Once more: who wins in November?

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

I have a feeling this debate will affect all the candidates numbers, not just for the primaries but in the general election. This is the first time I seen Donald Trump get flustered in a debate. He was clearly getting nervous when Rubio was going after him.

[MT Treasurer]

It will be close, but my guess is Trump. He and Kasich are the most electable GOP candidates.

[Pyro]

If Clinton can nab that line from Rubio, "He only says 5 things," then she can win.

[Pandaguineapig]

Why does everyone assume that Trump has a path to victory in November?

[Virginiá]

I have a feeling this debate will affect all the candidates numbers, not just for the primaries but in the general election. This is the first time I seen Donald Trump get flustered in a debate. He was clearly getting nervous when Rubio was going after him.

Not that I think this debate changes anything for November, but I think it gives a small preview of what things Trump will have to deal with. Notably his lack of knowledge on...everything? He'll have to appeal to more than just Republican primary voters, at which point he'll look stupid as hell when he can't say anything but "the lines!" and "I'LL HIRE THE BEST"

However, not to say Hillary won't be skewered by Trump, either. My prediction remains: Trump loses by at least McCain numbers, but likely more.

[Ronnie]

I change my mind almost every day, but for now, I believe Trump will be our next president.   Tonight demonstrated that he will need a lot of debate prep against Hillary, though.

[Sir Mohamed]

Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton.

The Trumpster gets creamed.

[PPT Spiral]

Trump. He's actually defined the election in a way that Clinton hasn't.

[Inmate Trump]

Trump. He's actually defined the election in a way that Clinton hasn't.

By making it about those pesky Mexican rapists, and other brown people...and building a totally feasible wall and magically forcing another nation to pay for it.

We will be bored from always winning. Heil Trump!

[Leinad]

Clinton. Not that I'm happy about that--I'd rather almost anyone over her. But I try to stay unbiased in my analysis.

Trump will struggle to get the conservative base to turn out, and will also struggle with the establishment. Not to mention he's a gold mine of pre-written attack ads for the Clinton campaign. She's a deeply flawed candidate, but so is he. Trump is everything Democrats have been telling people is evil about Republicans--a one-percenter with a history of sexist and racist comments.

Now, I think Trump can bring in voters other Republicans can't. He can use his anti-Iraq War stance to get anti-war Democrats vs. Hillary, and use his capitalist image to get moderate Democrats against the "socialist" Bernie, if he wins.

But I don't think it will be enough to make up for his weaknesses.

[Phony Moderate]

TRUMP, by a similar margin to Obama 2012.

[Classic Conservative]

Trump. He's actually defined the election in a way that Clinton hasn't.

Well Clinton has defined the election as being the only major candidate to ever be under FBI investigation while they are running for President.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Trump. He's actually defined the election in a way that Clinton hasn't.

Well Clinton has defined the election as being the only major candidate to ever be under FBI investigation while they are running for President.

That's not true. Hoover regularly put commie candidates like Adlai Stevenson or George McGoven under suveillance.

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1999-05-30/news/9905300183_1_fbi-files-hoover-governor-stevenson

http://www.argusleader.com/story/news/2015/07/26/fbi-mined-secrets-mcgoverns-past/30689729/

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I'm more and more beggining to think it's going to be Trump

[windjammer]

Trump isnt going to win lol.

Say whatever you want about Clinton, she's a skillful debater and he's not going to dominate her during the debates like he did with Marco boring rubio.

[RR1997]

It will be close, but my guess is Trump. He and Kasich are the most electable GOP candidates.

Trump. He's actually defined the election in a way that Clinton hasn't.

TRUMP, by a similar margin to Obama 2012.

No. I really hope you guys are joking.

Clinton, and it won't even be close. Clinton is going to trump TRUMP. Clinton is at the
very least going to win by 6 points. Clinton is an absolutely wonderful debater. Trump is an empty-suit and Hillary could easily point this out at the debate. Trump has by far the lowest approval ratings of any candidate running. Trump is absolutely hated by Democrats, independents, and 2/3 of Republicans. He is going to make incredibly small gains with working-class whites, but this will easily be made up by Asians and Hispanics turning out at record levels. Even whites are going to swing against Trump. Religious, wealthy, educated, liberal, conservative, and young whites all hate Trump. A lot of religious/wealthy/conservative Republicans are going to stay home. The problem with Trump is that he appeals to such a small group of people. 2/3 of the Republicans hate him. Only a plurality of the GOP likes him, and all you need is a plurality to win the primaries. Trump consistently loses to Hillary in the polls, and Hillary is a great debater, so her lead should increase as the campaign season goes on. Trump is not the most electable candidate. He does worse against Hillary than any other GOP candidate. Even Cruz does better than him. Trump has a 10% chance of winning the GE, and that's being generous.

[Torie]

The dissembling ice queen.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Trump won't win the primary

But, the Republican nominee will win any of the 10 potential matchups comfortably.

[Gass3268]

Trump won't win the primary

But, the Republican nominee will win any of the 10 potential matchups comfortably.

Wrong on both counts.

[MK]

Trump has to get up to date on depth policy wise.  Hes savy enough to think quick on his feet .    But once he gets the nomination hes needs to pick kasich and channel his policies.

Just think if kasich had Trumps swagger  hed be unstoppable.

[Eraserhead]

Trump will win.

[7,052,770]

Trump. He's actually defined the election in a way that Clinton hasn't.

Well Clinton has defined the election as being the only major candidate to ever be under FBI investigation while they are running for President.

Other than Rick Perry?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Trump. He's actually defined the election in a way that Clinton hasn't.

Well Clinton has defined the election as being the only major candidate to ever be under FBI investigation while they are running for President.

Other than Rick Perry?

That wasn't the FBI, and everyone knows how ridiculous that investigation was!

[Krago]

Trump. He's actually defined the election in a way that Clinton hasn't.

Well Clinton has defined the election as being the only major candidate to ever be under FBI investigation while they are running for President.

Other than Rick Perry?

That wasn't the FBI, and everyone knows how ridiculous that investigation was!

Almost as ridiculous as Bill Clinton's impeachment?

[MT Treasurer]

I have to say the Democrats' arrogance in this thread is quite amusing. In July 2015, a poll on this board asked people who they believe will win the Republican nomination in 2016. The results were as follows:



For those of you who can't see the picture:

Jeb Bush 43 votes (54.4%)
Scott Walker 6 votes (7.6%)
Ted Cruz 1 vote (1.3%)
John Kasich 6 votes (7.6%)
Marco Rubio 17 votes (21.5%)
Donald Trump 0 votes (0.00%)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=215385.0

So, take Atlas #analysis with a grain of salt. People have been underestimating Trump since day one and I don't expect that to change during the general election campaign.