2016 Congressional Primaries

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hudson now jumps to a 64-36 lead.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

15% in for OH-8, Davidson leading Foister 73-24 but still no call.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

John McNeil wins NC-2 D. Walter Jones wins NC-3 R.

[Vosem]

More coming in from New Jersey: D incumbent David Norcross in NJ-1, who felt the need to air attack ads against some dude opponent Alex Law, is beating him 79-21. You can't be too careful, but this was a pointless waste of money. With more votes in (but still no precincts) in NJ-7, establishmenty incumbent Lance is leading tea-party-ish challenger Larsen 56-41. This was a single-digit race between them in 2014.

In North Carolina, Jones is ticking up to 68%. Should be getting the checkmark any second. Hudson up 63-37 over D'Annunzio now; D'Annunzio's >80% in Stanly County magically changed to a >80% lead for Hudson. D'Annunzio is still winning two counties (though neither by freakish margins) and this is a big underperformance for Hudson, but it's not quite as eye-popping as it was earlier, and Hudson should be fine for 2016 (but could be a possible primary target in future cycles, perhaps).

Pittenger leads Johnson 35-33, with Harris at 32. That'll go down the wire. Adams is leading Graham 42-30, though just 5% is reporting here. In NC-13, Matt McCall has been boosted by a dump from Iredell County, where he is county registrar; Budd leads McCall 18-14. Jason Walser is at 10 and everyone else is in single digits.

EDIT: Johnson LEADS Pittenger, 34-33, with Harris less than 100 votes behind at 33. Jones has the checkmark. Hudson up to 66.

[Pandaguineapig]

Johnson has taken the lead in nc-9

[windjammer]

Johnson has taken the lead in nc-9

Who is he? Freedom caucus ?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In OH-8, Davidson is the projected winner. He's leading Foister 76-22 with 30% in. Boehner succeeded by a club for growth guy.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Sue Googe wins NC-4 R.

[Vosem]

Johnson has taken the lead in nc-9

Who is he? Freedom caucus ?

Self-described as an "antiestablishment conservative", though he's a county commissioner so he prolly has some ties to some local big-shots.

Apparently, what's out is favorable to Pittenger; Mecklenburg County, the most populous and his home base, is only 14% in and Pittenger>50% there. He's in third place everywhere else, amusingly (in Bladen County, which is finished counting, he's at 7%. Lol.)

EDIT: At this moment, Mecklenburg is still only 16% in, and Pittenger has every chance at coming back and winning, but at this moment he is in third place behind Johnson and Harris, 34-33-33.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Patrick McHenry wins NC-10 R.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Lance is up 57-33 with 7% in.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Mark Walker wins NC-6 R.

[Vosem]

Hudson is back down to leading D'Annunzio 58-42. With 95% reporting in Cumberland County, D'Annunzio leads there 54-42; this is the main base of his support.

Mark Harris, a hardcore SoCon, is leading in NC-9, 34-33-33, leading establishment-flavored incumbent Pittenger and vaguely antiestablishmentarian Johnson by less than a percentage point each.

In NC-13, Ted Budd leads Julia Howard 19-12. Jason Walser is at 10, with all other candidates in single-digits. Have we ever had a primary where the winner got less than 20% of the vote? I can recall lots of crowded ones with winners in the 20s, but this seems like a new record.

[Heisenberg]

Are any of the new NC districts (other than the Dem-held 1st, 4th, and 12th) competitive? Has Cook released new PVI's for them?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Donald Norcross wins NJ-1 D. Chris Smith wins NJ-4 R.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ernest Reeves wins NC-3 D.

[Vosem]

Are any of the new NC districts (other than the Dem-held 1st, 4th, and 12th) competitive? Has Cook released new PVI's for them?

No. The districts are all safe as the previous ones; the judge's problem with the old map was specific to certain sections which were declared racially motivated, and it was possible to draw just as effective Democratic vote sinks while adhering to the judge's demands. The net effect here is simply swapping out Trump-endorsed Ellmers for whoever wins the NC-13 primary (currently CfG-endorsed Budd).

EDIT: Hudson leads D'Annunzio 63-37; Cumberland County, where D'Annunzio was strongest (and in fact won outright, 54-46) is now all in, so Hudson is likely to improve from here on out. Harris is beating Pittenger and Johnson 35-33-32 in NC-9, but this is also mostly Cumberland County fueled; Harris is over 50 there while leading nowhere else. (What is up with that county, by the way?). Still 42% of Mecklenburg left, but later Mecklenburg returns haven't been as favorable to Pittenger as earlier ones. He should still pull this out, but he'll be below 40.

Budd is up to 21; his nearest opponent, McCall, is at 12.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

David Cole wins NJ-2 D.

[publicunofficial]

Are any of the new NC districts (other than the Dem-held 1st, 4th, and 12th) competitive? Has Cook released new PVI's for them?

The most competitive one is NC-13 at only 55% Romney, but even that's Safe R most years.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Josh Brannon wins NC-5 D.

[Vosem]

With 78% in from Mecklenburg County and only 22% left to go, Harris still leads Pittenger 35-34. 11 precincts out. 3 precincts are also out in Robeson County (where Harris is destroying Johnson and Pittenger is a non-factor) and 5 in Scotland County (where Johnson has a lead on Harris who has a lead on Pittenger). Pittenger is still favored here but a possible Harris victory is starting to come into focus.

EDIT: Hudson gets the checkmark over D'Annunzio; he currently leads 64-36. Not as bad as it looked in the beginning, but there is still some geographic polarization in the results; there are counties where D'Annunzio is >50, and counties where Hudson is >80. A stronger candidate than D'Annunzio may be able to put up a real challenge here.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Alma Adams wins NC-12 D. Big victory for incumbents.

[Maxwell]

So are the rules the same for House primaries where the person has to get above 40% in order to avoid a primary?

[Vosem]

Alma Adams wins NC-12 D. Big victory for incumbents.

Not for every incumbent.

Also, with 84% reporting in Mecklenburg, Harris is still leading Pittenger 35-34. There are also still 3 precincts in Robeson County and 5 in Scotland County still out, which should all be unfavorable to Pittenger, while 7 are left in Mecklenburg. This'll go down the wire, and Ellmers could well have a buddy by the end of the night.

Ted Budd leads his closest opponent, Julia Howard, 21-11 with 78% reporting. Unless that 22% is concentrated in someone's geographic base, Budd should be getting the checkmark soon.

[Vosem]

So are the rules the same for House primaries where the person has to get above 40% in order to avoid a primary?

Normally yes, but for this cycle only the legislature has waived the requirement (the House primaries were delayed by redistricting to the normal runoff date, today, and they decided not to pay for later elections). 21% will be an outright victory for Budd if that's all first place takes.

Pittenger up 35-34 over Harris. 3 Mecklenburg precincts (strong Pittenger, Harris in second), 3 Robeson precincts (strong Harris, Johnson in second, Pittenger way back), and 5 Scotland precincts (narrow Johnson lead over Harris, Pittenger way back) still out. Coming down the wire. Pittenger's lead in actual votes is 148 of them.

EDIT: Just as I say that, 2 Mecklenburg precincts report. Pittenger is now up 162 votes. 1 favorable Mecklenburg precinct left, and 8 unfavorable ones. Precincts seem to be rather small in NC though; expect it to tighten, but this may be a strong enough lead to hold.