Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,088
Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
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« on: March 19, 2016, 07:05:08 PM » |
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Low turnout helps Democrats in Appalachian Kentucky and West Virginia. I don't think it helps in many places throughout the South in general (maybe in states like Mississippi at the county level; see my sig), but there's a pretty strong correlation between higher turnout and it hurting the historically/ancestrally dominant party in a given area. Once that dynamic flips, it tends to no longer apply...but it hasn't completely flipped yet in places like KY & WV.
When you have low turnout, then that means it's mostly the oldest and most reliable voters who are voting, and in places like KY & WV, those people are the most adamantly Democratic ones remaining - just look at Conway's performance by age in Kentucky. There are obviously counter-currents to this as well, but the dynamic largely holds true. KY and WV both will become even more Republican as the 65+ group dies off.
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