MO: RABA Research: Clinton +4

[RI]

March 8-10, 670 LVs

Clinton 44
Sanders 40

[RJEvans]

Looks on the mark to me. I expect a Sanders win here. Look at AR. He did much better in the northern part of the state than Obama and Obama won MO by 2. Should be the best state of the night for Sanders.

[RI]

Looks on the mark to me. I expect a Sanders win here. Look at AR. He did much better in the northern part of the state than Obama and Obama won MO by 2. Should be the best state of the night for Sanders.

Obama had the black vote, though.

[Lief 🗽]

Looks on the mark to me. I expect a Sanders win here. Look at AR. He did much better in the northern part of the state than Obama and Obama won MO by 2. Should be the best state of the night for Sanders.

Obama had the black vote, though.

Yeah Clinton will have the black vote this time and presumably will do significantly better than Obama did in rural Missouri (plus fewer votes will be coming from rural Missouri overall this year than in 2008).

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Has this pollster ever released a poll before?

[Gass3268]

Looks on the mark to me. I expect a Sanders win here. Look at AR. He did much better in the northern part of the state than Obama and Obama won MO by 2. Should be the best state of the night for Sanders.

Obama had the black vote, though.

Yeah Clinton will have the black vote this time and presumably will do significantly better than Obama did in rural Missouri (plus fewer votes will be coming from rural Missouri overall this year than in 2008).

If trends continue from other states, there with be fewer black votes as well.

[Ebsy]

Has this pollster ever released a poll before?

I've never heard of them.

[Xing]

I wouldn't be surprised if the map looks exactly the opposite of how it looked in 2008: Sanders will win the vast majority of the rural counties, while Clinton wins Kansas City and St. Louis by huge margins.

[RFayette]

I wouldn't be surprised if the map looks exactly the opposite of how it looked in 2008: Sanders will win the vast majority of the rural counties, while Clinton wins Kansas City and St. Louis by huge margins.

It's funny - outside of college towns and high-Hispanic areas, Sanders's county maps look remarkably like a Republican's in a general election.

[Boston Bread]

It's funny - outside of college towns and high-Hispanic areas, Sanders's county maps look remarkably like a Republican's in a general election.

I think you'd see an even closer resemblance to general election maps before the south turned Republican. Sander's best states are those that were Republican strongholds mid-century, like Vermont, Maine, Kansas.

[Seriously?]

Has this pollster ever released a poll before?

I've never heard of them.

What the heck is a RABA and will they be polling the Republican side of this?

[/]

It's funny - outside of college towns and high-Hispanic areas, Sanders's county maps look remarkably like a Republican's in a general election.

I think you'd see an even closer resemblance to general election maps before the south turned Republican. Sander's best states are those that were Republican strongholds mid-century, like Vermont, Maine, Kansas.

It could actually end up looking something a lot like 1988 in the Northeast if Sanders does well.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Looks on the mark to me. I expect a Sanders win here. Look at AR. He did much better in the northern part of the state than Obama and Obama won MO by 2. Should be the best state of the night for Sanders.

Obama had the black vote, though.

Yeah Clinton will have the black vote this time and presumably will do significantly better than Obama did in rural Missouri (plus fewer votes will be coming from rural Missouri overall this year than in 2008).

If trends continue from other states, there with be fewer black votes as well.

What? The non-white vote has increased as a percentage of the Democratic primary electorate in every state except (strangely) Virginia.

[Gass3268]

Looks on the mark to me. I expect a Sanders win here. Look at AR. He did much better in the northern part of the state than Obama and Obama won MO by 2. Should be the best state of the night for Sanders.

Obama had the black vote, though.

Yeah Clinton will have the black vote this time and presumably will do significantly better than Obama did in rural Missouri (plus fewer votes will be coming from rural Missouri overall this year than in 2008).

If trends continue from other states, there with be fewer black votes as well.

What? The non-white vote has increased as a percentage of the Democratic primary electorate in every state except (strangely) Virginia.

Their percentages are up, but the pure vote totals are down.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Looks on the mark to me. I expect a Sanders win here. Look at AR. He did much better in the northern part of the state than Obama and Obama won MO by 2. Should be the best state of the night for Sanders.

Obama had the black vote, though.

Yeah Clinton will have the black vote this time and presumably will do significantly better than Obama did in rural Missouri (plus fewer votes will be coming from rural Missouri overall this year than in 2008).

If trends continue from other states, there with be fewer black votes as well.

What? The non-white vote has increased as a percentage of the Democratic primary electorate in every state except (strangely) Virginia.

Their percentages are up, but the pure vote totals are down.

The total Dem turnout in general is down but I don't see how this affects the results.

[standwrand]

so a Sanders win +4

[Virginiá]

What? The non-white vote has increased as a percentage of the Democratic primary electorate in every state except (strangely) Virginia.

I think that probably has something to do with a combination of two factors:

1. non-white voter growth in Virginia has been somewhat slower than a host of other states - African American growth is relatively static and Hispanic/Asian growth is decently fast, but they have far lower turnout rates so it takes longer for their actual voter numbers to catch up

2. Virginia has had a lot of migration from other liberal states which was important in its change from reliably red to reliably blue. A lot of these people aren't necessarily minorities so their increasing numbers has sort of offset the gains in non-white primary voters. Other states with increasing non-white primary voters don't usually have this mitigating factor.

And in regards to other states with increasing non-white primary voters - If you mean places like minority-rich Southern states, then you have to consider that after Obama, white voter support for Democrats collapsed in parts of the South, which would lead to an increase in the number of non-white primary voters relative to the entire primary electorate. Not necessarily because their numbers increased, but rather that white democrat numbers decreased.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The non-white vote increased even in states like Iowa, New Hampshire and Massachusetts.

[Virginiá]

2. Virginia has had a lot of migration from other liberal states which was important in its change from reliably red to reliably blue.

Reliably blue? lol

The direction the national Republican party is going and the large electorate changes going on in Virginia are pushing it fast into a non-contestable category. If the GOP ran Kasich this year, it would be open but running people like Trump or Cruz takes it off the map. Every 4 years VA is going to drift further and further from the GOP and with the direction of the party, I don't see how they win it.

I probably should have said Likely Dem rather than imply Solid, but I stand by my position that by the time the GOP gets itself together, however many years that takes, it won't be viable anymore.