Dems, GA and NC
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  Dems, GA and NC		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Do the Dems have a chance of picking up GA and/or NC in 2016?
#1
Yes, both		  
#2
Yes, both, but only if the GOP nominates a weak candidate		  
#3
Yes, but only NC not GA		  
#4
Yes, but only NC not GA and only if GOP nominates a weak candidate		  
#5
No		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 50

Author Topic: Dems, GA and NC  (Read 1331 times)
SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« on: February 23, 2016, 12:36:50 PM »
Do the Dems have more than an outside chance of winning GA and/or NC in 2016?
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #1 on: February 23, 2016, 12:42:06 PM »
They got really close with NC in 2008 and 2012. 23% black in 2012 per exit polls.

Georgia was not as close, and that was with the help of about 30% black vote that will likely be lower without Obama.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_clinton-5538.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ga/georgia_trump_vs_clinton-5741.html

NC looks within reach, GA only if Trump was third party.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #2 on: February 23, 2016, 01:29:23 PM »
A fairly decent chance in North Carolina, only a slight chance in Georgia.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: February 23, 2016, 01:42:38 PM »
Short of a landslide, only North Carolina is plausible.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: February 23, 2016, 01:44:50 PM »
GA is not that much more Republican than NC. The only way they win NC is if Trump implodes, and in that case GA flips, too.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #5 on: February 23, 2016, 01:52:37 PM »
Yes, but only NC not GA.

Neither will matter much in a razor thin election. Both are possible if it is a landslide.
Neither are really worth fighting for compared to the four critical states: OH,CO,VA,FL.
NC has one less electoral vote than GA, but since it so much easier to win, that one
electoral vote is somewhat irrelevant.
I don't think the Republican has much of a chance in a razor thin election to win much
beyond the big four. If they are the only flippable states, they would all have to flip for
a Republican victory, and they are more tossups than states like NV an IA.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #6 on: February 23, 2016, 02:05:21 PM »
http://cookpolitical.com/story/8608

It seems like NC has more white college educated voters, while OH has less, and OH has more non college educated whites that may be more attracted to Trump's message. Not a lot of recent polls to determine though.
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Holmes
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« Reply #7 on: February 23, 2016, 02:09:05 PM »
Only North Carolina. In coming years it'll become more Democratic than Ohio along with Virginia. Hard to see Democrats making inroads in Georgia even with favorable demographic shifts.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #8 on: February 23, 2016, 02:43:36 PM »
NC of course. GA only with a PV of at least 52%. Won't happen unless Rafael or Ben are the GOP nominees.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #9 on: February 23, 2016, 03:27:34 PM »
Clinton would beat Trump and Cruz in NC. GA is probably not achievable this cycle.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #10 on: February 23, 2016, 04:01:40 PM »
Option 4.
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