Sanders best county in South Carolina?

[Gass3268]

What will be Senator Sanders best county in South Carolina? Will he even win a county in the state?

[Torie]

Oh, my ignorant guess is Horry County.

[RI]

Beaufort, maybe? If not, then maybe one of the white counties upstate like Pickens or Oconee. Lexington might be possible, too. It's really hard to say.

[DC732]

I guess Horry since it was Hillary's best last time around.

[Torie]

I went with Horry because it is in the Tidewater, and thus more moderate, has a relatively low black percentage, and is poorer than other county candidates along the cost. I rejected those two counties in the far west of the state, which are the whitest of all, on the theory that even the Democrats there are not social justice warriors.

[Gass3268]

I'm going with Pickens County. Obama won it by 1% in 2008 over Edwards, but it is only 6.82% black. It is home of Clemson University, which is were I imagine Obama got most of his support in the county and where Sanders would do well.

[RI]

I'm going with Pickens County. Obama won it by 1% in 2008 over Edwards, but it is only 6.82% black. It is home of Clemson University, which is were I imagine Obama got most of his support in the county and where Sanders would do well.

Pickens was one of the most anti-Clinton counties in SC in 1992 as well. Marion, where Coastal Carolina is, was also one of his worst.

[Wells]

Which one is the whitest?

[ElectionsGuy]

One of the nothwest counties - Pickens, Oconee, etc.

[Torie]

Which one is the whitest?

Here you go with a real cool map of racial percentages of SC counties. That is the map I looked at to come up with Horry County. How Atlas.

[Wells]

Which one is the whitest?

Here you go with a real cool map of racial percentages of SC counties. That is the map I looked at to come up with Horry County. How Atlas.

Pickens country is the whitest. It makes sense that it will be the best country for Sanders.

[F_S_USATN]

I'm going with Horry as well..which will probably be 5% of the statewide vote

[Torie]

Which one is the whitest?

Here you go with a real cool map of racial percentages of SC counties. That is the map I looked at to come up with Horry County. How Atlas.

Pickens country is the whitest. It makes sense that it will be the best country for Sanders.

But it is so conservative. But then, the few Dems in the county might be a different breed. We shall find out soon.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Oconee

[Suburbia]

Horry County.

[Asian Nazi]

But it is so conservative. But then, the few Dems in the county might be a different breed. We shall find out soon.

Lots of the most conservative precincts in IA voted for Sanders.

I'm guessing the few pockets of Sanders support in SC will be in the Northwest and the college towns. 

[Adam Griffin]

I'm going to say Oconee. Oconee is where Edwards is from - usually, I would say that the bulk of "Edwards 2008 voters = Clinton 2016 voters", but in the absence of Edwards and the Hometown Effect, Oconee would have been a very strong Clinton county (relatively speaking, by SC standards) in 2008.

In the South, I expect that generally, the strongest Clinton 2008 counties will be the strongest Sanders 2016 counties. I realize Horry was the only county Clinton won, but it is a completely different type of county - I think Clinton will pull a large share of the Edwards 2008 vote from there.

Oconee was Obama's worst county. Some could say that "fewer Obama voters = less Sanders popularity" due to a lack of liberals, but as I said, I think Clinton's 2008 counties in the South are going to go more for Sanders as a whole than the Obama counties (save for college counties). I'm not saying Sanders will win those Clinton 2008 counties, but they'll be among his strongest.

Additionally and as I recall, Oconee still has a lot of blue-collar work (possibly manufacturing?) that makes it more working-class than most of the rest of the state. I think you're going to see Sanders do his best in places like GA, NC, SC along their most northern areas as a contiguous bloc, and that includes Oconee.

He'll probably do very well in Horry, too (top 5), but I don't think it'll be his best county. Pickens could possibly be Sanders' best county. I think it'll be really close between Oconee and Pickens, with Horry maybe 3rd.

[Torie]

I'm going to say Oconee. Oconee is where Edwards is from - usually, I would say that the bulk of "Edwards 2008 voters = Clinton 2016 voters", but in the absence of Edwards and the Hometown Effect, Oconee would have been a very strong Clinton county (relatively speaking, by SC standards) in 2008.

In the South, I expect that generally, the strongest Clinton 2008 counties will be the strongest Sanders 2016 counties. I realize Horry was the only county Clinton won, but it is a completely different type of county - I think Clinton will pull a large share of the Edwards 2008 vote from there.

Oconee was Obama's worst county. Some could say that "fewer Obama voters = less Sanders popularity" due to a lack of liberals, but as I said, I think Clinton's 2008 counties in the South are going to go more for Sanders as a whole than the Obama counties (save for college counties).

Additionally and as I recall, Oconee still has a lot of blue-collar work (possibly manufacturing?) that makes it more working-class than most of the rest of the state. I think you're going to see Sanders do his best in places like GA, NC, SC along their most northern areas as a contiguous bloc, and that includes Oconee.

He'll probably do very well in Horry, too (top 5), but I don't think it'll be his best county. Pickens could possibly be Sanders' best county. I think it'll be really close between Oconee and Pickens, with Horry maybe 3rd.

FWIW, Oconee has a median family income of 42K, and Horry 41K. So it comes down to whether poorer whites in each county are more likely to be Dems as a percentage in which county, when it comes to the income issue. And I have no idea as to that level of granularity. Are any white students at Clemson Democrats? If not many, then Bernie is left with some professors and graduate student teacher aides, when it comes to the "university" vote.

[Averroës Nix]

If he's below 40% - which is looking likely - I'm guessing that Sanders best county, at last among the larger ones, will be Charleston. That is probably where he has the highest floor.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I don't want to make any predictions about SC until NV happens.  Not because of mo' like other states because SC hardly ever cares what other states do.  (except in 2008 for obvious reasons)  No, I'm talking more about the reaction of the Clinton campaign to a Sanders victory in NV. 

[King of Kensington]

What's the profile of a typical white Democratic primary voter in SC?