WBZ-UMass Amherst Poll: Clinton 47, Sanders 44. Trump 47, Rubio and Cruz 15
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  WBZ-UMass Amherst Poll: Clinton 47, Sanders 44. Trump 47, Rubio and Cruz 15
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Author Topic: WBZ-UMass Amherst Poll: Clinton 47, Sanders 44. Trump 47, Rubio and Cruz 15  (Read 1855 times)
A Perez
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« on: February 29, 2016, 07:30:23 AM »
« edited: February 29, 2016, 07:32:34 AM by A Perez »

Terrible article. "dead heat" ia not a thing. Experts tell you that statistical tie, dead heat, etc. Don't exist.
Clinton leads Sanders in Massachusetts. Newspapers get more clicks by not alienating the losing candidate, pretending he is "tied".

Second,. the poll was conducted before SC and even partially befor Nevada. In conclusion, this poll will underestimate Clinton's support. Some here use the term" garbage poll" for that.

  http://boston.cbslocal.com/2016/02/29/massachusetts-primary-wbz-umass-poll-super-tuesday-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders/
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: February 29, 2016, 09:44:13 AM »

Full #s:

https://cbsboston.files.wordpress.com/2016/02/toplines_horserace_only.pdf

Dems

Clinton 47%
Sanders 44%

GOP

Trump 47%
Rubio 15%
Cruz 15%
Kasich 11%
Carson 2%
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Holmes
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« Reply #2 on: February 29, 2016, 10:47:00 AM »

sh**t... she's really gonna run away with Massachusetts, isn't she?
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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« Reply #3 on: February 29, 2016, 11:01:39 AM »

Terrible article. "dead heat" ia not a thing. Experts tell you that statistical tie, dead heat, etc. Don't exist.

Uh, what?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #4 on: February 29, 2016, 11:32:23 AM »

Terrible article. "dead heat" ia not a thing. Experts tell you that statistical tie, dead heat, etc. Don't exist.

Uh, what?
A Perez is a bit demented.
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Holmes
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« Reply #5 on: February 29, 2016, 11:36:22 AM »

Emerson's releasing their final numbers tonight at 6 (along with Texas). They overestimated Clinton in New Hampshire, right? So I'll only really feel certain she's going to win if she's up by 10%, otherwise it'll be close.

ECPS ‏@EmersonPolling  3h3 hours ago
New #Massachusetts #Democratic Primary Poll:
Shows @HillaryClinton winning 8/9 congressional districts #mapoli

ECPS ‏@EmersonPolling  34m34 minutes ago
New #Massachusetts #Democratic Presidential Primary Poll:
Shows @HillaryClinton at a 74% favorable rating among #Democrats #mapoli

ECPS ‏@EmersonPolling  5h5 hours ago
New #Massachusetts #Republican Presidential Primary Poll:
Shows @realDonaldTrump winning 9/9 congressional districts #mapoli

ECPS ‏@EmersonPolling  4h4 hours ago
New #Massachusetts #Republican Presidential Primary Poll:
Shows @realDonaldTrump with a favorable rating of 69% among #Republicans #mapoli
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Shadows
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« Reply #6 on: February 29, 2016, 11:48:12 AM »

This is a great poll for Sanders - Only 3% behind is a poll which has 32% of voters above 65 & only 11% under 30.

After that horrendous poll of 8% behind seeing a 3% gap (mind you there is a 1% gap under the MOE in the poll - The 3% comes after Weighing in Demographics), this is much more re-assuring.

Further proves how Voter Turnout & specifically Young voter turnout will decide Mass. If Sanders can get a record turnout & high young voters, he will win
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Figueira
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« Reply #7 on: February 29, 2016, 12:01:50 PM »

Not as bad for Sanders as the last poll. It's still pre-SC though.
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A Perez
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« Reply #8 on: February 29, 2016, 12:09:21 PM »

Terrible article. "dead heat" ia not a thing. Experts tell you that statistical tie, dead heat, etc. Don't exist.

Uh, what?
Uh,  Nate Silver can tell you what. Read and be embarrassed.   https://mobile.twitter.com/natesilver538/status/136122796421025792
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A Perez
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« Reply #9 on: February 29, 2016, 12:10:04 PM »

Terrible article. "dead heat" ia not a thing. Experts tell you that statistical tie, dead heat, etc. Don't exist.

Uh, what?
A Perez is a bit demented.
And you just embarrassed yourself  https://mobile.twitter.com/natesilver538/status/136122796421025792
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: February 29, 2016, 12:32:43 PM »

Emerson's releasing their final numbers tonight at 6 (along with Texas). They overestimated Clinton in New Hampshire, right? So I'll only really feel certain she's going to win if she's up by 10%, otherwise it'll be close.

ECPS ‏@EmersonPolling  3h3 hours ago
New #Massachusetts #Democratic Primary Poll:
Shows @HillaryClinton winning 8/9 congressional districts #mapoli

ECPS ‏@EmersonPolling  34m34 minutes ago
New #Massachusetts #Democratic Presidential Primary Poll:
Shows @HillaryClinton at a 74% favorable rating among #Democrats #mapoli

ECPS ‏@EmersonPolling  5h5 hours ago
New #Massachusetts #Republican Presidential Primary Poll:
Shows @realDonaldTrump winning 9/9 congressional districts #mapoli

ECPS ‏@EmersonPolling  4h4 hours ago
New #Massachusetts #Republican Presidential Primary Poll:
Shows @realDonaldTrump with a favorable rating of 69% among #Republicans #mapoli

Emerson doesn't always overestimate Hillary. They had her up 23 in SC. And part of the field dates of this poll were even before Nevada, so it's more likely the ones showing her up 5/8 are more accurate.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #11 on: February 29, 2016, 12:38:24 PM »

I didn't say you were wrong, it is just that this forum isn't about one upping people and angrily ranting about bloviating headlines.
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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« Reply #12 on: February 29, 2016, 01:40:18 PM »

Terrible article. "dead heat" ia not a thing. Experts tell you that statistical tie, dead heat, etc. Don't exist.

Uh, what?
Uh,  Nate Silver can tell you what. Read and be embarrassed.   https://mobile.twitter.com/natesilver538/status/136122796421025792

lol
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A Perez
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« Reply #13 on: February 29, 2016, 02:38:34 PM »

I didn't say you were wrong, it is just that this forum isn't about one upping people and angrily ranting about bloviating headlines.
You thought I was wrong. Don't pretend your post was about something else.
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shua
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« Reply #14 on: February 29, 2016, 02:46:27 PM »

15% for Cruz in MA?  Uh...
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #15 on: February 29, 2016, 03:41:32 PM »

New Poll: Massachusetts President by UMass Poll on 2016-02-25

Summary:
Trump:
47%
Cruz:
15%
Rubio:
15%
Kasich:
11%
Other:
9%
Undecided:
3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #16 on: February 29, 2016, 03:43:24 PM »

New Poll: Massachusetts President by UMass Poll on 2016-02-25

Summary:
Clinton:
47%
Sanders:
44%
Other:
4%
Undecided:
5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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President Johnson
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« Reply #17 on: February 29, 2016, 05:34:48 PM »

The GOP is TRUMPED.
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