Democratic South Carolina Primary results thread (polls close @7pm ET)

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I can only imagine what IceSpears sig is going to be for the next six months.

[Skye]

Huh, Bernie might as well have an R next to his name.

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finished counties (again)

[Liberalrocks]

Georgia and Texas will be really bad on Tuesday.

Revising prediction margins for the south now.

[The Other Castro]

Actually, illuminativampire from AAD is probably going to come the closest out of anyone:

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[trickmind]

Georgia and Texas will be really bad on Tuesday.

Especially since unlike SC, Sanders put nearly no effort into those two.

Looks like both primaries are going to be wrapped up in the next 15 days.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Georgia and Texas will be really bad on Tuesday.

Revising prediction margins for the south now.

Don't forget my home state, Virginia.

[Blue3]

Has Sanders given his speech yet?

Sanders isn't giving a speech. He's on an airplane.

[The Free North]

2008 is probably going to maintain turnout records for quite some time. 500k+ votes cast in the Dem primary 8 years ago, not even close this time.

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/SC.html

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/south-carolina

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five counties left

[jaichind]

2008 is probably going to maintain turnout records for quite some time. 500k+ votes cast in the Dem primary 8 years ago, not even close this time.

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/SC.html

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/south-carolina

Yep.  A interesting fact is that at end of all this Clinton's total votes would only barely beat the total votes Trump got in SC.  Even though Trump "only" won 32.5% of the vote.

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41 precincts left. 28 are in York County, which does tend to be very slow.

[Blue3]

With 99% of precincts reporting, she's at 73.5%... Sanders at 25.9%.

[adma]

Honestly, given the nature of Sanders' campaign, I don't expect (much less recommend) him to drop out even if the chances of his nomination have gotten so much slimmer.  He still serves a purpose as a symbolic magnet for a certain kind of voter; and sneer if you must, but that's an important role to play, at least on the kinds of granular, barometric statistical grounds that even a half-decent Hillary strategist would do well in parsing.  And Sanders serves said purpose much more emphatically than, say, Ben Carson, whose persistence in the GOP race truly *is* a delusional waste of time.  (Also, Sanders isn't going anywhere soon, as he remains a Senator--and again, given the nature etc etc, even if he loses, his run at the Presidency is a net boost to his Congressional profile and clout)

And keep in mind that I'm speaking from a Canadian perspective--over here, at least among us psephologically inclined,  there can be a lot read into even landslide Conservative results in, uh, Ted Cruz's Alberta.  Whereas to a lot of you, such seats are so obviously slam dunk that they might as well be Conservative acclamations, and any Liberals or New Democrats or Greens or whomever are delusional nutcases for even bothering to put up an obviously futile active challenge.  Well, if so, it's not my fault that you truly suck at that kind of fine-grain psephology which can help you learn a lot about a place.  (It helps that here in Canada, whether first or second hand, polling division maps and poll-by-poll results tend to be freely available--indeed, I've seen at least one US observer puzzled by that free availability, "couldn't that data be abused by outside parties", etc etc.).

So on that note, even if he'll "inevitably" lose the nomination, Leave Bernie Be.  

[IceSpear]

Hillary even won 51-49 among those who said their most important quality was "honest and trustworthy"

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Donald Trump may have been the biggest loser tonight.  Bernie Sanders, a man with five decades of fighting racial injustice under his belt, got about as much of the black vote tonight as George Bush did during the 2004 general election.  How do you think some racist real-estate mongrel will do?  The only way Republicans will win the general is if the non-white part of our electorate shrinks while the white share becomes more Republican (something that's certainly not impossible, if primary turnout is any indicator).  It won't be because the GOP is actually flipping black votes.  

[Lyin' Steve]

So how the hell did this happen?  We all thought it would be somewhere around 60-40, the margin is thirty points wider than anyone thought.  How did she swing that many people under everyone's nose?  If she'd won by 25-30 we would all have said she overperformed.  How is it even possible to surprise by winning by 50?  How did none of the polls catch this?  How did nobody see this coming?

Honestly this is one of the most impressive political performances I've ever seen.  Hillary beat her polling gap by thirty points.  When has that ever happened in an election?

[Türkisblau]

Donald Trump may have been the biggest loser tonight.  Bernie Sanders, a man with five decades of fighting racial injustice under his belt, got about as much of the black vote tonight as George Bush did during the 2004 general election.  How do you think some racist real-estate mongrel will do?  The only way Republicans will win the general is if the non-white part of our electorate shrinks (something that's certainly not impossible, if primary turnout is any indicator).  It won't be because the GOP is actually flipping black votes.  

? The blacks love Donald.

But seriously, there's no reason to believe he'd do abnormally lower than other Republicans in the past, and in fact it's likely he'd beat Romney's numbers.

[IceSpear]

So how the hell did this happen?  We all thought it would be somewhere around 60-40, the margin is thirty points wider than anyone thought.  How did she swing that many people under everyone's nose?  If she'd won by 25-30 we would all have said she overperformed.  How is it even possible to surprise by winning by 50?  How did none of the polls catch this?  How did nobody see this coming?

Honestly this is one of the most impressive political performances I've ever seen.  Hillary beat her polling gap by thirty points.  When has that ever happened in an election?

Every single poll besides Clemson was taken before a) Hillary's NV win b) The Clyburn endorsement and c) Bernie publicly giving up on the state.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So how the hell did this happen?  We all thought it would be somewhere around 60-40, the margin is thirty points wider than anyone thought.  How did she swing that many people under everyone's nose?  If she'd won by 25-30 we would all have said she overperformed.  How is it even possible to surprise by winning by 50?  How did none of the polls catch this?  How did nobody see this coming?

Honestly this is one of the most impressive political performances I've ever seen.  Hillary beat her polling gap by thirty points.  When has that ever happened in an election?

Someone floated the theory that the pollsters underestimated just how much the white Democratic vote has eroded since 2008. It looks like a lot more of them defected to the GOP and voted in their primary if they'd haven't literally died. The black vote went up by several percentage points.

And on top of that, what whites who have remained Democratic are so moderate/conservative that they still stuck with Clinton. I don't expect this last bit to continue as we move into Super Tuesday; think of South Carolina as the most extreme state that this happened in.

[RI]

Well, and it's pretty difficult to accurately poll the black community in the South.

[yourelection]

99% in. No district won by Sanders. 73.5% to 26.0%. 37 delegates to 12.

[Holmes]

74-26, jesus christ.

[Dr. Arch]

74-26, jesus christ.

Clinton +49...

Yep.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, counting went up really fast this time.