KY House Special Elections End Up Not Resulting in GOP Majority

[Bandit3 the Worker]

1.) The most the GOP can get from the special elections is a 50/50 split.

2.) It's too late to switch parties and still run in November.

3.) Elections for House officers already took place in January, so even if the GOP got a majority, they wouldn't be allowed to pick new officers.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, Tom McKee just posted something on his Facebook page saying he's "back on the job" after his surgery and is expected to recover fully. So apparently he's back to his legislative duties already.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'm also very disappointed that the statewide Democratic Party is putting so little effort into keeping the House. They keep claiming the House is their #1 priority, but there's a bunch of seats where they don't even have a candidate in November. If they won't even fight for the House, you can imagine how little effort they're putting into other offices.

In the special elections though, the individual candidates are at least putting in some effort. Labor unions are putting in some effort too.

The Democrats are just lucky that Matt Bevin and Donald Trump are such a drag on the GOP. But it may be too late.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Do they have strong candidates or the resources to mount major efforts in this respect? Maybe the seats you refer to are also not viable for one reason or another at this time (I'm just guessing things here).

In a lot of these seats, they would have had a fighting chance, especially if the Republican candidate has some scandal. The GOP can be taken down if their scandals are exposed. That's what happened in Morgan County a few years ago. Now Grant County government is having the same problems as Morgan County.

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It certainly isn't inevitable, as long as Donald Trump and the Tea Party keep ruining the GOP. In fact, it really wouldn't even be likely, especially if the Democrats actually had any guts.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It actually is conceivable (if not likely) that the Democrats could gain seats in November. Presidential elections do have much higher turnout.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

So by ruining, you mean winning the Governorship by 8% instead of 20%?

If the Kentucky GOP was more like the GOP of the Eisenhower era or the "ZZ Top Republicans" of the late 1800s, they'd be doing better. But they wouldn't do as much damage either.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

A lot of people here seem to underestimate just how militant the Kentucky GOP has become. And 'militant' is the correct word for it.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Perhaps. Do people there actually like Trump or feel they align more with Republicans, or is this shift in voting patterns because they just feel betrayed by Democrats but still prefer their agenda?

People here don't like Trump. Or Bevin. But a lot of people here feel betrayed by the Democrats because of the Third Way stuff, and because the Democrats abandoned populism.

But the Republicans are now thought of as more of an exurban rump party. The cities are all Democratic now. Look at how well Jack Conway did in Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin counties.

For what it's worth, I think the Democrats actually widened their voter registration edge in the most recent report.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Don't look now, but the Republicans might already be mathematically eliminated: The Democrat is way ahead in the seat around Greenup. The Democrat is even way ahead in the seat around Georgetown, which was expected to be a Republican hold.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a GOP-to-Dem flip: The seat north of Lexington has just flipped to the Democrats.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Well,
That's going to be 53-47.
They gained a seat in the end

It could still be 52-48 if the GOP flips the Hopkinsville seat.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Everyone said it couldn't be done.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Now the question is - Can they hold these seats this November? I don't have the numbers, but I'm sure turnout was extremely low for this special election, even by Kentucky levels.

For a special election in Kentucky, turnout was stunningly high.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If it were anywhere less rural or further from Appalachia, I would say yes with Trump vs. Clinton at the top of the ticket.  But in KY, Trump could bring out conservadems in unprecedented numbers and there aren't as many traditionally Republican suburbs to counter that.  If Cruz is the nominee, they will likely hold.  If it's Trump, it's 50/50 at best for them.

I think Trump is just a drag on the whole Republican ticket.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Yeah, it looks like 2018 (not 2016) will be the year Republicans finally make their breakthrough in the House.  

I don't think it'll happen at all. Ever.

By 2018, we might not even have a Republican Party.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If 1964 couldn't permanently end the Republican party, 2016 won't either.

Goldwater was nothing like Trump.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

"We're going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business."

In a 1990 Playboy interview, Donald Trump said, "The coal miner gets black lung disease, his son gets it, then his son. If I had been the son of a coal miner, I would have left the damn mines. But most people don’t have the imagination - or whatever - to leave their mine. They don't have 'it.'"

Checkmate.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think the caucuses helped the GOP. Electioneering laws don't apply at caucuses, so the candidates were allowed to campaign there.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The Kentucky GOP now has a fundraising advantage over their Democratic counterparts. 

Don't they always?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The Kentucky GOP now has a fundraising advantage over their Democratic counterparts. 

Don't they always?

No.  Until this year, Democrats nearly always dominated their Republican counterparts.  Just last year nearly every Democrat had a fundraising advantage. 

But that didn't count "nonpartisan" groups like the Tea Party that aren't really nonpartisan.