NC-Civitas Institute Trump +6

[mds32]

North Carolina
GOP Primary
Trump 32%
Cruz 26%
Rubio 11%
Kasich 11%


***** (this is of 8% who chose a different candidate)
As you may know, [candidate named above] has dropped out of the presidential race.  Out of the following candidates who are still running in the Republican Primary for President, for whom would you vote between: (RANDOMIZE)

19%     John Kasich
12%     Marco Rubio
14%     Donald Trump
28%     Ted Cruz
24%     Don’t Know/ Unsure
2%       Refused

https://www.nccivitas.org/2016/17366/

[Ronnie]

Yeah, I expect this one to be really close, especially if Rubio drops out before the 15th.

[Mehmentum]

Clinton: 57% (+29)
Sanders: 28%

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I can see this was pre-Miracle In Michgan and pre-Massacre in Miami. 

GREAT NEWS!

[Landslide Lyndon]

Clinton's "worst" performance in the South has been 64% in Virginia. I wouldn't be surprised for her to be near that.

[Seriously?]

Yeah, I expect this one to be really close, especially if Rubio drops out before the 15th.

Just curious, why do you expect it to be close?

I would think the state would be more South Carolina/Georgia than Virginia as far as margin goes.

[Mehmentum]

Yeah, I expect this one to be really close, especially if Rubio drops out before the 15th.

Just curious, why do you expect it to be close?

I would think the state would be more South Carolina/Georgia than Virginia as far as margin goes.

I would expect Trump's percent of the vote to be very close to his performances in South Carolina (33%), Virginia (35%) and Georgia (39%).

But Cruz will likely perform much better in North Carolina than he did in any of those states.  If Cruz has consolidated the not-Trump vote in North Carolina like he did in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Kentucky, then I have no doubt that it will be close.

[Sorenroy]

Yeah, I expect this one to be really close, especially if Rubio drops out before the 15th.

Just curious, why do you expect it to be close?

I would think the state would be more South Carolina/Georgia than Virginia as far as margin goes.

I would expect Trump's percent of the vote to be very close to his performances in South Carolina (33%), Virginia (35%) and Georgia (39%).

But Cruz will likely perform much better in North Carolina than he did in any of those states.  If Cruz has consolidated the not-Trump vote in North Carolina like he did in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Kentucky, then I have no doubt that it will be close.

I agree that Cruz will rally, but NC is an open primary and has had outsized Blue Dog Dem influence into Obama's presidency.  There's also the issue of whether considerably more secular suburban Wake and Mecklenburg R's are as ready to hold their noses for Cruz as suburban Baton Rouge, Little Rock and Tulsa voters were.   

In the primary Registered Democrats and Republicans (and Libertarians [I think]) can only vote in their own party primary, but unaffiliated may choose which side to vote on.



Also note that early voting has been going on for seven days and North Carolina does a lot to accommodate older or disabled voters who cannot vote on election day, so even if Rubio dropped, some of the votes would already be locked in.