Kent Conrad...

[Moooooo]

Discuss...

His chances at the nomination are probably slim to none, but does he have the potential to be a strong GE candidate?

What about the VP slot?  Could he have a strong impact in the midwest and the Dakota's?

[Sam Spade]

Remember the last time the Democrats ran a candidate from the Dakotas? 

Anyway, seriously, he wouldn't flip North Dakota as a VP.  VP's typically only bring 5-7% from their home state maximum (normally 3-5%).

He'd help protect Minnesota a little maybe, except if Republicans run a Minnesotan on the Prez or VP spot.

Might help a little among rural voters, depending on who the Democrats nominate, and who the Republicans nominate

[opebo]

I think he would be a fairly decent candidate.  Unlikely to pass the primary though, as his abortion record is poor.  I think it is conceivable that North Dakotans would be so excited about one of their own running for president that he would actually have a chance there.
Conrad vs. Allen:

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If he made the Iraq war an issue, he could easily win the nomination with his NO vote.

[opebo]

If he made the Iraq war an issue, he could easily win the nomination with his NO vote.

Wow, that is an exciting thought.  He could certainly do no worse than Kerry, and I'm pretty sure he'd at least pick up Iowa.. and probably NM and NV with Richardson as VP. 

I just don't know what to think about ND.. he's quite popular there.  They're so Republican but in a state that tiny I could see them flipping just on the native son excitement.  Assuming I was too optimistic about Colorado in the above map, he'd have to get ND to avoid a tie.

[AuH2O]

Is this a joke?

Next thing you know, Dirk Kempthorne will be a GOP contender.

I mean, I know some people have too much time on their hands, but let's be a little more serious around here.

[opebo]

Is this a joke?

Next thing you know, Dirk Kempthorne will be a GOP contender.

I mean, I know some people have too much time on their hands, but let's be a little more serious around here.

I agree Conrad has little chance in the primary, as stated above.  However he would do fairly well in the general.

[AuH2O]

Is this a joke?

Next thing you know, Dirk Kempthorne will be a GOP contender.

I mean, I know some people have too much time on their hands, but let's be a little more serious around here.

I agree Conrad has little chance in the primary, as stated above.  However he would do fairly well in the general.

If by "fairly well" you mean he would get at least 45%, I think you're right. Beyond that, speculation is virtually impossible.

In any case, he has a more immediate problem. Rhymes with "woven."

[opebo]

Is this a joke?

Next thing you know, Dirk Kempthorne will be a GOP contender.

I mean, I know some people have too much time on their hands, but let's be a little more serious around here.

I agree Conrad has little chance in the primary, as stated above.  However he would do fairly well in the general.

If by "fairly well" you mean he would get at least 45%, I think you're right. Beyond that, speculation is virtually impossible.

In any case, he has a more immediate problem. Rhymes with "woven."

It is hard to imagine a Kerry state that would not be a Conrad state. 

[minionofmidas]

Oh, that's easy. You do have to assume a moderate Republican though.
And yeah, of course, just like Rick Santorum, he'll have to win reelection first.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I don't see why an anti-war candidate who got 61% in his last statewide election in North Dakota wouldn't have a good chance at winning the primary. There are a lot of Democrats pissed off about the war.

[Moooooo]

Is this a joke?

Next thing you know, Dirk Kempthorne will be a GOP contender.

I mean, I know some people have too much time on their hands, but let's be a little more serious around here.

I was mostly thinking about the VP slot.  Why is it so far fetched that he land the VP slot?

[opebo]

Oh, that's easy. You do have to assume a moderate Republican though.
And yeah, of course, just like Rick Santorum, he'll have to win reelection first.

A moderate Republican is a near impossibility, given the religious control of the GOP.

[Ben Meyers]

I think the other Senator from North Dakota has a better chance.  What's his name?  Byron Dorgan?

[AuH2O]

Is this a joke?

Next thing you know, Dirk Kempthorne will be a GOP contender.

I mean, I know some people have too much time on their hands, but let's be a little more serious around here.

I was mostly thinking about the VP slot.  Why is it so far fetched that he land the VP slot?

I just don't see it. The VP slot does very little in terms of securing states-- it certainly wouldn't flip even 3 EV N.D.-- and beyond that, what worth does Conrad have?

Cheney was picked for his gravitas. Conrad doesn't have them, not in the spades that would justify a VP selection.

[Sam Spade]

Is this a joke?

Next thing you know, Dirk Kempthorne will be a GOP contender.

I mean, I know some people have too much time on their hands, but let's be a little more serious around here.

I was mostly thinking about the VP slot.  Why is it so far fetched that he land the VP slot?

It isn't necessarily.  I did say he was a long shot, though, and I stand by that.

There's certainly no way he could come close to securing North Dakota's EVs for the reasons listed in my post above.

Other than that, I only see effectiveness in breaking in to the rural vote in the upper Midwest, maybe.

[Ben Meyers]

Conrad on the ticket would probably help the Dems hold on to Minnesota and Wisconsin, and possibly get Iowa. 

[WalterMitty]

Conrad on the ticket would probably help the Dems hold on to Minnesota and Wisconsin, and possibly get Iowa. 

the vast majority of people in those states mentioned have no idea who kent conrad is.

[Sam Spade]

Conrad on the ticket would probably help the Dems hold on to Minnesota and Wisconsin, and possibly get Iowa. 

the vast majority of people in those states mentioned have no idea who kent conrad is.

Agreed. 

Maybe Conrad helps with 0.5% boost in Minnesota if no Republican is nominated for VP or Prez from Minnesota, but that's probably stretching his boost, imo.

Any boost in Iowa and Wisconsin would be much less than Minnesota (geographical distance)

[Alcon]

Conrad on the ticket would probably help the Dems hold on to Minnesota and Wisconsin, and possibly get Iowa. 

the vast majority of people in those states mentioned have no idea who kent conrad is.

I actually have to disagree with you here - they would by the time he is running for President, and there's a chance that he might get a boost in western Minnesota, especially along the North Dakota border. If he ran on a "midwestern values" campaign he could do quite well in Minnesota.

I do not, however, think he would by any means automatically carry those states.

[minionofmidas]

Every other politician successful in Minnesota was born in the Dakotas, though.

[MHS2002]

Conrad is a nobody outside of North Dakota. Realistically, he won't flip any states and wouldn't bring much to a ticket as a VP.