Is Kasich basically playing chicken with Rubio?

[Lyin' Steve]

Let's get the facts.

Kasich knows if he stays in the race, he'll take a good 10% in every state, and more in the northeast and midwest, although probably not enough to win any state except Ohio.  He's had a few little jolts to his campaign but it seems like the fix is in and he won't be getting much help from the party.
But he also knows that the longer he stays in, the more he can help to stop Rubio from winning.

Especially if he's still in the race in a month.  His decision to go hard in the midwest would likely be the difference between Rubio and Trump taking the nomination if Rubio moves up to about 30-40% as many seem to be expecting him to.

Now Rubio obviously doesn't want to lose the nomination.  But Kasich doesn't want him to lose the nomination either.  Presumably a Rubio ticket makes Kasich a lot happier, and gives him better future prospects, than a Trump ticket.  Kasich has nothing to gain from Rubio losing to Trump.

Rubio can almost certainly get Kasich out of the race with a promise of the VP spot.  But Rubio doesn't want to give that prize away if he doesn't have to.  However, the longer Rubio holds out, the more likely it becomes that he loses the nomination, as described above.

Are Rubio and Kasich basically playing a game of chicken, racing their cars headlong towards the cliff (mid-March), each one waiting to see if the other swerves first (Rubio by giving the VP spot, Kasich by dropping out) and knowing that if they go over the cliff, Trump wins?

[P123]

Even if he gets out right now, and endorses Rubio he (Rubio) will still be crushed by the MIGHT of TRUMP TOWER!

[Asian Nazi]

And this is why that NH result was so great for TRUMP!

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I'm not convinced Kasich thinks Rubio can avoid another public meltdown, much less win the nomination.

[Maxwell]

Kasich wants to be President and thinks Rubio can't do the job and he, Kasich, can. Not that hard to understand if you aren't a beltway idiot.

[Ogre Mage]

Rubiobot had a chance to knock Kasich out of the race in N.H.  Instead he got stuck on repeat.

[Sir Mohamed]

Kasich hopes that Rubio implodes and/or that he can convince voters and the establishment, that he is the REAL alternative to the Trumpster. And he indeed is. Rubio has no record to run on, Kasich has and he has a larger appeal to the electorate in the GE. Rubio is fine as Kasich’s VP, not the other way around.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Trump can and likely will win the nomination in any event.

[heatmaster]

Rubio can afford to wait until March 15, if he wins Florida and Kasich wins (V.P.) or loses (gets diddly squat except speaking role at Cleveland convention) Ohio, then Trump wins the whole enchilada and no one gets anything except unless Trump decides so. Kasich is basically stuck between a rock and a hard place and victory in Ohio is essential to his viability on the ticket. If he loses Ohio, then Trump can offer Bob Portman the V.P. slot; Portman is pretty low key and has just as much governmental experience as Kasich....so Kasich needs to win Ohio if he wants to maintain any leverage for the future, if he loses then he is not viable; the same scenario applies to Rubio in Florida. I can imagine the following scenario unfolding....Clinton goes with Sherrod Brown and Trump with Rubio or Portman or Kasich or even Martinez...Martinez likely if Trump goes with a female V.P. she's a sitting Governor from a western state, Hispanic and Roman Catholic.

[SillyAmerican]

Kasich hopes that Rubio implodes and/or that he can convince voters and the establishment, that he is the REAL alternative to the Trumpster. And he indeed is. Rubio has no record to run on, Kasich has and he has a larger appeal to the electorate in the GE. Rubio is fine as Kasich’s VP, not the other way around.

Agreed. And I think more and more people will realize this over time...

[PresidentTRUMP]

See i think its the exact opposite. Maybe im crazy lol based on my theory. But based on the polls Trump is the only candidate that can reach the delegates needed to win the nomination. By having Kasich stay in the race and if he can win a few states like Ohio, Michigan ect. It gives the party the best shot at brokered convention.

A brokered convention would IMO most likely lead to a Rubio nomination which would probably also give Kasich the VP spot.

The VP spot may have already been offered by Rubio to Kasich but the plan is to stop Trump from getting the 1,250 delegates he needs. A winner take all state like Ohio would go a long way in making it a brokered convention. I think the establishment knows thats the only real way to stop Trump. Have Kasich stay in and win Ohio winner take all, Hope and Pray Rubio wins Floridas 100 delegates winner take all and hope Cruz steals some states from Trump in the south on Super Tuesday.

Because I don't see a path to the nomination for anyone besides Trump unless theres a brokered convention. Is it still a LONG LONG shot? YES, but i think the establishment realizes this LONG shot is their only shot to stop Trump.

Thats just my theory.

[RI]

Kasich is not Rubio's bitch. He owes him nothing.

[PeteB]

See i think its the exact opposite. Maybe im crazy lol based on my theory. But based on the polls Trump is the only candidate that can reach the delegates needed to win the nomination. By having Kasich stay in the race and if he can win a few states like Ohio, Michigan ect. It gives the party the best shot at brokered convention.

A brokered convention would IMO most likely lead to a Rubio nomination which would probably also give Kasich the VP spot.

The VP spot may have already been offered by Rubio to Kasich but the plan is to stop Trump from getting the 1,250 delegates he needs. A winner take all state like Ohio would go a long way in making it a brokered convention. I think the establishment knows thats the only real way to stop Trump. Have Kasich stay in and win Ohio winner take all, Hope and Pray Rubio wins Floridas 100 delegates winner take all and hope Cruz steals some states from Trump in the south on Super Tuesday.

Because I don't see a path to the nomination for anyone besides Trump unless theres a brokered convention. Is it still a LONG LONG shot? YES, but i think the establishment realizes this LONG shot is their only shot to stop Trump.

Thats just my theory.

Interesting theory.  But if the GOP does something like that, why wouldn't a vindictive Trump organize a third party bid (even through a write-in campaign) and ensure GOP loses?  Besides, if Kasich really wanted the VP spot, he has as good chance of an offer from Trump, as much as from Rubio!  If Trump is the nominee, he will need all the establishment credibility and governing experience as h

In spite of all the media hype, I do think that only Trump or Kasich can realistically win the nomination - that is Kasich's rationale for staying in.  Call me crazy but, unless the establishment actually forces Kasich out, I see Trump and Kasich battling it out, post- March 15, with Cruz potentially hanging around, as a spoiler.

[Fargobison]

Kasich won't win Michigan and he might not win Ohio with Rubio splitting votes with him. I don't really get what he is doing unless he wants to be somebody's VP.

I do agree Kasich owes nobody nothing but I don't really get his strategy for winning, he will be wiped out on Super Tuesday as a viable candidate.

[PeteB]

Kasich won't win Michigan and he might not win Ohio with Rubio splitting votes with him. I don't really get what he is doing unless he wants to be somebody's VP.

I do agree Kasich owes nobody nothing but I don't really get his strategy for winning, he will be wiped out on Super Tuesday as a viable candidate.

Let's see how things look after Thursday's debate!

[Lyin' Steve]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/25/upshot/john-kasich-republican-nomination.html?action=click&contentCollection=The%20Upshot&module=MostPopularFB&version=Full&region=Marginalia&src=me&pgtype=article

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Bitch I got this

[Simfan34]

Kasich knows what he is doing. Rubio is a vapid empty suit who is not fit to go anywhere near the Oval Office.

[TJ in Oregon]

Kasich is a great candidate on paper,  and even a much-improved one in front of a camera, but he has no chance at securing the nomination at this point. I don't think Cruz even has a realistic shot at the nomination at this point. Furthermore, he's probably alienated too many Republicans to stop Trump one-on-one at this point too, not that I wouldn't enthusiastically support him given the opportunity.

It does begin to depend on what Kasich wants to do. 46 states have still yet to vote, something I'm sure Kasich is willing to point out. Yet the nature of primaries makes early wins begin to build momentum quickly, so he would need to act within the next three weeks if he does want to salvage the party from destruction. Kasich, at least, has not openly dropped dignity and bowed to the feet of the enemy yet, which cannot be said for all establishment apparatchicks. If the party does survive the next year, a  purge is necessary for all those in the establishment who have cravenly sought their own self-interest and did so during this fight, such as Gov. Branstad.