Republican Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET)

[yankeesfan]

Rubio might get shut out of Georgia--below the 20% threshold

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

CNN just now calling GA for Trump

This feels more and more like 2000.  It's just exit polls, not actual vote tallies.

Exit polls in which he's ahead almost two-to-one. Don't concern troll.

Any races already called? Just tuned in.

Georgia for Trump, all three Democratic races that have closed (Vermont, Virginia, Georgia) for who you'd expect.

[SingingAnalyst]

GA, 1% reporting

Trump 51.4%
Cruz 24.2%
Rubio 16.7%

Clinton 75.5%
Sanders 24.2%

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I think that Trump might severely underperform tonight.

Yeah but only if you expected him to win 50% of the vote in every state.

I thought that TRUMP would win VT and VA in a landslide, but it's really close. I think he might underperform (but still win) in most states tonight.

No returns out of Vermont yet.

[RI]

Rubio might get shut out of Georgia--below the 20% threshold

Nothing from Atlanta area yet.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Any races already called? Just tuned in.

Georgia called for TRUMP, Too close to call between KASICH and TRUMP in Vermont and TOO CLOSE to call between RUBIO and TRUMP in Virginia.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

CNN just now calling GA for Trump

This feels more and more like 2000.  It's just exit polls, not actual vote tallies.

Exit polls in which he's ahead two-to-one.

Exit polls in which Gore was winning in Florida, and raw vote tallies had Bush leading.  And exit polls in which Kerry won by a landslide in 2004.

[DavidB.]

Any races already called? Just tuned in.

Georgia called for TRUMP, Too close to call between KASICH and TRUMP in Vermont and TOO CLOSE to call between RUBIO and TRUMP in Virginia.

CNN just now calling GA for Trump

This feels more and more like 2000.  It's just exit polls, not actual vote tallies.

Exit polls in which he's ahead almost two-to-one. Don't concern troll.

Any races already called? Just tuned in.

Georgia for Trump, all three Democratic races that have closed (Vermont, Virginia, Georgia) for who you'd expect.

Thanks!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

CNN just now calling GA for Trump

This feels more and more like 2000.  It's just exit polls, not actual vote tallies.

Exit polls in which he's ahead two-to-one.

Exit polls in which Gore was winning in Florida, and raw vote tallies had Bush leading.  And exit polls in which Kerry won by a landslide in 2004.

None of which involved someone leading by a nearly two-to-one margin and ending up losing.

[Mr. Morden]

More Virginia exits, here’s the Rubio/Trump margin by demo:

men: Trump +10%
women: Rubio +5%
white: Trump +5%
non-white: Rubio +3%
non-college graduate: Trump +19%
college graduate: Rubio +10%
under $100k income: Trump +13%
over $100k income: Rubio +12%
conservative: Trump +7%
moderate: Rubio +13%
Evangelical: Trump +8%
non-Evangelical: Rubio +7%
urban area: Rubio +4%
suburban area: Rubio +3%
rural area: Trump +20%

39% would be dissatisfied if Rubio wins the nomination
53% would be dissatisfied if Trump wins the nomination
56% would be dissatisfied if Cruz wins the nomination

Who ran the most unfair campaign?
Trump 42%
Cruz 35%
Rubio 11%

[RR1997]

Any races already called? Just tuned in.

What you've missed:

According to an exit poll, Kasich is only 1% behind TRUMP, despite the fact that the polls have shown a huge TRUMP lead. Kasich might actually win VT. In Virginia, Rubio is only 2% behind Trump, despite the fact that TRUMP has been leading in according to most polls. Rubio might actually beat TRUMP, but this is unlikely.

Georgia was called for Trump and Hillary. Vermont was called for Sanders. Virginia was called for Hillary. This is all you've missed. You didn't miss much.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

DDHQ has Kasich winning Fairfax and Carson winning a county.

[The Free North]

Vermont taking their sweet time to report results here.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

CNN just now calling GA for Trump

This feels more and more like 2000.  It's just exit polls, not actual vote tallies.

Exit polls in which he's ahead two-to-one.

Exit polls in which Gore was winning in Florida, and raw vote tallies had Bush leading.  And exit polls in which Kerry won by a landslide in 2004.

None of which involved someone leading by a nearly two-to-one margin and ending up losing.

Kerry was winning by 15-20 points in the exit polls from several close states.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Trump 36% Rubio 32% on DDHQ

[Likely Voter]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If accurate, then Trump clearly wins

[Nathan Towne]

Based on how diverse the numbers coming in from Virginia are right now relative to the areas of the state in which they doing so, I think that the state is looking very good for Trump at the moment.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

CNN just now calling GA for Trump

This feels more and more like 2000.  It's just exit polls, not actual vote tallies.

Exit polls in which he's ahead two-to-one.

Exit polls in which Gore was winning in Florida, and raw vote tallies had Bush leading.  And exit polls in which Kerry won by a landslide in 2004.

None of which involved someone leading by a nearly two-to-one margin and ending up losing.

Kerry was winning by 15-20 points in the exit polls from several close states.

Oh for Christ's sake. The ratio is important, the state fundamentals are important, the previous polling in the state is important, the fact that polling technology has improved in the past eleven years is important.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

DDHQ has Kasich winning Fairfax and Carson winning a county.

Where are they getting their returns?  Those are completely different from CNN's numbers.

[Mr. Morden]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If accurate, then Trump clearly wins

Well, he's obviously going to win if the exit poll is right.  I already posted the topline #s, and they have Trump ahead by 2 or 3 points.

[RI]

DDHQ has Kasich winning Fairfax and Carson winning a county.

Where are they getting their returns?  Those are completely different from CNN's numbers.

They have people on the ground.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

WHERE IS CRUUUUUZZZZZZ

[Nathan Towne]

Virginia is looking like a victory for Trump to me at the moment.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

CNN just now calling GA for Trump

This feels more and more like 2000.  It's just exit polls, not actual vote tallies.

Exit polls in which he's ahead two-to-one.

Exit polls in which Gore was winning in Florida, and raw vote tallies had Bush leading.  And exit polls in which Kerry won by a landslide in 2004.

None of which involved someone leading by a nearly two-to-one margin and ending up losing.

Kerry was winning by 15-20 points in the exit polls from several close states.

Oh for Christ's sake. The ratio is important, the state fundamentals are important, the previous polling in the state is important, the fact that polling technology has improved in the past eleven years is important.

How?  I wouldn't call online polling better or more accurate than traditional polling.

[komodozer]

Pro-tip:  Northern Virginia always reports last.

At least during presidential elections.