IL-WeAskAmerica: Clinton+37, Trump+13

[izixs]

I think the most telling thing about the dem side on this is the cross tabs. As Illinois is more diverse than Michigan, can't quite take the gender break down as the full story. The racial breakdown is a bit more interesting. They have Clinton at 50-35 for hispanics, but 58-30 for whites. As everyone around here has been shouting since Nevada, Clinton did well with them there, so why would Clinton be doing worse with hispanics in Illinois than with white people? Perhaps its small number margin of error stuff of course, but it does kind of raise one red flag. Second, is that Clinton is shown as being up with whites so solidly. If Illinois' white population is closer to Iowa's on the average, you'd expect closer to even instead of a 28 point spread. If instead Illinois' white population is closer to Michigan, that number would be even worse. So, second red flag. Both these again might just be due to small number statistics, as will the third flag: geographical break down. Sanders has been doing very well in ruralish areas outside the south so far. It makes no sense he'd be losing down state Illinois, which is much more rural than Cook count or the collar areas by far, by thirty points. If this is true, you'd expect a similar blow out in Missouri, which love it or hate it, a couple recent polls are suggesting isn't going to be the case.

So yes, this poll doesn't make much sense unless three different sub groups (hispanics, whites, down state) are all wildly off at the same time given other data and past results.