WI - Marquette University: Sanders +1, Trump +10
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December 09, 2021, 05:32:22 AM

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  WI - Marquette University: Sanders +1, Trump +10
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Author Topic: WI - Marquette University: Sanders +1, Trump +10  (Read 1354 times)
Gass3268
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« on: February 25, 2016, 01:26:41 PM »

Democratic Primary
Sanders 44%
Clinton 43%

Republican Primary
Trump 30%
Rubio 20%
Cruz 19%
Kasich 8%
Carson 8%

Full poll, in pdf form, to be posted soon
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1 on: February 25, 2016, 01:30:30 PM »

According to 538, in a tied race nationally, Sanders should be leading by 18 in Wisconsin. So, in that context, these are bad numbers for Sanders.
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Holmes
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« Reply #2 on: February 25, 2016, 01:36:46 PM »

+1? That's it?
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Skye
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« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2016, 01:37:50 PM »

Still, winning doesn't hurt. Especially for someone in his position.
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Holmes
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« Reply #4 on: February 25, 2016, 01:41:29 PM »

Still, winning doesn't hurt. Especially for someone in his position.

Wisconsin is a perfect state to get a healthy delegate lead over Clinton. That wouldn't happen in this scenario.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: February 25, 2016, 01:46:58 PM »

We are also like month and half from the race. Still a ton of time for anything to happen for either side.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #6 on: February 25, 2016, 01:47:05 PM »

Obama beat Hillary in Wisconsin 58-41. He carried every CD, and Carried the 2nd and 4th by over 60%. No way in this scenario does Sanders win CD4 (MKE) and probably loses CD1, potentially only has a clear advantage in CD2.

Obama dominated in Madison and Milwaukee... this time, they will split.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: February 25, 2016, 01:50:34 PM »

Toss up in Bernie country! Wonderful news.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #8 on: February 25, 2016, 01:55:53 PM »

This might give us an indication of how Minnesota will go down.  Unfortunately, caucuses are stupid.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #9 on: February 25, 2016, 02:03:35 PM »


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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: February 25, 2016, 02:04:35 PM »

This might give us an indication of how Minnesota will go down.  Unfortunately, caucuses are stupid.

I have a feeling MN likes Bernie more than WI. Plus, not only is it a caucus, it's completely open. I fully expect him to dominate there.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #11 on: February 25, 2016, 02:10:15 PM »

This might give us an indication of how Minnesota will go down.  Unfortunately, caucuses are stupid.

I have a feeling MN likes Bernie more than WI. Plus, not only is it a caucus, it's completely open. I fully expect him to dominate there.

Isn't Iowa an open caucus? Also, while it's not exactly huge, Minnesota has a black population larger than Iowa, and it's also much more urban... I'm not saying Sanders will lose, but he probably won't win 66-33 like Obama did. He almost certainly won't get 70% in Hennepin County.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #12 on: February 25, 2016, 02:40:37 PM »

Interestingly enough, Republicans would be less uncomfortable with Sanders (66%) than with Clinton (81%) as president...

Also Net Favorabilities Among Candidates with People in their Party:

Democrats:
Clinton 55
Sanders 51

Republicans:
Rubio 47
Cruz 46
Kasich 9
Trump 0

The way Sanders makes up for his favorability and crushes in the national polls is because he does far better than Clinton with Republicans and independents. Kasich has the highest net favorability of any Republican amongst Democrats at -4.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #13 on: February 25, 2016, 02:45:34 PM »

Pretty sure this is the first time that Sanders has actually had any kind of lead in a Wisconsin poll, so I'll take it for now.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #14 on: February 25, 2016, 03:05:17 PM »


The way Sanders makes up for his favorability and crushes in the national polls is because he does far better than Clinton with Republicans and independents. Kasich has the highest net favorability of any Republican amongst Democrats at -4.

This is why those head to head polls are useless... the GOP has had 30 years to convince themselves that Hillary is bad... None of them know Sanders, but believe me, they won't like him any more than her when they're through with him. We have a sense of where her floor is... we don't know where his is. It could be a few points better, or 10 points worse.
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