There is not an ounce of evidence that 2016 will be a landslide election for HRC

[Matty]

Trump is a known quantity, has been for decades, and is at most losing by a few points in swing states, and around 2 points nationally.

Will he win? Probably not.

Will he lose by a margin that is in line with 2004, 2012? Likely yes

[yankeesfan]

General election polls are wrong this far out.  There are plenty of Sanders supporters lying and saying no when asked if they will support Hillary in a GE--they do this to create a narrative.  Demographics and the gender gap will make 2016 a landslide election for HRC.   

[HillOfANight]

New Mexico, Nevada, Wisconsin are not in play. Virginia and New Hampshire are leaning Dem. North Carolina is barely red.

[Mehmentum]

Lets be honest, nobody has any idea how a Trump general election campaign will play out.

[Pandaguineapig]

I keep saying that Trump will probably lose by about a 10%margin

[MT Treasurer]

Cosidering how far removed from reality this forum is, if Atlas thinks that HRC will win in a landslide, it probably means that she'll lose decisively lol.

[Yank2133]

I expect Hillary to win by 2012 margins.

[Pandaguineapig]

Cosidering how far removed from reality this forum is, if Atlas thinks that HRC will win in a landslide, it probably means that she'll lose decisively lol.

At least 5 college educated republicans or new minority voters will vote for Hillary for every documentary trump brings into the fold

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Lets be honest, nobody has any idea how a Trump general election campaign will play out.

[Asian Nazi]

Lets be honest, nobody has any idea how a Trump general election campaign will play out.

[Iosif]

Someone needs to explain to me how Trump wins with 9% approval rating from Hispanics.

[The Free North]

Hillary is far to flawed to win in a landslide, even against Trump.

[Ebsy]

The evidence is more reliable than your brother's DMR leaks.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Honestly there's no telling if Trump is the nominee. Predict it at your own peril.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Lets be honest, nobody has any idea how a Trump general election campaign will play out.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

If there's one candidate who is tailor-made for Trump to beat, it's Hillary Clinton. Untrustworthy, ultra-establishment politician with a lengthy record to defend. He's already brutally and repeatedly demolished one establishment dynastic candidate in this cycle.

That said, I see two problems:
1) Working-class whites might be able to make up for haemorrhaging latino votes. But I don't know if they can *also* compensate for wealthier, more educated suburban whites abandoning the GOP.

2) Hillary's a woman. I don't think he can bully her in the same way he has done to Bush/Rubio/Cruz.

[Ronnie]

Lets be honest, nobody has any idea how a Trump general election campaign will play out.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Quite honestly I expect a virtual repeat of 2012 in the Presidential race, and 5-7 Senate seats for the Democrats, maybe un-doing the 2014 election in the House. This is my best-case scenario for Hillary.


Anyone who says there will be landslides in this hyper-polarized country is deluded. Most people will simply vote for "their guy", if not out of support, then out of dislike for the other candidate.

[Classic Conservative]

Someone needs to explain to me how Trump wins with 9% approval rating from Hispanics.

Whites

[SillyAmerican]

Lets be honest, nobody has any idea how a Trump general election campaign will play out.

Yeah. Fun to speculate, but a wise man once told me that opinions are like a-holes: everybody's got one, and they all stink.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Quite honestly I expect a virtual repeat of 2012 in the Presidential race, and 5-7 Senate seats for the Democrats, maybe un-doing the 2014 election in the House. This is my best-case scenario for Hillary.


Anyone who says there will be landslides in this hyper-polarized country is deluded. Most people will simply vote for "their guy", if not out of support, then out of dislike for the other candidate.

[Virginiá]

Quite honestly I expect a virtual repeat of 2012 in the Presidential race, and 5-7 Senate seats for the Democrats, maybe un-doing the 2014 election in the House. This is my best-case scenario for Hillary.


Anyone who says there will be landslides in this hyper-polarized country is deluded. Most people will simply vote for "their guy", if not out of support, then out of dislike for the other candidate.

That seems like a fair expectation, though I would say that is my bottom-level performance for a Clinton v Trump election.

I just don't think it's fair to say that things are too polarized for a more lopsided win. Perhaps not much beyond a 10pt margin (which in the modern era I think would qualify as maybe a mini-landslide, relative to elections in the past generation). An electoral college landslide is probably out of the question, though. As far as downticket races, a wave could definitely form for Democrats but I don't think we'll know whether or not that will happen until much later this year.

My guess is no wave, but Trump is such a wildcard and has so many issues that it's possible under the right conditions.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

There's also this thread: "GOP donors start research of ballot access laws for independent bid"
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=230534.0

A strong social conservative third party run will give Hillary a very nice landslide, even if she's under indictment (heck, even if she's in jail).

[Maxwell]

Honestly there's no telling if Trump is the nominee. Predict it at your own peril.

[ProudModerate2]

Trump is a known quantity, has been for decades, and is at most losing by a few points in swing states, and around 2 points nationally.

Will he win? Probably not.

Will he lose by a margin that is in line with 2004, 2012? Likely yes

Most people agree that it will not be a landslide for Hillary.
But that she will win.
I think it will be more than your "2 points nationally" prediction, though.