2016 Congressional Primaries

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Mike Crane and Drew Ferguson will be advancing to a runoff for GA-3 R. GA-3 D goes to Angela Pendley.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

TX-15 R goes to Tim Westley. TX-18 R goes to Lori Bartley.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Jim Barksdale is the projected winner for GA-Sen D. That's it for tonight's races.

Next Primaries:

June 5: PR
June 7: CA, IA, MT, NC HoR, NJ, NM, SD + OH-08 Special Election (to replace John Boehner)

[bumpercrop]

Looks like Barksdale won thanks to his dominance in the Atlanta media market. He must not have advertised at all in the Chattanooga, Tallahassee, and Jacksonville markets.

This is the preliminary map of counties with 100% in (Barksdale-red, Copland-blue in 5% increments)...Barksdale leads in the three grey counties.



Map of media markets for comparison:

[IceSpear]

So-called frontrunner, St. Sen. Mike Crane, has fallen behind a some dude into fourth place in GA-3. Tiny-village mayor and wealthy dentist (future lionkiller?) Drew Ferguson and businessman Jim Pace seem very likely to go to a runoff (Ferguson leads Crane 35-22, with the unheralded Chip Flanagan at 15 and Crane at 14).

Republican incumbents facing primary challenges: Loudermilk at 61, Collins at 62, Graves at 77, Scott at 81, Allen at 82. There may be a solid floor of about 15%ish (a little more, perhaps) that will vote against the Republican incumbent in a primary, for any challenger, no matter what.

In Texas, Gonzalez leads Palacios 51-49 in district 15, with 0.7% in. With 2.5% in in district 19, Robertson leads Arrington 50-50, or by 10 votes (out of 1,134 counted so far).

Pretty much anyone anywhere can get 15% or so being the sole challenger to an incumbent. Some random teabagger got that against Bob Casey in 2012.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tomorrow is the downballot primaries in Puerto Rico (Governor, Congressional Delegate, probably some local stuff). Search around for results if you want to, but it's probably not worth caring about a non-state.

These are the contested races for June 7th, listed by poll closing time (ET):

7:30 PM: OH-08 Special Election, NC-02 D & R, NC-03 D & R, NC-04 R, NC-05 D & R, NC-06 R, NC-08 R, NC-09 R, NC-10 R, NC-11 D, NC-12 D & R, NC-13 D & R

8:00 PM: NJ-01 D, NJ-02 D, NJ-03 D, NJ-04 R, NJ-05 R, NJ-07 R, NJ-08 D, NJ-11 D & R, NJ-12 D

9:00 PM: NM-03 R (No contested congressional races for SD)

10:00 PM: IA-01 D, IA-03 D & R, IA-04 R, IA U.S. Senate D, MT Governor D & R

11:00 PM: CA-01, CA-02, CA-03, CA-04, CA-05, CA-06, CA-08, CA-09, CA-10, CA-12, CA-16, CA-17, CA-18, CA-20, CA-21, CA-22, CA-23, CA-24, CA-25, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-41, CA-42, CA-44, CA-45, CA-46, CA-47, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CA-51, CA-52, CA-53, CA U.S. Senate

All CA primaries are blanket/jungle style, with the top two finishers, regardless of party, advancing to the general. Even in cases where someone gets an absolute majority of votes in the primary, the second place finisher still gets another chance in November.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

All right. Welcome to the June 7th Primaries. Tonight, voters in Ohio's 8th congressional district choose a new congressman. At least one NC HoR incumbent will lose - possibly two in the same race! There are congressional races across New Jersey, New Mexico, Iowa, and California as well. In Montana, voters select their gubernatorial nominees. And in the CA senate primary, the future of the CA R party is truly on the line, as there is a real risk of the GE being between two democrats as a result of tonight's results. 

Results Links:

OH-8: 7:30 PM EST (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2016/by_state/OH_Page_0607.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

NC closes at 7:30, NJ at 8, NM at 9, IA/MT at 10, and CA at 11. For those states, go to http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results, click on the state you want (scroll down to the bottom of the page for the full state list if you want NC/IA), and then scroll down past the presidential contest stuff.

[Vosem]

Very early results from North Carolina (first few precincts reporting): Holding 51, Brannon 24, Ellmers 24 in NC-2; Jones 64, Law 20, Griffin 16 in NC-3; Johnson 39, Harris 33, Pittenger 28 in NC-9. No results yet from NC-12 or 13. Foxx, Meadows, Walker all over 70.

EDIT: With 0 precincts reporting, former Libertarian Party activist Tim D'Annunzio is leading Richard Hudson in NC-8, 55-45. What is this?

[Maxwell]

I like the early Jones SMASHING Griffin results. Hope it stays like that.

[Vosem]

I like the early Jones SMASHING Griffin results. Hope it stays like that.

Can't say I agree with that, but Jones is far from the worst guy in the House.

Also, Pittenger is up to a 42-Harris 30-Johnson 27 lead; this is entirely on the strength of Pittenger being over 50 in Mecklenburg County and Johnson in third there, since Johnson leads everywhere else.

Ellmers has nudged ahead of Brannon, but Holding is still at 51 while his opponents are mired in the 20s.

[Vosem]

First results in from NC-12 and NC-13: Alma Adams leads Malcolm Graham in NC-12, 44-31, with everyone else irrelevant. In NC-13, Hank Henning is at 29, John Blust is at 24, my boy Ted Budd is at 16, and everyone else is under 10. Will be happy with anyone but Kay Daly (currently at...2%!), who tried to run a campaign explicitly tying herself to the Orange Menace.

EDIT: Holding up to 54 in NC-2; Brannon again beating Ellmers. D'Annunzio is up 54-46 over Hudson. Pittenger up 41-31 over Harris. Budd has moved into a lead in NC-13 with 20% (!) of the vote; Henning is at 18%; Howard and Blust at 14%; Barrett at 10%. This race will be a nightmare to keep track of.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

First precinct in from OH-8, Warren(R) leading Foister(D) 65-32.

[Maxwell]

Ellmers is fighting for distant distant second with Greg "lol" Brannon... she was Trump's first congressional endorsement. Talk about a PR disaster for the Republican nominee.

[Ebsy]

RIP Rene Ellmers HP.

[Pandaguineapig]

Ellmers is fighting for distant distant second with Greg "lol" Brannon... she was Trump's first congressional endorsement. Talk about a PR disaster for the Republican nominee.

Not good for him, but ellmers was never going to win this primary

[JerryArkansas]

It will be really funny if Pittenger loses this.  Only at 38.8 percent against not so great challengers.

[Vosem]

Budd still leads, but he's down to 15% (!!). 4 different candidates are within 5 percentage points of him. The odious Daly is still at 2% where she belongs. Hudson leading D'Annunzio 52-48. Pittenger leading Johnson and Harris 38-32-30, in that order.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Holding still way out ahead with almost half of the vote in.

[Vosem]

Budd at 18% with a 3-way pile-up behind him at 10%. No movement in any other race.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Full 1% of the vote in for OH-8, Davidson leading Foister 66-31.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2% in for OH-8, Davidson leading Foister 67-30.

Adams lead narrows slightly in NC-12.

[Vosem]

First results in from New Jersey: with less than 150 votes in, Leonard Lance is beating David Larsen 70-28 -- Larsen came within 54-46 of beating Lance in 2016, but was taken more seriously this time around. Scott Garrett is comfortably over 80 in his primary.

Back in NC, Ellmers is back out ahead of Brannon (of course Holding is way ahead of both, 52-24-24). Really hope Brannon pulls it out for the sheer delight of Ellmers coming in third. Jones at 67 with 17% in; like Lance, he barely won in 2014. Alma Adams, the D incumbent whose district was redrawn to leave her hundreds of miles outside of it, is nevertheless up to 43-30 over local Malcolm Graham in NC-12. No movement elsewhere (so Hudson is still up 4 points over D'Annunzio, Pittenger 6 points over Johnson, and Budd is leading by 8 points even though he is at only 18%).

[Heisenberg]

NYT just called NC-02 for Holding.

[Vosem]

In NC-8, Hudson is up 56-44 over D'Annunzio, and he's at 78 in the only county which has actual precincts, and not just early vote, reporting. Thinking this was an overblown fluke -- either a computer error or just very unrepresentative votes counted first. In NC-9, where Pittenger is in actual danger, his challenger Johnson is edging closer, and Pittenger leads 37-32.

AP has given Holding the checkmark.  off and don't come back, Renee Ellmers

EDIT: And as soon as I said that, 14 precincts in Cumberland County (NC-8) report; D'Annunzio leads 52-48 in the county and Hudson is leading him just 53-47 overall. Still some very unusual geographic polarization in the county results

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hudson out to a 7 point lead now. Adams leads by 12.