What will the Trump-Kasich gap be in Michigan?

[Lyin' Steve]

From what the polls are saying it looks like Rubio is finished here and Kasich is surging.
Does Kasich have a real chance?  If not, how close will he finish behind Trump?
And will he get favorable coverage for it or will it just go un-noticed, like his Vermont play?

[Maxwell]

I suspect he wins by a point or so now. With TRUMP in second and Cruz taking a very very strong third place above 25%.

And I mean, my god Marco drop out already son.

[Suburbia]

7-10 points I think.

[PeteB]

I voted for a Kasich win but, realistically, if the new Monmouth poll is correct, both Kasich and Cruz will do well in MI, and it should in turn allow Trump to win it.  But, since MI is not a WTA state, it will be good PR byt only a pyrrhic victory for Trump.

[President Johnson]

10-13%. I say 11%.

TRUMP: 39%
Kasich: 28%
Rafael: 24%
Rubot: 9%

[PeteB]

Fwiw, this is from private GOP polling in MI (from Detroit News):

"...There was more evidence of a Trump fade in private polling conducted by Republican strategist John Yob. In a rolling survey of 464 people, nearly 50 percent of voters whose minds were made up more than two weeks ago broke for Trump; just 21.4 percent went for Cruz, and just 19.2 percent went for Kasich. But voters who had decided in the last two weeks were breaking for Kasich -- 44.3 percent of them. Just 21.2 percent were choosing Trump. And voters making up their minds in the last few days, since the Detroit debate, were splitting 41.7 percent for Kasich, 26.2 percent for Cruz, and 19.1 percent for Trump...."

[Gass3268]

Fwiw, this is from private GOP polling in MI (from Detroit News):

"...There was more evidence of a Trump fade in private polling conducted by Republican strategist John Yob. In a rolling survey of 464 people, nearly 50 percent of voters whose minds were made up more than two weeks ago broke for Trump; just 21.4 percent went for Cruz, and just 19.2 percent went for Kasich. But voters who had decided in the last two weeks were breaking for Kasich -- 44.3 percent of them. Just 21.2 percent were choosing Trump. And voters making up their minds in the last few days, since the Detroit debate, were splitting 41.7 percent for Kasich, 26.2 percent for Cruz, and 19.1 percent for Trump...."

This has been the trend since the beginning. Trump supporters are more locked in to their choice, and late deciders have broken against Trump. This has been the tend.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Kasich 34%
Trump 33%
Cruz 19%
Rubio 14%

[The Free North]

I think some 20% in MI have voted early (cant remember the source, read it earlier today) so given that I could see Kasich with a close surge late, but not enough to win. Probably loses to Trump by 5% with Cruz a decent 3rd and Boy Wonder riding in the Caboose.

[Lief 🗽]

Kasich wins, I think.

[Higgs]

Trump wins by about 7%

[P123]

7-10 points I think.

[win win]

Trump gets 42 and wins by 20.

[Xing]

Call me crazy, but I think Cruz will get second. Kasich could get a close third, so it might be another "three-man race." I'm remembering that Santorum almost beat Romney here in 2012, and Michigan was sort of a second home state for Romney. Especially with Cruz's recent success, I think he has a lot of potential here, though I could be wrong.

[Maxwell]

Call me crazy, but I think Cruz will get second. Kasich could get a close third, so it might be another "three-man race." I'm remembering that Santorum almost beat Romney here in 2012, and Michigan was sort of a second home state for Romney. Especially with Cruz's recent success, I think he has a lot of potential here, though I could be wrong.

Cruz has good organizational strength - but the question is can Cruz expand beyond his little niche of very conservative voters.

[The Other Castro]

Imagine a 31-31-31 split and little Marco at a lonely 7%.

[P123]

Call me crazy, but I think Cruz will get second. Kasich could get a close third, so it might be another "three-man race." I'm remembering that Santorum almost beat Romney here in 2012, and Michigan was sort of a second home state for Romney. Especially with Cruz's recent success, I think he has a lot of potential here, though I could be wrong.

Differences is Romney was a terrible candidate for that region.

[Maxwell]

The problem is that Cruz doesn't really have that populist feel that Santorum gave off in Michigan (which was a primary reason for his success there beyond being the anti-Romney), TRUMP does. Cruz appeals to very staunchly conservative Republicans and evangelical Christians, but there are less of those here than in most of the past couple of states. Working class moderates who aren't especially ideological are not Cruz's base but they are TRUMP's base and, increasingly, they are Kasich's base.

[Classic Conservative]

Call me crazy, but I think Cruz will get second. Kasich could get a close third, so it might be another "three-man race." I'm remembering that Santorum almost beat Romney here in 2012, and Michigan was sort of a second home state for Romney. Especially with Cruz's recent success, I think he has a lot of potential here, though I could be wrong.

I can see this as he has high levels of support at Hillsdale College and multiple other conservative areas and Amash's endorsement.

[White Trash]

I'm more curious to know what the Kasich-Cruz gap will be. Polls have shown them being relatively close.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Call me crazy, but I think Cruz will get second. Kasich could get a close third, so it might be another "three-man race." I'm remembering that Santorum almost beat Romney here in 2012, and Michigan was sort of a second home state for Romney. Especially with Cruz's recent success, I think he has a lot of potential here, though I could be wrong.

I can see this as he has high levels of support at Hillsdale College and multiple other conservative areas and Amash's endorsement.

Of course people at Hillsdale are going to support Cruz, and of course Amash is going to endorse him. Doesn't mean a thing. Cruz doesn't deserve anything close to a win in a Rust Belt state.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Trump 36%
Kasich 15%

[bagelman]

Kasich will finish like he did in Vermont - nearly able to beat Trump, but spoiled by the spoiled child Rubio.

[Simfan34]

[TomC]

Yuuugge, of course!