Once more: who wins in November?

[Virginiá]

I have to say the Democrats' arrogance in this thread is quite amusing. In July 2015, a poll on this board asked people who they believe will win the Republican nomination in 2016. The results were as follows:

Sure. I admit I misjudged Trump for their primary, but that doesn't change the fact that Republican primaries have been toxic to pub chances in a general election for some time now. For people to somehow say that because a moron like Trump can sweep a Republican primary, he will have a chance in the general election is equally as foolish. Trump is a goldmine of vulnerabilities on top of his lack of knowledge of anything policy or government. He probably the most unfit candidate to have a chance at a nomination in generations.

After he wins the nomination, he will have to broaden his appeal on so many levels and it is a stretch to think he can pull that off, considering exactly how he managed to win the nomination in the first place (assuming he does of course). He is a liar, a fraud, corrupt, severely lacking in any sort of decency or morals. He's a shining example of a rogue, aspiring plutocrat who is exactly the kind of person the people say they are sick of!

So if we're arrogant, then the only thing more arrogant, I suppose, is people who think Trump will have anything but a monumental and bloody climb to any sort of general election victory. Given everything that Trump is, does, and says, people shouldn't be faulted for thinking he will be soundly rejected by the majority of the American electorate.

[Yank2133]

Why does everyone assume that Trump has a path to victory in November?

Because they are either trolling or delusional.

I mean seriously, Romney got killed by Hispanics in 2012 and Trump is far more toxic then Mitt ever was when it comes to Hispanics.

I know people on here hate Hillary, but you can't win an election with the numbers he has when it comes to Hispanics.

[IceSpear]

Trump. He's actually defined the election in a way that Clinton hasn't.

Well Clinton has defined the election as being the only major candidate to ever be under FBI investigation while they are running for President.

Other than Rick Perry?

That wasn't the FBI, and everyone knows how ridiculous that investigation was!

So the indicted Rick Perry is presumed innocent, but the non indicted Hillary Clinton is presumed guilty. What a fair and balanced media we have.

[SillyAmerican]

Sure, if Trump doesn't change his style, he's not winning this election. That's exactly the reason why he will change it. He's already running as the most moderate Republican in this race. (Did you hear any other Republicans say they would refuse to take sides in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or praise Planned Parenthood for helping women). Like it or not, Trump is more electable than Cruz or Rubio. And I say that as a Chafee/Kasich supporter lol. Do I find ironic Trump supporters annoying as heck? Yes. Do I want Trump to win the nomination? No, I think Kasich would have a better shot. But do I think the election will be anything other than a Tossup? No. Trump's favorables are abysmal, but it's not as if Clinton is viewed much more favorably than he is. And both their numbers will improve during the general election campaign, mark my words."He is a liar, a fraud, corrupt, severely lacking in any sort of decency or morals." Probably true. But you could use all those words to describe Clinton as well. That being said, I'd say Clinton would be favored to win the general if it was held today (maybe the Obama 2012 map minus FL/OH/IA or CO). No way she is going to beat him by more than 7 points, though. She also won't have any coattails in the Senate, because, well... coattails are mostly a myth. Republicans won't stay at home in a Clinton vs Trump race, and neither will Democrats. 

Excellent summary.

I too wish Governor Kasich was doing better, as he'd do better in a GE against Clinton. That said, TN is right: Trump is a very moderate Republican candidate, and should be able to garner support from independent voters and swayable Democrats. A GE with Clinton and Trump starts out being roughly a tossup, and I think Trump is smart enough to know what to do to win over swing states. It will be a very interesting November...