume she's a socialist because Bernie endorsed her. Yeah, Murray and Inslee are safe, and so is Heck.

There was a socialist elected to the Seattle City Council, my guess is that the people here believe Jayapal is that person.  Jayapal is a Democratic State Senator, not a Seattle City Councilor.

Jayapal is a socialist too.

Just because someone is really liberal and you don't like them doesn't make then a socialist. 

If Bernie, who is a socialist, endorsed them during the primaries, they are a socialist. During primaries, there is no reason why a socialist would endorse a non-socialist as it would be against their interests.

And this is why people don't take you seriously.

[JerryArkansas]

Proud of my state, and happy to see FF Jayapal triggering people who assume she's a socialist because Bernie endorsed her. Yeah, Murray and Inslee are safe, and so is Heck.

There was a socialist elected to the Seattle City Council, my guess is that the people here believe Jayapal is that person.  Jayapal is a Democratic State Senator, not a Seattle City Councilor.

Jayapal is a socialist too.

Just because someone is really liberal and you don't like them doesn't make then a socialist. 

If Bernie, who is a socialist, endorsed them during the primaries, they are a socialist. During primaries, there is no reason why a socialist would endorse a non-socialist as it would be against their interests.

And this is the reason that you sound really stupid when you type.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Proud of my state, and happy to see FF Jayapal triggering people who assume she's a socialist because Bernie endorsed her. Yeah, Murray and Inslee are safe, and so is Heck.

There was a socialist elected to the Seattle City Council, my guess is that the people here believe Jayapal is that person.  Jayapal is a Democratic State Senator, not a Seattle City Councilor.

Jayapal is a socialist too.

Just because someone is really liberal and you don't like them doesn't make then a socialist. 

If Bernie, who is a socialist, endorsed them during the primaries, they are a socialist. During primaries, there is no reason why a socialist would endorse a non-socialist as it would be against their interests.

And this is the reason that you sound really stupid when you type.

Right, because I tell the truth that everyone else is unable to realize.

[Xing]

Proud of my state, and happy to see FF Jayapal triggering people who assume she's a socialist because Bernie endorsed her. Yeah, Murray and Inslee are safe, and so is Heck.

There was a socialist elected to the Seattle City Council, my guess is that the people here believe Jayapal is that person.  Jayapal is a Democratic State Senator, not a Seattle City Councilor.

Jayapal is a socialist too.

Just because someone is really liberal and you don't like them doesn't make then a socialist. 

If Bernie, who is a socialist, endorsed them during the primaries, they are a socialist. During primaries, there is no reason why a socialist would endorse a non-socialist as it would be against their interests.

And this is the reason that you sound really stupid when you type.

Right, because I tell the truth that everyone else is unable to realize.

A Bernie endorsement = socialist? I guess Hillary's a socialist too, then!

[JerryArkansas]

Proud of my state, and happy to see FF Jayapal triggering people who assume she's a socialist because Bernie endorsed her. Yeah, Murray and Inslee are safe, and so is Heck.

There was a socialist elected to the Seattle City Council, my guess is that the people here believe Jayapal is that person.  Jayapal is a Democratic State Senator, not a Seattle City Councilor.

Jayapal is a socialist too.

Just because someone is really liberal and you don't like them doesn't make then a socialist. 

If Bernie, who is a socialist, endorsed them during the primaries, they are a socialist. During primaries, there is no reason why a socialist would endorse a non-socialist as it would be against their interests.

And this is the reason that you sound really stupid when you type.

Right, because I tell the truth that everyone else is unable to realize.

Just because you say something over and over again and believe in it really strongly doesn't make it the truth.  Sorry Boo Boo, but that is the way it works.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Proud of my state, and happy to see FF Jayapal triggering people who assume she's a socialist because Bernie endorsed her. Yeah, Murray and Inslee are safe, and so is Heck.

There was a socialist elected to the Seattle City Council, my guess is that the people here believe Jayapal is that person.  Jayapal is a Democratic State Senator, not a Seattle City Councilor.

Jayapal is a socialist too.

Just because someone is really liberal and you don't like them doesn't make then a socialist. 

If Bernie, who is a socialist, endorsed them during the primaries, they are a socialist. During primaries, there is no reason why a socialist would endorse a non-socialist as it would be against their interests.

And this is the reason that you sound really stupid when you type.

Right, because I tell the truth that everyone else is unable to realize.

A Bernie endorsement = socialist? I guess Hillary's a socialist too, then!

He endorsed Hillary in a general election. That's different.

[kcguy]

I spent last Friday and Saturday driving west to east across KS with an overnight say in Great Bend. I wasn't on the interstate, so there were lots of small towns with political signs to see. Though signs don't vote, they give some sense of political organization. There were more than twice as many Dr. Roger Marshall signs as there were Tim Huelskamp signs. I'm not surprised at the primary result.

The most notable instance of yard signs I ever remember was in 1998.  Republican Governor Bill Graves was running for reelection, as was Republican Congressman Vince Snowbarger.  It was not difficult that year to drive around and see Graves signs in the same yard as signs for Snowbarger's Democratic opponent.  In the end, at least 1/4 of the electorate must have split their votes that year, as Snowbarger lost while Graves carried every county in the state.

This year, I wonder how much Huelskamp was hurt by the periodic flare-up in Kansas Republican internecine warfare.  He wasn't the only one who lost, as six state senators were defeated last night by challengers running to their left.

[Xing]

Proud of my state, and happy to see FF Jayapal triggering people who assume she's a socialist because Bernie endorsed her. Yeah, Murray and Inslee are safe, and so is Heck.

There was a socialist elected to the Seattle City Council, my guess is that the people here believe Jayapal is that person.  Jayapal is a Democratic State Senator, not a Seattle City Councilor.

Jayapal is a socialist too.

Just because someone is really liberal and you don't like them doesn't make then a socialist. 

If Bernie, who is a socialist, endorsed them during the primaries, they are a socialist. During primaries, there is no reason why a socialist would endorse a non-socialist as it would be against their interests.

And this is the reason that you sound really stupid when you type.

Right, because I tell the truth that everyone else is unable to realize.

A Bernie endorsement = socialist? I guess Hillary's a socialist too, then!

He endorsed Hillary in a general election. That's different.

So he couldn't have just thought Jayapal was the best candidate? And we shouldn't judge her on her own merits, and not merely the fact that Sanders supported her?