Three reasons why McCain still has a shot...

[Moooooo]

From the DesMoines Register:

John McCain is clearly going to be a hard man to avoid this week.

To those (like me) who think that Senator McCain will be hurt by his leading role in shaping the filibuster compromise deal - particularly in places, like Iowa, where Christian conservative voters are believed to predominate - David Yepsen of the Des Moines Register has reason to think differently.

There are three reasons for Mr Yepsen's optimism (or pessimism, depending on your point of view). The first is that time is a healer. "The intense phase of the presidential caucuses of 2008 is two years away," Mr Yepsen writes. "That's plenty of time for filibuster passions to cool and other to emerge." McCain will have plenty of opportunities to burnish his conservative credentials, for example in the likey forthcoming battle to confirm a replacement for William Rehnquist in the Supreme Court.

Second, issues other than those that pre-occupy social conservatives may prove to be important. "Voters may be looking for a president who isn't as divisive as Bush," Yepsen writes (obviously drunk). "A primary objective for the GOP woll continue to be finding a presidential candidate who can win Ohio." Essentially, Mr Yepsen believes that social conservatives would rather compromise and win than pick one of their own and lose to, say, Hillary Clinton. McCain's appeal to (shudder) moderates makes him acceptable on this score.

Finally, McCain can help himself in Iowa by, you know, coming to visit once in a while. "He bypassed Iowa in 2000 but shouldn't do it again," Yepsen argues. Being not socially conservative as well as opposing ethanol subsidies, McCain should not be expected to escape Iowa alive in Yepsen's view (I'm paraphrasing quite liberally now) and this "sets him up to 'win'" the state by putting himself across as "a genuine American hero" and defying expectations.

Mr Yepsen concludes: "McCain may be just the candidate to put both sets of zealots [left and right] in their place and resurrect the common-sense American middle." By golly, is it morning in America again?

[Notre Dame rules!]

McCain has NO chance at winning the GOP nomination, perhaps the Dem nomination, but not ours.  On second thought, he has no real shot at winning the Dem nomination either.  Damn, that sucks for him!

[Ben Meyers]

For America's sake, I hope you're wrong, Notre Dame.

[TheresNoMoney]

I think McCain still has a shot at the Republican nomination, although a small shot.

The reason? The religious wingnut base is not as large as most people think.

[Secular Politico]

The Republicans should nominate McCain but they are too blinded by the religious right fanatics to even countenance such a sensible move.   

They will probably end up going for Frist instead which is good news for the Dems.

[briancw]

I hope they nominate Frist.

[Secular Politico]

I reckon they will put Frist forward, briancw.

The two so-called front-runners at the mo are moderates Giuliani and McCain but theres no way either will survive the GOP Primaries.

The backwoods men who make up their base will see to that.

Meanwhile, Santorum and Romney will be political has-beens by '08, Jeb Bush says he's not running which is probably wise considering the long overdue backlash he and his brother faced over the Schiavo case, so unless some previously non-existent savior emerges Frist will probably be nominated by default.

Thats when the fun will start for us Dems. He's such a beatable candidate its beyond funny!

Not to mention the fact that the political climate will be very hostile to Republicans in '08. The backlash against their extremist agenda is already underway. You only have to look at Bush's awful approval numbers to see that.   

[Erc]

Secular Politico:
If you do not want to be treated as an annoying troll, get yourself an avatar.


McCain still has a very small shot for '08, but he's neck-and-neck with Pataki at the moment.

And I'm sure somebody sane other than Frist will run...unlike '96, we actually have people now who have been around longer than 2 years.

[AuH2O]

McCain could win the nomination, but it's not super likely.

Actually Christian evangelicals are an enormous part of the GOP base... perhaps 40% in a strict definition and 2/3 if you include conservative Mainliners and Catholics.

When you have Pat Robertson saying he loves Guiliani and hates McCain, that tells you something, but not necessarily that Rudy has a good shot either.

[tinman64]

McCain has a shot, but that's about it.  His best chance was in 2000.  McCain will be 72 in '08.

[minionofmidas]

I reckon they will put Frist forward, briancw.

The two so-called front-runners at the mo are moderates Giuliani and McCain but theres no way either will survive the GOP Primaries.

The backwoods men who make up their base will see to that.

Meanwhile, Santorum and Romney will be political has-beens by '08, Jeb Bush says he's not running which is probably wise considering the long overdue backlash he and his brother faced over the Schiavo case, so unless some previously non-existent savior emerges Frist will probably be nominated by default.

Uh, Allen.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Uh, Allen.

Californian who moves to the south and buys a huge confederate flag. He's appearantly pretty dumb and a total wingnut.

[opebo]

I think McCain still has a shot at the Republican nomination, although a small shot.

The reason? The religious wingnut base is not as large as most people think.

Seriously?  Where do you get that idea?  From the outside it certainly looks as if the great majority of involved Republicans - the type who would vote in a primary - are theocrats.

[ATFFL]

Uh, Allen.

Californian who moves to the south and buys a huge confederate flag. He's appearantly pretty dumb and a total wingnut.

That was very redundant.  You said he was dumb when you pointed out he was from California and, clearly, anyone moving into the south is a total wingnut.

 

[Notre Dame rules!]

Uh, Allen.

Californian who moves to the south and buys a huge confederate flag. He's appearantly pretty dumb and a total wingnut.

Lots of people move around the country, so that's hardly a hindrance.  Hell, look at Hillary for Christ's sake.  As for being dumb, you're going to say that about any GOP candidate regardless of who they may be, so I put little credence in your evaluation of his intelligence.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Lots of people move around the country, so that's hardly a hindrance.  Hell, look at Hillary for Christ's sake.  As for being dumb, you're going to say that about any GOP candidate regardless of who they may be, so I put little credence in your evaluation of his intelligence.

Giulani isn't dumb.

[tarheel-leftist85]

About Guliani, Republicans know that he'd produce a repeat of 1992.  That why he's been in decline at Tradesports on 2008 Presidential contenders list.  On McCain, it's not b/c of his maverick status or perceived (and unsubstantiated) moderate record, that he'll fail to secure the nomination.  It's b/c he's not one of the good 'ol boys in the political hierarchy.  I'm starting to think Bill Frist isn't either:  I can't picture him being in my home city this wkend. at the races in his $500 shoes.  This pretty much leaves Allen.  The good thing is that he'll still be in the Senate when he runs!  Yet ANOTHER "Senator Gone"

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

About Guliani, Republicans know that he'd produce a repeat of 1992.  That why he's been in decline at Tradesports on 2008 Presidential contenders list.  On McCain, it's not b/c of his maverick status or perceived (and unsubstantiated) moderate record, that he'll fail to secure the nomination.  It's b/c he's not one of the good 'ol boys in the political hierarchy.  I'm starting to think Bill Frist isn't either:  I can't picture him being in my home city this wkend. at the races in his $500 shoes.  This pretty much leaves Allen.  The good thing is that he'll still be in the Senate when he runs!  Yet ANOTHER "Senator Gone"

Guilani seems to be the only moderate with a chance at getting the nomination, and it's not that great of a chance. I'm almost tempted to switch to the Republican party to vote for him in the primary.

[ATFFL]

About Guliani, Republicans know that he'd produce a repeat of 1992.  That why he's been in decline at Tradesports on 2008 Presidential contenders list.  On McCain, it's not b/c of his maverick status or perceived (and unsubstantiated) moderate record, that he'll fail to secure the nomination.  It's b/c he's not one of the good 'ol boys in the political hierarchy.  I'm starting to think Bill Frist isn't either:  I can't picture him being in my home city this wkend. at the races in his $500 shoes.  This pretty much leaves Allen.  The good thing is that he'll still be in the Senate when he runs!  Yet ANOTHER "Senator Gone"

Guilani seems to be the only moderate with a chance at getting the nomination, and it's not that great of a chance. I'm almost tempted to switch to the Republican party to vote for him in the primary.

Funny thing is that a lot of people on the left called him a fascist before 9-11.

BTW, that is about the only way G-man could win the Rep nomination.  If he can bring in a lot of non-traditional voters to support himin the primary, he has a shot.  If not, well, he could be a VP pick to try and bring some balance to the ticket.

[zorkpolitics]

McCain actually has a very good shot at 2008.  He has the best name recognition, he has a good favorable rating among most voters, and is perceived to be less devisive.  These characetrisitcs should give him a strong chance to win IA and NH.  He may have trouble in SC, but with NJ now an early Feb primary, he could easily win here.
Plus no one should discount how much loyalty he earned from Bush by campaigning hard in 2004 for Bush.
Finally as Hilliary becomes the concensus Democratic nominee, Republican voters, even hard conservativces, will look at electability, if McCain does well v Hilliary in polls, he could win the nomination

[opebo]

Funny thing is that a lot of people on the left called him a fascist before 9-11.

It is all relative.  The country was a lot less fascist before 9/11.

Plus no one should discount how much loyalty he earned from Bush by campaigning hard in 2004 for Bush.

Hah, Bush loyalty is a myth.

[MODU]

While I give McCain credit for years of service, he will not win the nomination of the party.  His health would overshadow everything else, and force the party to choose someone healthy enough to last 4-8 years in office.