Can Trump swing Pennsylvania in the general election?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

He might be able to swing it towards him, sure, but losing by 4.7% instead of 5.4% isn't very impressive.

[President Johnson]

Of course he can.

[Ljube]

Although it is unlikely I could see Trump narrowly winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college if it's a close election. I think that currently, and ironically, Democrats have a slight advantage in the electoral college. I could see, for example, Trump doing really well in many safe Republican states and narrowly losing certain swing states.

On the contrary. It is far more likely for TRUMP to LOSE the popular vote and WIN the Electoral College.

Remember, TRUMP picks up traditional Dem constituencies (working class whites and working class any color) compared to your generic R, but loses a lot of Establishment R types. So I can see TRUMP losing a lot of votes in places like California, New York, Texas, Arizona and still losing/winning the same states a generic R would. TRUMP will lose Virginia and similar states badly. But he will compensate for it in Pennsylvania and similar states.

[Virginiá]

I suppose it's possible, but it's highly unlikely. Fewer places seem to overestimate Trump's electability than Atlas. In all likelihood, he'd lose badly nationwide, which means doing at least as bad as Romney did in Pennsylvania.

Shhh. We don't talk like that here. Trump is going to win in a landslide that will usher in a new era of political dominance by bombastic reality TV stars

Jokes aside, I think it's very unlikely Trump will surprise anyone on election day. An election with Trump on the ticket will only bring pain to the Republican party.

Can? Absolutely. Will? Not without a landslide.

It's nothing to do with Trump and everything to do with polarization. PA is not a swing state, a Republican hasn't carried it in 28 years.

I wish people would think about this more before calling PA a swing state. If it has voted for the same party's nominee in every presidential election since 1992, how exactly is that a swing state? It doesn't really matter if the margins were relatively close if you still get the same end result each time. It's also worth noting that GHWB's 1988 win in PA was only by a measly 2.31% margin. After that, all Democratic.

[IceSpear]

It's really completely unpredictable how a GE with Trump would go. I think it's safe to say he has a higher chance of flipping it against Sanders rather than Hillary though.

[EliteLX]

Anyone who answers yes is oblivious to the cencus demographics, previous voting trends and there literally being no reasonable way to make the numbers work for Trumps favor.

Trump will never, ever, swing PA in '16. You can't just pull the "whites love Trump!" card as anecdotal evidence to come to the conclusion he somehow wins statewide. He literally has no reasonable path with the numbers & demographics to win >50% of votes cast in the state.

[Asian Nazi]

Anyone who answers yes is oblivious to the cencus demographics, previous voting trends and there literally being no reasonable way to make the numbers work for Trumps favor.

Trump will never, ever, swing PA.

Tell me, are you always this low energy?

[EliteLX]

Anyone who answers yes is oblivious to the cencus demographics, previous voting trends and there literally being no reasonable way to make the numbers work for Trumps favor.

Trump will never, ever, swing PA in '16. You can't just pull the "whites love Trump!" card as anecdotal evidence to come to the conclusion he somehow wins statewide. He literally has no reasonable path with the numbers & demographics to win >50% of votes cast in the state.

Tell me, are you always this low energy?

I'll bite.

Nothing in regards to energy, just stating some facts, friend.

[Ljube]

Anyone who answers yes is oblivious to the cencus demographics, previous voting trends and there literally being no reasonable way to make the numbers work for Trumps favor.

Trump will never, ever, swing PA in '16. You can't just pull the "whites love Trump!" card as anecdotal evidence to come to the conclusion he somehow wins statewide. He literally has no reasonable path with the numbers & demographics to win >50% of votes cast in the state.

Tell me, are you always this low energy?

I'll bite.

Nothing in regards to energy, just stating some facts, friend.

How do you know this?
Remember where TRUMP was back in June/July? Everybody was making fun of his candidacy.
His favorables were awful.

And behold where he is now!

What makes you think he won't do it again in the general?

[EliteLX]

Anyone who answers yes is oblivious to the cencus demographics, previous voting trends and there literally being no reasonable way to make the numbers work for Trumps favor.

Trump will never, ever, swing PA in '16. You can't just pull the "whites love Trump!" card as anecdotal evidence to come to the conclusion he somehow wins statewide. He literally has no reasonable path with the numbers & demographics to win >50% of votes cast in the state.

Tell me, are you always this low energy?

I'll bite.

Nothing in regards to energy, just stating some facts, friend.

How do you know this?
Remember where TRUMP was back in June/July? Everybody was making fun of his candidacy.
His favorables were awful.

And behold where he is now!

What makes you think he won't do it again in the general?

His favorables were awful in a highly conservative Republican primary and party which he has turned around appealing with red meat to white uneducated primary voters. General is a completely different story.

And favorability aside, with Trumps hit in Latinos & Asians & college educated whites, he would need nearly 69% of the uneducated whites (with a massive turnout) and 10% of the black vote to even tip PA with razer thin margins. 69% of the uneducated white vote, with a 5-7%+ turnout bump and blacks running to Trump with lack of turnout is not happening. 69% of uneducated whites is not happening. Romney ran up records with 62% of uneducated whites at a 57% turnout (this model uses a 65% turnout + the massive boost to even get the state to flip)

How big is a 62% (Romney) to 69% required uneducated white flip? So large of a PV change, that if Romney would of done nothing but bumped his white uneducated voters up this 7%, he would of won NH, WI, FL, CO, IA, as well as OH.

There is no reasonable non-anecdotal path for Trump to flip the state. Sorry.

[Ljube]

Anyone who answers yes is oblivious to the cencus demographics, previous voting trends and there literally being no reasonable way to make the numbers work for Trumps favor.

Trump will never, ever, swing PA in '16. You can't just pull the "whites love Trump!" card as anecdotal evidence to come to the conclusion he somehow wins statewide. He literally has no reasonable path with the numbers & demographics to win >50% of votes cast in the state.

Tell me, are you always this low energy?

I'll bite.

Nothing in regards to energy, just stating some facts, friend.

How do you know this?
Remember where TRUMP was back in June/July? Everybody was making fun of his candidacy.
His favorables were awful.

And behold where he is now!

What makes you think he won't do it again in the general?

His favorables were awful in a highly conservative Republican primary and party which he has turned around appealing with red meat to white uneducated primary voters. General is a completely different story.

And favorability aside, with Trumps hit in Latinos & Asians & college educated whites, he would need nearly 69% of the uneducated whites (with a massive turnout) and 10% of the black vote to even tip PA with razer thin margins. 69% of the uneducated white vote, with a 5-7%+ turnout bump and blacks running to Trump with lack of turnout is not happening. 69% of uneducated whites is not happening. Romney ran up records with 62% of uneducated whites at a 57% vote (this model uses a 65% turnout + the massive boost to even get the state to flip)

Romney is not a good fit for uneducated white voters.
Besides, TRUMP's new uneducated whites come only partly from first time voters, but mostly from former Dem voters. These union workers hated Romney and LOVE TRUMP.

They hate Hillary too.

[Asian Nazi]

Anyone who answers yes is oblivious to the cencus demographics, previous voting trends and there literally being no reasonable way to make the numbers work for Trumps favor.

Trump will never, ever, swing PA in '16. You can't just pull the "whites love Trump!" card as anecdotal evidence to come to the conclusion he somehow wins statewide. He literally has no reasonable path with the numbers & demographics to win >50% of votes cast in the state.

Tell me, are you always this low energy?

I'll bite.

Nothing in regards to energy, just stating some facts, friend.

How do you know this?
Remember where TRUMP was back in June/July? Everybody was making fun of his candidacy.
His favorables were awful.

And behold where he is now!

What makes you think he won't do it again in the general?

His favorables were awful in a highly conservative Republican primary and party which he has turned around appealing with red meat to white uneducated primary voters. General is a completely different story.

And favorability aside, with Trumps hit in Latinos & Asians & college educated whites, he would need nearly 69% of the uneducated whites (with a massive turnout) and 10% of the black vote to even tip PA with razer thin margins. 69% of the uneducated white vote, with a 5-7%+ turnout bump and blacks running to Trump with lack of turnout is not happening. 69% of uneducated whites is not happening. Romney ran up records with 62% of uneducated whites at a 57% turnout (this model uses a 65% turnout + the massive boost to even get the state to flip)

There is no reasonable non-anecdotal path for Trump to flip the state. Sorry.

It's going to be so fun when TRUMP wins and all of the low energy wannabe Nate Silvers on this forum have meltdowns.

[Virginiá]

How do you know this?
Remember where TRUMP was back in June/July? Everybody was making fun of his candidacy.
His favorables were awful.

And behold where he is now!

What makes you think he won't do it again in the general?

Success in a Republican primary is entirely different from potential success in a general election. It's hardly enough to counter all the demographic and historical data suggesting any Republican, much less Trump, will have a difficult time competing in PA. The statement "<insert white voter subgroup> LOVES trump" suggests absolutely nothing, either.

In fact, it's not really relevant at all. Sanders is doing pretty well in the primaries right now, so I guess he has a shot at South Carolina, right?

[EliteLX]

Anyone who answers yes is oblivious to the cencus demographics, previous voting trends and there literally being no reasonable way to make the numbers work for Trumps favor.

Trump will never, ever, swing PA in '16. You can't just pull the "whites love Trump!" card as anecdotal evidence to come to the conclusion he somehow wins statewide. He literally has no reasonable path with the numbers & demographics to win >50% of votes cast in the state.

Tell me, are you always this low energy?

I'll bite.

Nothing in regards to energy, just stating some facts, friend.

How do you know this?
Remember where TRUMP was back in June/July? Everybody was making fun of his candidacy.
His favorables were awful.

And behold where he is now!

What makes you think he won't do it again in the general?

His favorables were awful in a highly conservative Republican primary and party which he has turned around appealing with red meat to white uneducated primary voters. General is a completely different story.

And favorability aside, with Trumps hit in Latinos & Asians & college educated whites, he would need nearly 69% of the uneducated whites (with a massive turnout) and 10% of the black vote to even tip PA with razer thin margins. 69% of the uneducated white vote, with a 5-7%+ turnout bump and blacks running to Trump with lack of turnout is not happening. 69% of uneducated whites is not happening. Romney ran up records with 62% of uneducated whites at a 57% turnout (this model uses a 65% turnout + the massive boost to even get the state to flip)

There is no reasonable non-anecdotal path for Trump to flip the state. Sorry.

It's going to be so fun when TRUMP wins and all of the low energy wannabe Nate Silvers on this forum have meltdowns.

You truly should be banned for plastering stupid sh**t around the forum all day

lol.

[Türkisblau]

Yes, the unions are practically guaranteed to rally to Trump.

[EliteLX]

Anyone who answers yes is oblivious to the cencus demographics, previous voting trends and there literally being no reasonable way to make the numbers work for Trumps favor.

Trump will never, ever, swing PA in '16. You can't just pull the "whites love Trump!" card as anecdotal evidence to come to the conclusion he somehow wins statewide. He literally has no reasonable path with the numbers & demographics to win >50% of votes cast in the state.

Tell me, are you always this low energy?

I'll bite.

Nothing in regards to energy, just stating some facts, friend.

How do you know this?
Remember where TRUMP was back in June/July? Everybody was making fun of his candidacy.
His favorables were awful.

And behold where he is now!

What makes you think he won't do it again in the general?

His favorables were awful in a highly conservative Republican primary and party which he has turned around appealing with red meat to white uneducated primary voters. General is a completely different story.

And favorability aside, with Trumps hit in Latinos & Asians & college educated whites, he would need nearly 69% of the uneducated whites (with a massive turnout) and 10% of the black vote to even tip PA with razer thin margins. 69% of the uneducated white vote, with a 5-7%+ turnout bump and blacks running to Trump with lack of turnout is not happening. 69% of uneducated whites is not happening. Romney ran up records with 62% of uneducated whites at a 57% vote (this model uses a 65% turnout + the massive boost to even get the state to flip)

Romney is not a good fit for uneducated white voters.
Besides, TRUMP's new uneducated whites come only partly from first time voters, but mostly from former Dem voters. These union workers hated Romney and LOVE TRUMP.

They hate Hillary too.

Again, you're underestimating how large a 7% change is for such a large demographic.

If Trump wins 69-70% of the uneducated white vote (absolutely not showing in any polling or anything whatsoever, he is trailing by larger margins than Romney in just about all opinion and polling releases) with a 5-7% turnout increase then I'll owe you a couple hundred bucks. That is a massive, massive sway in an election. It isn't reasonable.

[Ljube]

Again, you're underestimating how large a 7% change is for such a large demographic.

If Trump wins 69-70% of the uneducated white vote (absolutely not showing in any polling or anything whatsoever, he is trailing by larger margins than Romney in just about all opinion and polling releases) with a 5-7% turnout increase then I'll owe you a couple hundred bucks. That is a massive, massive sway in an election. It isn't reasonable.

Well, if that happens, we will spend that money on celebration.

[EliteLX]

Again, you're underestimating how large a 7% change is for such a large demographic.

If Trump wins 69-70% of the uneducated white vote (absolutely not showing in any polling or anything whatsoever, he is trailing by larger margins than Romney in just about all opinion and polling releases) with a 5-7% turnout increase then I'll owe you a couple hundred bucks. That is a massive, massive sway in an election. It isn't reasonable.

Well, if that happens, we will spend that money on celebration.

I guess it's only fair!

[Asian Nazi]

Anyone who answers yes is oblivious to the cencus demographics, previous voting trends and there literally being no reasonable way to make the numbers work for Trumps favor.

Trump will never, ever, swing PA in '16. You can't just pull the "whites love Trump!" card as anecdotal evidence to come to the conclusion he somehow wins statewide. He literally has no reasonable path with the numbers & demographics to win >50% of votes cast in the state.

Tell me, are you always this low energy?

I'll bite.

Nothing in regards to energy, just stating some facts, friend.

How do you know this?
Remember where TRUMP was back in June/July? Everybody was making fun of his candidacy.
His favorables were awful.

And behold where he is now!

What makes you think he won't do it again in the general?

His favorables were awful in a highly conservative Republican primary and party which he has turned around appealing with red meat to white uneducated primary voters. General is a completely different story.

And favorability aside, with Trumps hit in Latinos & Asians & college educated whites, he would need nearly 69% of the uneducated whites (with a massive turnout) and 10% of the black vote to even tip PA with razer thin margins. 69% of the uneducated white vote, with a 5-7%+ turnout bump and blacks running to Trump with lack of turnout is not happening. 69% of uneducated whites is not happening. Romney ran up records with 62% of uneducated whites at a 57% turnout (this model uses a 65% turnout + the massive boost to even get the state to flip)

There is no reasonable non-anecdotal path for Trump to flip the state. Sorry.

It's going to be so fun when TRUMP wins and all of the low energy wannabe Nate Silvers on this forum have meltdowns.

You truly should be banned for plastering stupid sh**t around the forum all day

lol.

What a low energy comeback

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Literally 95% of the Republican vote in Pennsylvania comes from whites already.

If Bush couldn't win it 2004 with 2.8 million votes and 48.4% of the vote, the peak Republican performance in both raw votes and percentage, after 9/11 and tax cuts, then Trump sure as hell isn't winning it by trying to go deeper with Romney's strategy of maxing out a shrinking pool of older white working class voters.

Republicans can get 47% - 48% off the bat, it's surpassing 49% and winning with a plurality or taking a majority outright that they have trouble with. 2.9 million votes and ~51% is basically the Democrats' floor considering inelasticity of the state.

Republicans need to massively improve in Philadephia's and Pittsburgh's suburbs (but especially Philly's), where there are more minorities and college-educated whites. Trump is not the candidate to do that, and his strategy will fall flat just like Romney's.

I'm sure the Democrats would love him to waste resources in Pennsylvania instead of Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and Ohio though.

[EliteLX]

Literally 95% of the Republican vote in Pennsylvania comes from whites already.

If Bush couldn't win it 2004 with 2.8 million votes and 48.4% of the vote, the peak Republican performance in both raw votes and percentage, after 9/11 and tax cuts, then Trump sure as hell isn't winning it by trying to go deeper with Romney's strategy of maxing out a shrinking pool of older white working class voters.

Republicans can get 47% - 48% off the bat, it's surpassing 49% and winning with a plurality or taking a majority outright that they have trouble with.

Republicans need to massively improve in Philadephia's and Pittsburgh's suburbs (but especially Philly's), where there are more minorities and college-educated whites. Trump is not the candidate to do that, and his strategy will fall flat just like Romney's.

I'm sure the Democrats would love him to waste resources in Pennsylvania instead of Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and Ohio though.

Logic and statistics? Go to hell you Nate Silver loving sensible piece of political trash!

[Ljube]

Literally 95% of the Republican vote in Pennsylvania comes from whites already.

If Bush couldn't win it 2004 with 2.8 million votes and 48.4% of the vote, the peak Republican performance in both raw votes and percentage, after 9/11 and tax cuts, then Trump sure as hell isn't winning it by trying to go deeper with Romney's strategy of maxing out a shrinking pool of older white working class voters.

Republicans can get 47% - 48% off the bat, it's surpassing 49% and winning with a plurality or taking a majority outright that they have trouble with. 2.9 million votes and ~51% is basically the Democrats' floor considering inelasticity of the state.

Republicans need to massively improve in Philadephia's and Pittsburgh's suburbs (but especially Philly's), where there are more minorities and college-educated whites. Trump is not the candidate to do that, and his strategy will fall flat just like Romney's.

I'm sure the Democrats would love him to waste resources in Pennsylvania instead of Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and Ohio though.

Virginia and Colorado are probably unwinnable for TRUMP. Therefore, investing in Pennsylvania is not wasting resources.

As I already posted, TRUMP will get new votes from union workers who voted for Obama in 2012. These votes are worth more, as they count twice.
He will also get a large percentage of blacks, also worth two votes each (more than 10%).

The white elite from the suburbs is a problem and here I'm betting they eventually fall in line and vote TRUMP too.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Literally 95% of the Republican vote in Pennsylvania comes from whites already.

If Bush couldn't win it 2004 with 2.8 million votes and 48.4% of the vote, the peak Republican performance in both raw votes and percentage, after 9/11 and tax cuts, then Trump sure as hell isn't winning it by trying to go deeper with Romney's strategy of maxing out a shrinking pool of older white working class voters.

Republicans can get 47% - 48% off the bat, it's surpassing 49% and winning with a plurality or taking a majority outright that they have trouble with. 2.9 million votes and ~51% is basically the Democrats' floor considering inelasticity of the state.

Republicans need to massively improve in Philadephia's and Pittsburgh's suburbs (but especially Philly's), where there are more minorities and college-educated whites. Trump is not the candidate to do that, and his strategy will fall flat just like Romney's.

I'm sure the Democrats would love him to waste resources in Pennsylvania instead of Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and Ohio though.

Virginia and Colorado are probably unwinnable for TRUMP. Therefore, investing in Pennsylvania is not wasting resources.

As I already posted, TRUMP will get new votes from union workers who voted for Obama in 2012. These votes are worth more, as they count twice.
He will also get a large percentage of blacks, also worth two votes each (more than 10%).

The white elite from the suburbs is a problem and here I'm betting they eventually fall in line and vote TRUMP too.

There is literally no evidence that any of this is actually going to happen though.

Union members were 1,208,245 (5,753,546 votes * 21% of exit poll saying they were) and 57% (688,699) voted for Obama and 42% (507,463) voted for Romney.

Obama's margin of victory was 310,000 votes. Even if they had tied 50-50 amongst union members, that would only have cut Obama's margin by 85,000 votes. Still wins by 150,000 votes (2.9 million to 2.75 million, still less than Bush in 2004).

And blacks, you're just pulling out of thin air. But to entertain your fantasy, 13% of votes said they were black (748,000). 93% voted for Obama (696,000) and 5% for Romney (37,000).

Let's say those percentages were 84% (628,000, an awful showing for a Democrat) and 15% for Republicans (112,000).

Add those numbers to the 50-50 union showing and the Democrat still wins by 30,000 votes.

Trump has no path in Pennsylvania. The votes aren't there.

[Ljube]

Literally 95% of the Republican vote in Pennsylvania comes from whites already.

If Bush couldn't win it 2004 with 2.8 million votes and 48.4% of the vote, the peak Republican performance in both raw votes and percentage, after 9/11 and tax cuts, then Trump sure as hell isn't winning it by trying to go deeper with Romney's strategy of maxing out a shrinking pool of older white working class voters.

Republicans can get 47% - 48% off the bat, it's surpassing 49% and winning with a plurality or taking a majority outright that they have trouble with. 2.9 million votes and ~51% is basically the Democrats' floor considering inelasticity of the state.

Republicans need to massively improve in Philadephia's and Pittsburgh's suburbs (but especially Philly's), where there are more minorities and college-educated whites. Trump is not the candidate to do that, and his strategy will fall flat just like Romney's.

I'm sure the Democrats would love him to waste resources in Pennsylvania instead of Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and Ohio though.

Virginia and Colorado are probably unwinnable for TRUMP. Therefore, investing in Pennsylvania is not wasting resources.

As I already posted, TRUMP will get new votes from union workers who voted for Obama in 2012. These votes are worth more, as they count twice.
He will also get a large percentage of blacks, also worth two votes each (more than 10%).

The white elite from the suburbs is a problem and here I'm betting they eventually fall in line and vote TRUMP too.

There is literally no evidence that any of this is actually going to happen though.

Union members were 1,208,245 (5,753,546 votes * 21% of exit poll saying they were) and 57% (688,699) voted for Obama and 42% (507,463) voted for Romney.

Obama's margin of victory was 310,000 votes. Even if they had tied 50-50 amongst union members, that would only have cut Obama's margin by 85,000 votes. Still wins by 150,000 votes (2.9 million to 2.75 million, still less than Bush in 2004).

And blacks, you're just pulling out of thin air. But to entertain your fantasy, 13% of votes said they were black (748,000). 93% voted for Obama (696,000) and 5% for Romney (37,000).

Let's say those percentages were 84% (628,000, an awful showing for a Democrat) and 14% for Republicans (112,000).

Add those numbers to the 50-50 union showing and the Democrat still wins by 30,000 votes.

Trump has no path in Pennsylvania. The votes aren't there.

30000 votes is an awful small number of votes to claim this.
You're forgetting new voters who never voted and TRUMP's gonna turn them out (25% of his share I think in New Hampshire, which is some 2% overall).

[ElectionsGuy]

Hell no. The west and middle may swing slightly Republican, only for there to be a harsh swing to the left in the eastern part of the state and the Philly suburbs.