How does the GOP win young voters once baby boomers and gen-x are gone?

[5280]

How does the GOP win young voters once baby boomers and gen-x are gone in 30-40 years? It seems like the GOP cannot attract a large enough voting pool of young voters such as Millenials or Generation Z.

[Virginiá]

There is probably no reasonable way to answer that question. We have no way of knowing what the values/views of young people will be in 30-40 years. Look how different the Millennial generation is from their parents.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

There is some evidence that Millenials born in the mid-1990s are far less Democratic than those born in the 1980s and early 1990s.

This poll is nearly 2 years old, but it does reflect that voters born after 1991 will not have the best memories of the GWB Presidency and 2008 election (going along with the "Who was President when you were 18?" thing) are probably returning to normalcy in terms of partisan identification.

Of course, a lot has changed since April of 2014.

[SingingAnalyst]

There is some evidence that Millenials born in the mid-1990s are far less Democratic than those born in the 1980s and early 1990s.

This poll is nearly 2 years old, but it does reflect that voters born after 1991 will not have the best memories of the GWB Presidency and 2008 election (going along with the "Who was President when you were 18?" thing) are probably returning to normalcy in terms of partisan identification.

Of course, a lot has changed since April of 2014.

That is some, albeit scant, evidence. 18-20 year olds are probably more like their (more Republican) parents than 23-24 year olds. Back in 1972, while McGovern won college students overall, he lost freshmen 56%-40%. Reagan was swept into office in 1980 with only 41% support from voters under 30 (Carter had 47%). Four years later, however, Reagan won 18-29 year olds with 60%. It will take someone who communicates well and gets results.

[Virginiá]

That is some, albeit scant, evidence. 18-20 year olds are probably more like their (more Republican) parents than 23-24 year olds. Back in 1972, while McGovern won college students overall, he lost freshmen 56%-40%. Reagan was swept into office in 1980 with only 41% support from voters under 30 (Carter had 47%). Four years later, however, Reagan won 18-29 year olds with 60%. It will take someone who communicates well and gets results.

This is what I've been thinking about. Obama did lose the very youngest in 2012 by somewhat decent margins, but he had 2 major issues that enabled that:

• Passed PPACA during an economic crisis instead of putting all his political capital into economic-related proposals (labor laws, infrastructure investment, etc). Aside from the stimulus, Democrats wasted the massive amount of power they had and later paid for it, as they essentially handed Republicans a powerful tool to beat them with for the next 6 years
• No matter what, without a nearly instantaneous recovery, Obama/Democrats were always going to get hit in 2010/2012, as the recession began in earnest after Obama took office, so a lot of blame went to them.

However, this doesn't mean that those 18-20 year olds will always have that little support of Democrats. The problem facing Republicans with Millennials and possibly GenY/Z/whatever is that even with less effective or unappealing Democratic presidential candidates, it doesn't change the fact that the GOP platform is not something that really appeals to Millennials the same way the Democratic platform does. As long as it remains this way, Democrats will almost always do well with this generation and will have more opportunities to win back any Millennials that voted against them, such as in 2012/2014.

It's kind of similar to Nixon-Reagan era, where Nixon did turn off a lot of young people with his hijinks, but that didn't drive future young people away forever, despite how badly Nixon tarnished the Republican brand. Reagan came along and eventually locked in their support for a long time. That was because those kids grew up with ideals that simply were not in line with the Democratic party of that era. An example now might be that even if Clinton won and got lackluster approval/votes from the youngest voters, that doesn't mean Republicans are favored from then on. Kind of like how some young adults love Sanders right now, despite voting against Obama in 2012.

TL;DR Republicans need to reformulate their agenda in a way that actually appeals broadly to young people, instead of once again focusing almost solely on their older white voters (as they have for so many years)

[SingingAnalyst]

That is some, albeit scant, evidence. 18-20 year olds are probably more like their (more Republican) parents than 23-24 year olds. Back in 1972, while McGovern won college students overall, he lost freshmen 56%-40%. Reagan was swept into office in 1980 with only 41% support from voters under 30 (Carter had 47%). Four years later, however, Reagan won 18-29 year olds with 60%. It will take someone who communicates well and gets results.

This is what I've been thinking about. Obama did lose the very youngest in 2012 by somewhat decent margins, but he had 2 major issues that enabled that:

• Passed PPACA during an economic crisis instead of putting all his political capital into economic-related proposals (labor laws, infrastructure investment, etc). Aside from the stimulus, Democrats wasted the massive amount of power they had and later paid for it, as they essentially handed Republicans a powerful tool to beat them with for the next 6 years
• No matter what, without a nearly instantaneous recovery, Obama/Democrats were always going to get hit in 2010/2012, as the recession began in earnest after Obama took office, so a lot of blame went to them.

However, this doesn't mean that those 18-20 year olds will always have that little support of Democrats. The problem facing Republicans with Millennials and possibly GenY/Z/whatever is that even with less effective or unappealing Democratic presidential candidates, it doesn't change the fact that the GOP platform is not something that really appeals to Millennials the same way the Democratic platform does. As long as it remains this way, Democrats will almost always do well with this generation and will have more opportunities to win back any Millennials that voted against them, such as in 2012/2014.

It's kind of similar to Nixon-Reagan era, where Nixon did turn off a lot of young people with his hijinks, but that didn't drive future young people away forever, despite how badly Nixon tarnished the Republican brand. Reagan came along and eventually locked in their support for a long time. That was because those kids grew up with ideals that simply were not in line with the Democratic party of that era. An example now might be that even if Clinton won and got lackluster approval/votes from the youngest voters, that doesn't mean Republicans are favored from then on. Kind of like how some young adults love Sanders right now, despite voting against Obama in 2012.

TL;DR Republicans need to reformulate their agenda in a way that actually appeals broadly to young people, instead of once again focusing almost solely on their older white voters (as they have for so many years)

Did Obama lose the youngest voters? I thought he won them 60-37. He did however lose white youth to Romney, but only 49-48.

Any GOP candidate that wants to turn back the clock on same-sex marriage (think Ted Cruz) is doomed among young voters. The GOP will have to face reality on this issue, just as they did once upon a time with social security, among other issues.

[Virginiá]

Did Obama lose the youngest voters? I thought he won them 60-37. He did however lose white youth to Romney, but only 49-48.

Any GOP candidate that wants to turn back the clock on same-sex marriage (think Ted Cruz) is doomed among young voters. The GOP will have to face reality on this issue, just as they did once upon a time with social security, among other issues.

As a whole, yes, Obama won Millennials overwhelmingly. However, in 2012, due to the factors I listed, he did lose the very youngest voters, 18 - 20 year olds. 18yr olds: 57% Romney, 19yr: 59%, 20yr: 54%.

However, as I was saying, their support for Romney won't necessarily translate into Republican-leanings for life, unless they keep voting that way for the next 5-10 years. How the Republican party behaves, what their agenda is, and how well the next 1-2 presidents perform will likely determine their leanings. Though, I think it's safe to say that at least 18 and 19 year olds who came of age in 2011/2012 will be less Democratic than kids who came of age in 2006-2009.

Not sure which of the links in this WP story about this have those results, but it's in there somewhere:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/03/10/democrats-have-a-young-people-problem-too/

[youngohioan216]

I feel like in the future as the younger generations take over we'll have a more leftist Democratic party and a more centrist Republican party. The Democrats will be a Sanders-style democratic socialist party and the Republican mainstream will accept gay marriage and marijuana legalization and have a less hawkish foreign policy.

[Figueira]

Did Obama lose the youngest voters? I thought he won them 60-37. He did however lose white youth to Romney, but only 49-48.

Any GOP candidate that wants to turn back the clock on same-sex marriage (think Ted Cruz) is doomed among young voters. The GOP will have to face reality on this issue, just as they did once upon a time with social security, among other issues.

As a whole, yes, Obama won Millennials overwhelmingly. However, in 2012, due to the factors I listed, he did lose the very youngest voters, 18 - 20 year olds. 18yr olds: 57% Romney, 19yr: 59%, 20yr: 54%.

I don't think the sample size was very big there.

Anyway, the parties will have to evolve as the population evolves.

[sg0508]

Most of the Millenials, myself included identify "Clinton" as their/our president growing up.  The economy (his doing or not) was fantastic, there were jobs everywhere, we were at peace abroad, and none of us really cared about Lewinskygate. The mid-terms of '98 proved most Americans didn't care all that much either.  Then....we had George Bush.  Enough said.  

The baby votes in 2012 are startling though. Most of our parents identified with Ike and JFK, and maybe some LBJ, who they hated by the end of his full term.  That's how most middle class white became moderate republicans until the 90s...at least I think?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Not to worry, there's an up-and-coming generation of racist Alt-Right nasties who chant "TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP" whenever they hear an opinion they don't like.

[James Bond 007]

Our biggest problem is that we're not used to talking to young people.  It's just a matter of getting out there and speaking to them in ways they can understand.  The same could be said about minorities, but would take more work. In our favor is that young voters under 25 don't vote in very impressive numbers.

[sg0508]

Our biggest problem is that we're not used to talking to young people.  It's just a matter of getting out there and speaking to them in ways they can understand.  The same could be said about minorities, but would take more work. In our favor is that young voters under 25 don't vote in very impressive numbers.

Your party and formerly mine, is talking to young people with their constant rhetoric.  Do you think the spectacle that the GOP has become in these debates and particularly, the Cruz-type is going to attract younger voters to the Republicans?

[SingingAnalyst]

Our biggest problem is that we're not used to talking to young people.  It's just a matter of getting out there and speaking to them in ways they can understand.  The same could be said about minorities, but would take more work. In our favor is that young voters under 25 don't vote in very impressive numbers.

Minorities, and young people, will vote for Republican politicians who have earned their vote. Looking back, Gov. Milliken (R-MI) went from about 9% of the Black Detroit vote in 1974 to about 25% in 1978. How? By listening. Today's GOP can do the same thing with minorities and the young, but it will take more than strident criticism of the welfare state and popular culture, two stands that have alienated the GOP from these groups.

[SillyAmerican]

The question needs to be this: How do candidates win voter support? This cycle, new voters are getting excited by the messages being offered by Trump and Sanders. Why? Because they are the candidates that have managed to convince we voters that they're willing to work towards our best interest. You can take issue over the validity of their arguments/promises, but it's fair to say that each has managed to tap into something that the other candidates in both the Republican and Democratic parties have failed to convince anyone of, and that is the idea that they're actually willing to listen! The reason why so many people don't bother to actually cast a ballot? It's because they're convinced that their vote isn't going to make the least bit of difference, because nobody cares what they think anyway. And that's the sad, unspoken truth. Convince a voter that you're willing to actually listen to them, that you're actually willing to work to make their life better, and you've changed the game.

[Virginiá]

Minorities, and young people, will vote for Republican politicians who have earned their vote. Looking back, Gov. Milliken (R-MI) went from about 9% of the Black Detroit vote in 1974 to about 25% in 1978. How? By listening. Today's GOP can do the same thing with minorities and the young, but it will take more than strident criticism of the welfare state and popular culture, two stands that have alienated the GOP from these groups.

You're right, but the party needs to change in response to what they are listening to as well. They can't just change the way they convey their message, which will help them but would be limited. There are policy issues at play here as well. Repackaging the same ideas only takes you so far, as the Democrats learned in the 70s/80s/90s.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think the older Generation then switches more to the GOP. Younger people are always/in most cases more liberal.

[Leinad]

Regardless of anything else, they need to shut up about gay marriage. That's something that any rational person realizes is silly to oppose--even if you don't like it, why do you care?

Not sure if they need to take a fully socially liberal/libertarian stance. But they should secularize it. Opposition to abortion, for example, doesn't have to be based on evangelical Christianity to make sense. I would argue that the reason it's still legal is because they base their rhetoric on religion so much (and because "pro-life" sounds super-hypocritical if you're still in favor of the death penalty and reckless wars). While some young people are religious, many of us aren't and most of us that are don't base our politics on it. So appealing to evangelical voters will have less and less of an effect on elections, if trends continue. Which means some positions will need to be abandoned altogether, while others will just need a rhetorical overhaul to appeal to the more secular youth.

One interesting thing about young voters is that they don't like "politics as usual." They want change, and they don't care for pragmatism, moderation, or political expediency. My proof for that theory is how well people like Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders have done with young voters (which is funny, because conventional wisdom says that younger candidates do better with young voters, but it's two guys over 70 exciting the youth instead, while the youngster Rubio did poorly with his boring campaign that promised a fresh start to a century that is already about 1/6th of the way over). Both Paul and Sanders are considered outside of the mainstream to older voters, yet are cult-heroes in their respective anti-establishment ideological niches. Older voters prefer the Clintons and Romneys of the world, the ones who keep the trains running on time with a steady hand, while we prefer REVOLUTION!

Not that young people will stay that way as they get older, but it's how they seem to be now.

[Virginiá]

I think the older Generation then switches more to the GOP. Younger people are always/in most cases more liberal.

Not really. Older people now are more conservative because the times they grew up in were led by successful conservative leaders. People were grew up under FDR voted more Democratic their entire life, and kids who were up under Clinton's 2nd term and Bush/Obama have already been voting consistently more Democratic. The Silent Generation under Eisenhower has always been more conservative. People who grew up under Reagan have always voted more heavily Republican. Even Reagan got upwards of 60% of the youth vote in 1984.

http://www.people-press.org/2011/11/03/section-1-how-generations-have-changed/
http://www.people-press.org/2011/11/03/section-2-generations-and-the-2012-election/

Simply put, maybe it seems like people "turn conservative" as they age, but if this was the 1950s, people would be saying the youth is "always more Republican" and that when they age, they turn "more liberal", because a bulk of the older people were Democratic and a lot were New Dealers.

[Gass3268]

I think the older Generation then switches more to the GOP. Younger people are always/in most cases more liberal.

Not really. Older people now are more conservative because the times they grew up in were led by successful conservative leaders. People were grew up under FDR voted more Democratic their entire life, and kids who were up under Clinton's 2nd term and Bush/Obama have already been voting consistently more Democratic. The Silent Generation under Eisenhower has always been more conservative. People who grew up under Reagan have always voted more heavily Republican. Even Reagan got upwards of 60% of the youth vote in 1984.

http://www.people-press.org/2011/11/03/section-1-how-generations-have-changed/
http://www.people-press.org/2011/11/03/section-2-generations-and-the-2012-election/

Simply put, maybe it seems like people "turn conservative" as they age, but if this was the 1950s, people would be saying the youth is "always more Republican" and that when they age, they turn "more liberal", because a bulk of the older people were Democratic and a lot were New Dealers.

There has been research that once generation votes for the same party 3 times in a row, they lock-in their support to that party for the rest of their lives (barring massive wave elections). Also just a gut feeling, but I imagine this whole Trump phenomenon isn't helping the GOP with future voters. 

[Virginiá]

There has been research that once generation votes for the same party 3 times in a row, they lock-in their support to that party for the rest of their lives (barring massive wave elections).

Yes, though I don't think it is as static as that. 3 times in a row I think is only said because it reflects a long period of time. If we're talking 3 presidential elections, that's 12 years, and if all elections, it's 6 years. If a person finds common ground for 12 years with the same party during their formative years, then they are likely to stick with them.

The reason I think that it is mentioned is that young adults political positions are more malleable through their teens/20s. The older a young adult gets, the less likely they are to change their views on certain things or their allegiance to their party. So when a person votes 3 times for the same party, it's a validation tested by time that they see that party as best representing them, given the current choices. Eventually that comes to stick as people do sort of get stuck in their ways. This same dynamic applies to a lot of other things.

However, it's not impossible to break this cycle. Major events (Great Depression, for instance) can reset this behavior and rapidly change party allegiances. These types of situations are far rarer though.

[indietraveler]

1. They have to at least be more centrist on social issues. A significant amount of young republicans support gay marriage. This seems to be the big one, but I think becoming more pot friendly and less world police-like will help as well.

2. At least try to appeal to minorities? This has to be a no brainer. With the population becoming more diverse, the GOP won't be winning much if it's not open to others.

Overall, they will need to become more moderate. If the dems keep going to the left and if the GOP goes more towards the middle they could present themselves as the party of reason.

While interesting to talk about, I always thought the generation groups expand too many years to really get a good general sense of how a generation votes. Young millennials grew up in a completely different setting from older members of the group. Personally, I consider Clinton my childhood years, Bush my teen years (9/11 shaped my outlook on so many things that younger kids didn't experience because they were too young) and Obama my young adult years.
 

[SingingAnalyst]

1. They have to at least be more centrist on social issues. A significant amount of young republicans support gay marriage. This seems to be the big one, but I think becoming more pot friendly and less world police-like will help as well.

2. At least try to appeal to minorities? This has to be a no brainer. With the population becoming more diverse, the GOP won't be winning much if it's not open to others.

Overall, they will need to become more moderate. If the dems keep going to the left and if the GOP goes more towards the middle they could present themselves as the party of reason.

While interesting to talk about, I always thought the generation groups expand too many years to really get a good general sense of how a generation votes. Young millennials grew up in a completely different setting from older members of the group. Personally, I consider Clinton my childhood years, Bush my teen years (9/11 shaped my outlook on so many things that younger kids didn't experience because they were too young) and Obama my young adult years.
 

indietraveler, do you think Trump is helping or hurting the image of the GOP in your age group? Or is it hard to say?

[indietraveler]

1. They have to at least be more centrist on social issues. A significant amount of young republicans support gay marriage. This seems to be the big one, but I think becoming more pot friendly and less world police-like will help as well.

2. At least try to appeal to minorities? This has to be a no brainer. With the population becoming more diverse, the GOP won't be winning much if it's not open to others.

Overall, they will need to become more moderate. If the dems keep going to the left and if the GOP goes more towards the middle they could present themselves as the party of reason.

While interesting to talk about, I always thought the generation groups expand too many years to really get a good general sense of how a generation votes. Young millennials grew up in a completely different setting from older members of the group. Personally, I consider Clinton my childhood years, Bush my teen years (9/11 shaped my outlook on so many things that younger kids didn't experience because they were too young) and Obama my young adult years.
 

indietraveler, do you think Trump is helping or hurting the image of the GOP in your age group? Or is it hard to say?

Hurting right now, but it's still hard to say long term. If Trump loses the nomination or the GE and he becomes an after thought and the GOP goes back to how it was, I think things go back to being somewhat normal.

If Trump has a lasting impact, win or lose, and some of his rhetoric remains within the GOP, I think the GOP will have a hard time reaching the White House anytime soon.