There is not an ounce of evidence that 2016 will be a landslide election for HRC

[indysaff]

Honestly there's no telling if Trump is the nominee. Predict it at your own peril.

I don't see how he could fail to win the nomination at this point.

[Devils30]

When Hillary wins the nomination and gets Bernie's full-throated endorsement, it's not hard seeing her lead over Trump going from 2% to 6-8%. She will also attack Trump as *** crazy, something that none of the other GOP will do as they waste time attacking him for not being conservative enough.

[Nym90]

Trump's favorable ratings with the general public are god-awful and in fact not any better than they were when he began his campaign (as any improvement with Republicans has been replaced by his ratings going into the tank with Dems/Indys). Hillary's are bad, too, but Trump's are way worse. He assures high minority turnout for Hillary, which otherwise would have been a concern for her.

His only chance to win is if there is a major economic meltdown or terrorist attack before the election. Even then, it's not assured.

[Maxwell]

Trump's favorable ratings with the general public are god-awful and in fact not any better than they were when he began his campaign (as any improvement with Republicans has been replaced by his ratings going into the tank with Dems/Indys). Hillary's are bad, too, but Trump's are way worse. He assures high minority turnout for Hillary, which otherwise would have been a concern for her.

His only chance to win is if there is a major economic meltdown or terrorist attack before the election. Even then, it's not assured.

Absolutely, completely not true - his favorables went from 15/76 to 39/59. His favorables were so bad that Nate Silver wrote him off completely.

[Devils30]

Hillary's favorables will get a modest rehabilitation when she wins the nomination and at the DNC in Philly. That's really all she'll need. Don't underestimate the problems across the board that Trump might cause the GOP that won't be apparent for another month or more.

[Virginiá]

Right now, I think it's 50/50 between a close 2012/2004 style race or a reverse 1972 with Trump winning <10 states and Hillary cracking 55% if not 60%.  Remember, Trump's on Trump's side and there is no telling what he will try in the general.  I do think he runs into trouble with his current speaking/debating style against Hillary.  It's just too easy to create a "madman beating up your grandma" narrative that would play right into her hands.  

When you say reverse-1972, do you mean for the presidential aspect, or also the other races? 1972 was, I forget the term used (I know there is one!), a "silent landslide" or something. Republicans only gained 12 seats, and lost 2 Senate seats, despite Nixon winning one of the largest landslides in history. I don't think it's possible these days to win that big and not bring with you a massive wave of downballot wins for your party, on account of the lack of ticket splitting these days.

I would have to say though, that if Hillary got even 54%+, it's hard to see that not flipping Congress entirely. Not to mention the disaster for Republicans in state races.

[Kingpoleon]

If there's one candidate who is tailor-made for Trump to beat, it's Hillary Clinton. Untrustworthy, ultra-establishment politician with a lengthy record to defend. He's already brutally and repeatedly demolished one establishment dynastic candidate in this cycle.

That said, I see two problems:
1) Working-class whites might be able to make up for haemorrhaging latino votes. But I don't know if they can *also* compensate for wealthier, more educated suburban whites abandoning the GOP.

2) Hillary's a woman. I don't think he can bully her in the same way he has done to Bush/Rubio/Cruz.

[bballrox4717]

Guys, no one has run a serious ad campaign against Trump since he's gotten into the race because they're all scared to alienate his supporters.

Hillary will not hold back one bit and her campaign team will absolutely tear Trump to pieces over the air. Not to mention, Trump is going to have to spend a lot of political goodwill to earn the support of conservatives that loathe him almost as much as Hillary for his attacks on Cruz and his inconsistencies, as well as Bush style neoconservatives who consider him a national security threat. The Democratic race is much tamer, and Sanders will likely give his full throated endorsement to Hillary when he loses.

Trump might have a real shot if he can win the nomination by the end of March and if Sanders can drag out the race enough where it starts to get really nasty. He could consolidate the GOP in time in that situation, but if Cruz and Rubio can prevent Trump from winning it before the convention, it'll be  a McGovern/Goldwater repeat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The very best scenario for Clinton is the 2012 map, fall back scenario is the 272-266 map, which it appears most likelt since Castro is heavily being vetted, for Veep.
.
But, the 2012 election was before the sequester cuts

[Virginiá]

Guys, no one has run a serious ad campaign against Trump since he's gotten into the race because they're all scared to alienate his supporters.

Hillary will not hold back one bit and her campaign team will absolutely tear Trump to pieces over the air. Not to mention, Trump is going to have to spend a lot of political goodwill to earn the support of conservatives that loathe him almost as much as Hillary for his attacks on Cruz and his inconsistencies, as well as Bush style neoconservatives who consider him a national security threat. The Democratic race is much tamer, and Sanders will likely give his full throated endorsement to Hillary when he loses.

Trump might have a real shot if he can win the nomination by the end of March and if Sanders can drag out the race enough where it starts to get really nasty. He could consolidate the GOP in time in that situation, but if Cruz and Rubio can prevent Trump from winning it before the convention, it'll be  a McGovern/Goldwater repeat.

I think something people don't often think about is the money issue. Trump says he's self-funding, but does anyone really believe he will begin liquidating his assets to fuel his campaign? It will take many hundreds of millions, likely far beyond the amount of cash-on-hand he has. I can't see him doing this if he even remotely thinks he could lose. I get that he's been cheap in the primary probably to save money, seeing as he doesn't need to spend to win, but in the general election, he absolutely cannot win without pouring enormous money into the states.

Further, he can't depend on big dollar support from the GOP's usual donors. A lot may see him as a wasted investment, or simply despise him so much that they won't help. Plus, a lot of that money would go to Super PACs anyway, which are being seen as a complete failure this cycle, so that doesn't help either. And if he did take their money, he throws away one of the most powerful reasons people like him: He's self-funding and not beholden to any donors. He can't really run a successful small-donor campaign either, because he's made it clear he's super rich and super successful, and asking the pooooorrlllly educated for money would really undercut that narrative.

Every single thing here points to him running a cheap, hamstrung campaign that will cost him dearly on election day. Either that, or he takes lots of special interest money to keep his campaign above water, and people finally see him for the lying fraud he really is, and thus also pays dearly on election day.

[Xing]

It is nearly impossible to tell what will happen this far out. The conventional wisdom was that the ceiling for Democrats was the Obama states + NC, while the ceiling for Republicans was the Romney states and every state Obama won by less than 7%. However, conventional wisdom has lost again and again in this election cycle. Trump probably has a fairly high ceiling, and a very low floor, so we could potentially see some strange results.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Republicans have learned nothing from the 2012 post mortem.
http://www.crnc.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Grand-Old-Party-for-a-Brand-New-Generation.pdf

Whites alone won't be enough to get Trump into to the White House. Rather than Trump expanding Romney's 2012 share of the vote, Hillary will be the one that will have the opportunity to expand on Obama's 2012 share. Outsider Trump is a YYUUGGEE longshot in the GE.

[cinyc]

Guys, no one has run a serious ad campaign against Trump since he's gotten into the race because they're all scared to alienate his supporters.

That's false. The Cruz campaign has run quite a few ads attacking Trump, in particular, in Iowa about his New York values, in South Carolina about eminent domain and temperament, and in Nevada about federal land use.  Also, some of the SuperPACs have been running anti-Trump ads, particularly Bush's Right to Rise.

[Nym90]

Guys, no one has run a serious ad campaign against Trump since he's gotten into the race because they're all scared to alienate his supporters.

Hillary will not hold back one bit and her campaign team will absolutely tear Trump to pieces over the air. Not to mention, Trump is going to have to spend a lot of political goodwill to earn the support of conservatives that loathe him almost as much as Hillary for his attacks on Cruz and his inconsistencies, as well as Bush style neoconservatives who consider him a national security threat. The Democratic race is much tamer, and Sanders will likely give his full throated endorsement to Hillary when he loses.

Trump might have a real shot if he can win the nomination by the end of March and if Sanders can drag out the race enough where it starts to get really nasty. He could consolidate the GOP in time in that situation, but if Cruz and Rubio can prevent Trump from winning it before the convention, it'll be  a McGovern/Goldwater repeat.

Also it's not as though Republicans in Congress are exactly going to be rooting for Trump. The 2018 Senate map is very favorable to the GOP, so they have to be relishing running in a midterm year against Hillary, and then running in the 2020 Prez race to beat her. Since the Dems would have held the White House for 12 years by then, the odds are decent the GOP will win, especially if there is any kind of a recession before 2020 (which there's a good chance there will be).

The biggest threat to the GOP from a Trump candidacy is that he costs them their Congressional majorities.

[Nym90]

Trump's favorable ratings with the general public are god-awful and in fact not any better than they were when he began his campaign (as any improvement with Republicans has been replaced by his ratings going into the tank with Dems/Indys). Hillary's are bad, too, but Trump's are way worse. He assures high minority turnout for Hillary, which otherwise would have been a concern for her.

His only chance to win is if there is a major economic meltdown or terrorist attack before the election. Even then, it's not assured.

Absolutely, completely not true - his favorables went from 15/76 to 39/59. His favorables were so bad that Nate Silver wrote him off completely.

I guess we must be looking at different polls. I don't remember him ever being that underwater (15/76). And the rest of my point still stands since 59 percent unfavorable makes him pretty unelectable.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Why is everyone acting like the GOP Primary is the GE audience?

Basically... calm the 'ell down. We'll see what the dynamics are once the races are settled. You'd think none of you have been through this before.

[Maxwell]

Trump's favorable ratings with the general public are god-awful and in fact not any better than they were when he began his campaign (as any improvement with Republicans has been replaced by his ratings going into the tank with Dems/Indys). Hillary's are bad, too, but Trump's are way worse. He assures high minority turnout for Hillary, which otherwise would have been a concern for her.

His only chance to win is if there is a major economic meltdown or terrorist attack before the election. Even then, it's not assured.

Absolutely, completely not true - his favorables went from 15/76 to 39/59. His favorables were so bad that Nate Silver wrote him off completely.

I guess we must be looking at different polls. I don't remember him ever being that underwater (15/76). And the rest of my point still stands since 59 percent unfavorable makes him pretty unelectable.

Unless he's facing an opponent with equally bad favorables like Hillary or someone who has largely not been defined by the GOP like Bernie Sanders.

[ag]

And who ever said it will be? Trump will be competitive in the general: very competitive. God save us all.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

2) Hillary's a woman. I don't think he can bully her in the same way he has done to Bush/Rubio/Cruz.

Carly Fiorina and Megyn Kelly though

[Maxwell]

2) Hillary's a woman. I don't think he can bully her in the same way he has done to Bush/Rubio/Cruz.

Carly Fiorina and Megyn Kelly though

well i mean, that face tho