Democratic MI/MS election results thread (first results @8pm ET)

[Mehmentum]

If 6 in 10 did, in fact, say that is the most important quality like ABC claimed then this might be quite closer than we think.  

6 in 10 said either 'Honest and Trustworthy' or 'Cares About People Like Me' were their most important quality.

[Eraserhead]

I think we're probably looking at a 56-43 kind of result.

Even Robby Mook said it's going to be tighter

He might just be spinning (by lowering expectations for his candidate).

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I think we're probably looking at a 56-43 kind of result.

Even Robby Mook said it's going to be tighter

SEXY NEWS!  Ya know ya can always trust the Mookster!

[IceSpear]

I think we're probably looking at a 56-43 kind of result.

Even Robby Mook said it's going to be tighter

It's the expectations game. They also said they just wanted to win by more than 22 points (Bernie's NH margin) in SC.

That said, I expect a high single digit win for Hillary.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

If 6 in 10 did, in fact, say that is the most important quality like ABC claimed then this might be quite closer than we think.  

6 in 10 said either 'Honest and Trustworthy' or 'Cares About People Like Me' were their most important quality.

Tomato, Potato.  LAVENOUS!

[Adam Griffin]

The prior Michigan polling might end up being right, but it'll be a coincidence I imagine more than anything: those of us who have been around for awhile know that Michigan polling in general is garbage, regardless of the source.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The prior Michigan polling might end up being right, but it'll be a coincidence I imagine more than anything: those of us who have been around for awhile know that Michigan polling in general is garbage, regardless of the source.

That is the truth. Depending on voters etc etc we could reasonably see Clinton win by 3 or 23 ... Plus early exits aren't the best guide.

[Likely Voter]

OK I did a quick check and Clinton tends to get a few more points than the 'continue' number...

State / Continue Obama / Clinton %
VA   60   64
NV   50   53
MA   45   50
OK   38   42

Nice work. So a 55%-44% Clinton win, perhaps.

Does that account for more liberal less liberal? I'm just wondering if the more liberal folks tend to be the same ratio over less liberal, or if that varies. I would think less liberal leans Clinton, and more liberal leans Sanders.

I just looked at those two numbers and grabbed four close states. you can find all the data at nbc

[Ebsy]

The prior Michigan polling might end up being right, but it'll be a coincidence I imagine more than anything: those of us who have been around for awhile know that Michigan polling in general is garbage, regardless of the source.

That is the truth. Depending on voters etc etc we could reasonably see Clinton win by 3 or 23 ... Plus early exits aren't the best guide.

If we remember last week on Super Tuesday, the early exits showed a much better night for Sanders than he ended up having, showing a huge lead in Massachusetts and a close race in Tennessee with much smaller leads for Clinton in Virginia and Georgia.

[IceSpear]

FTR, Bernie won the honest and trustworthy question 91-9 in MA.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Looks like Mississippi Democrats are being fooled for suckers.  Yawn whats new.

[Boston Bread]

OK I did a quick check and Clinton tends to get a few more points than the 'continue' number...

State / Continue Obama / Clinton %
VA   60   64
NV   50   53
MA   45   50
OK   38   42

Nice work. So a 55%-44% Clinton win, perhaps.

Does that account for more liberal less liberal? I'm just wondering if the more liberal folks tend to be the same ratio over less liberal, or if that varies. I would think less liberal leans Clinton, and more liberal leans Sanders.

Based on those exit polls, less liberal leans Sanders.

[IceSpear]

Looks like Mississippi Democrats are being fooled for suckers.  Yawn whats new.

Nobody's getting fooled. Many (actually, most!) people just prefer Hillary Clinton. Is that so hard to understand?

[Eraserhead]

The prior Michigan polling might end up being right, but it'll be a coincidence I imagine more than anything: those of us who have been around for awhile know that Michigan polling in general is garbage, regardless of the source.

That is the truth. Depending on voters etc etc we could reasonably see Clinton win by 3 or 23 ... Plus early exits aren't the best guide.

If we remember last week on Super Tuesday, the early exits showed a much better night for Sanders than he ended up having, showing a huge lead in Massachusetts and a close race in Tennessee with much smaller leads for Clinton in Virginia and Georgia.

Oklahoma actually ended up being a much bigger Sanders win than the early exits showed though. Too bad we didn't get entrance polls for Minnesota and Colorado.

[Wiz in Wis]

OK I did a quick check and Clinton tends to get a few more points than the 'continue' number...

State / Continue Obama / Clinton %
VA   60   64
NV   50   53
MA   45   50
OK   38   42

Nice work. So a 55%-44% Clinton win, perhaps.

Does that account for more liberal less liberal? I'm just wondering if the more liberal folks tend to be the same ratio over less liberal, or if that varies. I would think less liberal leans Clinton, and more liberal leans Sanders.

Based on those exit polls, less liberal leans Sanders.

Interestingly, in TX, Continue Obama's policies was only 48%. Clinton still won 66%

[Gass3268]

Looks like Mississippi Democrats are being fooled for suckers.  Yawn whats new.

You aren't helping.

[ElectionsGuy]

What areas in MI will Sanders do well? The only obvious pop-out to me is Washtenaw (Ann Arbor). Muskegon?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Looks like Mississippi Democrats are being fooled for suckers.  Yawn whats new.

Nobody's getting fooled. Many (actually, most!) people just prefer Hillary Clinton. Is that so hard to understand?

No... this is a fairly clueless country.  Don't rip on the Canadian for his lack of understanding when he does not live here.  That's mean.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

OK I did a quick check and Clinton tends to get a few more points than the 'continue' number...

State / Continue Obama / Clinton %
VA   60   64
NV   50   53
MA   45   50
OK   38   42

Nice work. So a 55%-44% Clinton win, perhaps.

Does that account for more liberal less liberal? I'm just wondering if the more liberal folks tend to be the same ratio over less liberal, or if that varies. I would think less liberal leans Clinton, and more liberal leans Sanders.

Based on those exit polls, less liberal leans Sanders.

Interestingly, in TX, Continue Obama's policies was only 48%. Clinton still won 66%

At the moment, less liberal is twice that of MS. Makes me wonder if there's some kind of cross-party shenanigans going on?

[Gass3268]

What areas in MI will Sanders do well? The only obvious pop-out to me is Washtenaw (Ann Arbor). Muskegon?

I have to imagine Northern Michigan and the UP. Not that many people live up there, but just a guess.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Looks like Mississippi Democrats are being fooled for suckers.  Yawn whats new.

Nobody's getting fooled. Many (actually, most!) people just prefer Hillary Clinton. Is that so hard to understand?

They are basically voting against their own self interests. You think Clinton is going to do anything about mass incarceration of blacks and the terrible justice system? HAHAHAHA that's a good one. She will do what her donors tell her.

[Wiz in Wis]

OK I did a quick check and Clinton tends to get a few more points than the 'continue' number...

State / Continue Obama / Clinton %
VA   60   64
NV   50   53
MA   45   50
OK   38   42

Nice work. So a 55%-44% Clinton win, perhaps.

Does that account for more liberal less liberal? I'm just wondering if the more liberal folks tend to be the same ratio over less liberal, or if that varies. I would think less liberal leans Clinton, and more liberal leans Sanders.

Based on those exit polls, less liberal leans Sanders.

Interestingly, in TX, Continue Obama's policies was only 48%. Clinton still won 66%

TN - Continue Obama 58, Clinton Vote 66%. She's not doing worse so far as I can tell anywhere. Though in SC, Continue Obama was 72, as was her vote total.

[Yank2133]

Looks like Mississippi Democrats are being fooled for suckers.  Yawn whats new.

Nobody's getting fooled. Many (actually, most!) people just prefer Hillary Clinton. Is that so hard to understand?

They are basically voting against their own self interests. You think Clinton is going to do anything about mass incarceration of blacks and the terrible justice system? HAHAHAHA that's a good one. She will do what her donors tell her.

Yet Sanders who has no history of doing anything noteworthy for blacks while in congress will?

[Wiz in Wis]

OK I did a quick check and Clinton tends to get a few more points than the 'continue' number...

State / Continue Obama / Clinton %
VA   60   64
NV   50   53
MA   45   50
OK   38   42

Nice work. So a 55%-44% Clinton win, perhaps.

Does that account for more liberal less liberal? I'm just wondering if the more liberal folks tend to be the same ratio over less liberal, or if that varies. I would think less liberal leans Clinton, and more liberal leans Sanders.

Based on those exit polls, less liberal leans Sanders.

Interestingly, in TX, Continue Obama's policies was only 48%. Clinton still won 66%

At the moment, less liberal is twice that of MS. Makes me wonder if there's some kind of cross-party shenanigans going on?

Maybe... but also could just be that there is a more unanimous verdict in MS. less variation.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Looks like Mississippi Democrats are being fooled for suckers.  Yawn whats new.

Nobody's getting fooled. Many (actually, most!) people just prefer Hillary Clinton. Is that so hard to understand?

They are basically voting against their own self interests. You think Clinton is going to do anything about mass incarceration of blacks and the terrible justice system? HAHAHAHA that's a good one. She will do what her donors tell her.

I will not engage in this type of stuff.  Black voters have good reasons to vote for Clinton.  They also have good reasons to not vote for her, like the stuff you mention.  Most serious for me is her utter lack of integrity.  A political weathervane if I've ever seen one.  I blame party leadership and their loyalty to a family and not leftist/progressive principles.  It's why, for the time being, I've left the Democratic Party.  If it's not the party of FDR anymore but the party of the Clintons then I'm outies 5000.