VT-VPR/Castleton Polling: Scott (R) favored in governors race

[MT Treasurer]

They didn't ask people who they are going to vote for in November, so I can't enter it into the database. But still a very good poll for Scott....

Who do you hope to see elected Vermont's governor in November 2016?

Phil Scott (R) 66%
Matt Dunne (D) 15%
Sue Minter (D) 12%
Bruce Lisman (R)  3%
Someone else (specify)   2%
Not sure/Don't know 1%

Republican primary: Scott 42%, Lisman 4%, Neither 13%, Not sure 40%
Democratic primary: Dunne 19%, Minter 11%, Neither 18%, Not sure 51%

http://digital.vpr.net/post/vpr-poll-races-issues-and-full-results#stream/0

[Figueira]

How is VPR as a pollster?

Anyway, if this is accurate, I'd expect the race to tighten up a little as we learn who the Democrats are nominating and maybe as the Presidential race develops, but Scott would be favored for now.

[ElectionsGuy]

Oh... wow, didn't expect that.

[Maxwell]

It doesn't make any sense to just poll every candidate. Trash poll.

[/]

Just as I expected (my Vermont gubernatorial prediction has been Republican ever since January)

[RINO Tom]

Hopefully VT elects a Republican governor, and order is restored.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Glorious news! Hopefully the coattails (coatheads?) help to spite Hillary too

[Xing]

Weird way of conducting a poll. Scott's a top notch candidate, but he has to hope for an enormous number of split-tickets...

[user12345]

Having gubernatorial elections every two years really messes with my head... It seems like just last month that the Vermont legislature was voting to choose a governor.

[MT Treasurer]

Weird way of conducting a poll. Scott's a top notch candidate, but he has to hope for an enormous number of split-tickets...

Coattails are mostly a myth. Vermont elected a Republican governor in 2008 and WV elected a Democratic governor in 2012.

[smoltchanov]

Scott is a top-notch candidate, almost ideally reflecting Vermont's median ideological position (substantially left-of-center on most cultural and environmental issues, but with at least some fiscal conservative streak). So he can win even with Democrats getting over 65% of vote in Presidential election. And, in addition, i doubt that Trump (himself from North-East) will be SO unpopular among Vermonters - he is much less socially conservative then most Republican candidates are, he represents "forgotten working class" people rather well, and will get substantial number of votes in many tiny Vermont towns (and, for that matter, in Maine's lumber and potato cities and towns as well). So 37-40% is possible for him there. He will be snuffed by "gentry liberals", but there are not too much of them in Vermont.

And, in addition, Hillary utterly lacks Bill's charm. A tight-lipped and fastened on all buttons business-lady. Frankly speaking (and i remember all American Presidential campaigns since 1964) - i never saw such abysmally degrading list of candidates (exception - i like Sanders personally very much, but he is absolutely unelectable) as this time. Even "my" first campaign of 1964 was much more interesting and candidates were more serious.. Now what i see are "dull empty-suit managers" against "professional clowns"....

[Phony Moderate]

For all the talk of how politically polarized America is, it is interesting that a state which has landslided a socialist to the Senate twice (and would no doubt give him a landslide if he were the Dem presidential nominee) now looks set to elect a Republican by a landslide.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Coattails are mostly a myth. Vermont elected a Republican governor in 2008 and WV elected a Democratic governor in 2012.

True.  So many people split ticket that coattail effects are very rare.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only one to have won this race would be Welch.

[Xing]

Weird way of conducting a poll. Scott's a top notch candidate, but he has to hope for an enormous number of split-tickets...

Coattails are mostly a myth. Vermont elected a Republican governor in 2008 and WV elected a Democratic governor in 2012.

Two examples don't disprove multiple examples of the contrary (just about any competitive senate race in 2012, NV-4, IA-1, and ME-2 in 2014, Edelen getting taken down, Grimes almost losing in Kentucky due to Conway, etc. Split-ticketing was far more common in 2008, and Manchin is a household name in WV. No doubt, Scott will win plenty of Clinton voters, but can he still win enough?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Weird way of conducting a poll. Scott's a top notch candidate, but he has to hope for an enormous number of split-tickets...

Coattails are mostly a myth. Vermont elected a Republican governor in 2008 and WV elected a Democratic governor in 2012.

Two examples don't disprove multiple examples of the contrary (just about any competitive senate race in 2012, NV-4, IA-1, and ME-2 in 2014, Edelen getting taken down, Grimes almost losing in Kentucky due to Conway, etc. Split-ticketing was far more common in 2008, and Manchin is a household name in WV. No doubt, Scott will win plenty of Clinton voters, but can he still win enough?

ND, MT, IN? I could add in Missouri but that's such a special case that I'll let it slide.

[sg0508]

VT is one of those states that has proven over the years to elect Republicans for governor without a problem. Look at Massachusetts.  This one should be an easy GOP pickup.  Jim Douglas had a relatively successful run too as VT governor.

[Figueira]

Weird way of conducting a poll. Scott's a top notch candidate, but he has to hope for an enormous number of split-tickets...

Coattails are mostly a myth. Vermont elected a Republican governor in 2008 and WV elected a Democratic governor in 2012.

Douglas in 2008 was an incumbent, though.

[pbrower2a]

How is VPR as a pollster?

Anyway, if this is accurate, I'd expect the race to tighten up a little as we learn who the Democrats are nominating and maybe as the Presidential race develops, but Scott would be favored for now.

I'm guessing that Vermont is unusually easy to poll reliably. The state is ethnically homogeneous; there is little of a rural-urban divide; the state does not straddle regions; it is extremely partisan. It's just not very interesting. For a tough state to poll, look at Texas, which straddles American regions, has huge ethnic diversity, has a boom-and-bust economy due to the heavy reliance upon oil for its economy, and has some well-separated giant cities.

 Not relying upon resource extraction (unless you count maple syrup), Vermont isn't a boom-and-bust state. Vermont is simply boring in its politics.  For good reason it gets polled little. 

[smoltchanov]

I wouldn't say that Vermont politics is boring - quite the contrary. IMHO - it's politics is much more interesting that those of, say, Maryland, with it's strong polarization of late (almost no moderate Republicans, and, after 2014 elections, very few moderate Democrats, so voting in Legislature is VERY predictable there). Though, admittedly, after looking at ACU ratings of Vermont legislature for last year i was surprised: contrary to general opinion very few Republicans got low ("moderate") ratings, but there were very moderate Democrats, and one even managed to get 100% from ACU (the only one Democratic legislator in 2015 AFAIK). So, no, Vermont's politics (besides Presidential) is very interesting. And people routinely split their vote there (probably only Maine surpasses Vermont in this aspect), contrary to many very "rigid" states, which are REALLY boring.....