KY House Special Elections End Up Not Resulting in GOP Majority
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  KY House Special Elections End Up Not Resulting in GOP Majority
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Author Topic: KY House Special Elections End Up Not Resulting in GOP Majority  (Read 6144 times)
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darthebearnc
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« on: March 07, 2016, 04:35:02 PM »
« edited: March 19, 2016, 09:02:45 PM by ͡◔ ᴥ ͡◔ »

http://www.tri-cityherald.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article64589037.html

On March 8, special elections will be held in four districts of the Kentucky House of Representatives. As the Democrats currently have a 50-46 majority, the GOP could make it a 50-50 tie by winning all four elections, which would effectively give them a majority because one of the fifty Democrats (Tom McKee) hasn't participated in House proceedings following a heart surgery.

All four of the districts holding elections voter for Romney in 2012, but I'm not sure whether any of the candidates have specific advantages otherwise.

If the GOP does take control of the chamber, Bevin's budget will likely pass and the Republicans will have full statewide control of Kentucky for the first time... ever?

Update: lol
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2016, 06:29:38 PM »

RIP Kynect. FF.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2016, 06:48:42 PM »

Are all four D vacancies (would the House be 54-46 D if not for the deaths, resignations) or are one or more of them R vacancies?
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KingSweden
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« Reply #3 on: March 07, 2016, 08:38:26 PM »

Are all four D vacancies (would the House be 54-46 D if not for the deaths, resignations) or are one or more of them R vacancies?

I believe (but am not sure) that it is two of each.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #4 on: March 07, 2016, 10:57:03 PM »
« Edited: March 07, 2016, 11:00:38 PM by Bandit3 the Worker »

1.) The most the GOP can get from the special elections is a 50/50 split.

2.) It's too late to switch parties and still run in November.

3.) Elections for House officers already took place in January, so even if the GOP got a majority, they wouldn't be allowed to pick new officers.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #5 on: March 07, 2016, 11:08:10 PM »

Also, Tom McKee just posted something on his Facebook page saying he's "back on the job" after his surgery and is expected to recover fully. So apparently he's back to his legislative duties already.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #6 on: March 08, 2016, 02:35:08 AM »

Also, Tom McKee just posted something on his Facebook page saying he's "back on the job" after his surgery and is expected to recover fully. So apparently he's back to his legislative duties already.
FF.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #7 on: March 08, 2016, 09:07:24 AM »

I'm also very disappointed that the statewide Democratic Party is putting so little effort into keeping the House. They keep claiming the House is their #1 priority, but there's a bunch of seats where they don't even have a candidate in November. If they won't even fight for the House, you can imagine how little effort they're putting into other offices.

In the special elections though, the individual candidates are at least putting in some effort. Labor unions are putting in some effort too.

The Democrats are just lucky that Matt Bevin and Donald Trump are such a drag on the GOP. But it may be too late.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #8 on: March 08, 2016, 11:23:47 AM »

I'm also very disappointed that the statewide Democratic Party is putting so little effort into keeping the House. They keep claiming the House is their #1 priority, but there's a bunch of seats where they don't even have a candidate in November. If they won't even fight for the House, you can imagine how little effort they're putting into other offices.

Do they have strong candidates or the resources to mount major efforts in this respect? Maybe the seats you refer to are also not viable for one reason or another at this time (I'm just guessing things here).

The Kentucky Democratic party has been losing across the board since the 1994 Republican Revolution, and as seen of late, their fall from power looks to be nearing completion. They are 2 statewide offices and 5 seats from holding no majorities or major offices of anything in the state.

So my thoughts are that maybe they can't get the resources they would need because at best it would only slightly delay the inevitable - Short of a major shift in the KY electorate back to their party, which would require significant policy changes and increased prosperity at this point, no?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #9 on: March 08, 2016, 11:34:28 AM »

Do they have strong candidates or the resources to mount major efforts in this respect? Maybe the seats you refer to are also not viable for one reason or another at this time (I'm just guessing things here).

In a lot of these seats, they would have had a fighting chance, especially if the Republican candidate has some scandal. The GOP can be taken down if their scandals are exposed. That's what happened in Morgan County a few years ago. Now Grant County government is having the same problems as Morgan County.

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It certainly isn't inevitable, as long as Donald Trump and the Tea Party keep ruining the GOP. In fact, it really wouldn't even be likely, especially if the Democrats actually had any guts.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #10 on: March 08, 2016, 11:36:52 AM »

I'm also very disappointed that the statewide Democratic Party is putting so little effort into keeping the House. They keep claiming the House is their #1 priority, but there's a bunch of seats where they don't even have a candidate in November. If they won't even fight for the House, you can imagine how little effort they're putting into other offices.

Do they have strong candidates or the resources to mount major efforts in this respect? Maybe the seats you refer to are also not viable for one reason or another at this time (I'm just guessing things here).

The Kentucky Democratic party has been losing across the board since the 1994 Republican Revolution, and as seen of late, their fall from power looks to be nearing completion. They are 2 statewide offices and 5 seats from holding no majorities or major offices of anything in the state.

So my thoughts are that maybe they can't get the resources they would need because at best it would only slightly delay the inevitable - Short of a major shift in the KY electorate back to their party, which would require significant policy changes and increased prosperity at this point, no?

It is pretty telling as to the Democrats problem that they now need poor people to stop being poor in order to win their votes. Didn't use to be like that.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #11 on: March 08, 2016, 11:41:09 AM »

Do they have strong candidates or the resources to mount major efforts in this respect? Maybe the seats you refer to are also not viable for one reason or another at this time (I'm just guessing things here).

In a lot of these seats, they would have had a fighting chance, especially if the Republican candidate has some scandal. The GOP can be taken down if their scandals are exposed. That's what happened in Morgan County a few years ago. Now Grant County government is having the same problems as Morgan County.

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It certainly isn't inevitable, as long as Donald Trump and the Tea Party keep ruining the GOP. In fact, it really wouldn't even be likely, especially if the Democrats actually had any guts.

So by ruining, you mean winning the Governorship by 8% instead of 20%?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #12 on: March 08, 2016, 11:41:20 AM »

It actually is conceivable (if not likely) that the Democrats could gain seats in November. Presidential elections do have much higher turnout.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #13 on: March 08, 2016, 11:43:06 AM »

So by ruining, you mean winning the Governorship by 8% instead of 20%?

If the Kentucky GOP was more like the GOP of the Eisenhower era or the "ZZ Top Republicans" of the late 1800s, they'd be doing better. But they wouldn't do as much damage either.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #14 on: March 08, 2016, 11:47:26 AM »

A lot of people here seem to underestimate just how militant the Kentucky GOP has become. And 'militant' is the correct word for it.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #15 on: March 08, 2016, 12:01:21 PM »

A lot of people here seem to underestimate just how militant the Kentucky GOP has become. And 'militant' is the correct word for it.

Perhaps. Do people there actually like Trump or feel they align more with Republicans, or is this shift in voting patterns because they just feel betrayed by Democrats but still prefer their agenda? Because if it's the latter, then there may be hope, but if not, then no. On at least some level, there shift is reminiscent of other states who realigned at various periods. Like, Delaware, where Republicans lost the Senate instead, but kept the House for a long time while losing literally everything else consistently until finally Obama came around and they were wiped out for good.

So there might not be anything they can do at this point.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #16 on: March 08, 2016, 12:09:50 PM »

Perhaps. Do people there actually like Trump or feel they align more with Republicans, or is this shift in voting patterns because they just feel betrayed by Democrats but still prefer their agenda?

People here don't like Trump. Or Bevin. But a lot of people here feel betrayed by the Democrats because of the Third Way stuff, and because the Democrats abandoned populism.

But the Republicans are now thought of as more of an exurban rump party. The cities are all Democratic now. Look at how well Jack Conway did in Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin counties.

For what it's worth, I think the Democrats actually widened their voter registration edge in the most recent report.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #17 on: March 08, 2016, 06:52:19 PM »

Don't look now, but the Republicans might already be mathematically eliminated: The Democrat is way ahead in the seat around Greenup. The Democrat is even way ahead in the seat around Georgetown, which was expected to be a Republican hold.
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #18 on: March 08, 2016, 07:28:06 PM »

Don't look now, but the Republicans might already be mathematically eliminated: The Democrat is way ahead in the seat around Greenup. The Democrat is even way ahead in the seat around Georgetown, which was expected to be a Republican hold.

http://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article64609062.html

This website says the Dem has already won District 62
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #19 on: March 08, 2016, 07:40:51 PM »

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a GOP-to-Dem flip: The seat north of Lexington has just flipped to the Democrats.
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windjammer
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« Reply #20 on: March 08, 2016, 07:56:53 PM »

Well,
That's going to be 53-47.
They gained a seat in the end Cheesy
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #21 on: March 08, 2016, 08:00:38 PM »

Well,
That's going to be 53-47.
They gained a seat in the end Cheesy

It could still be 52-48 if the GOP flips the Hopkinsville seat.
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windjammer
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« Reply #22 on: March 08, 2016, 08:01:33 PM »

Well,
That's going to be 53-47.
They gained a seat in the end Cheesy

It could still be 52-48 if the GOP flips the Hopkinsville seat.
On twitter, they say the final result is 3-1 for the democrats.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #23 on: March 08, 2016, 08:04:58 PM »

Wonder what happened in Quarles' seat (62). Anyhoo, onto November.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #24 on: March 08, 2016, 08:10:47 PM »

God Bless the Kentucky House Democrats.
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