Rubio's "3-5-3" Strategy

[Türkisblau]

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article60567561.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Green Line]

When is he planning on, you know, WINNING a state?

[PeteB]

When is he planning on, you know, WINNING a state?

Nevada - his strategy is 3-5-3-1 (he just truncated it )!

[RI]

When is he planning on, you know, WINNING a state?

Nevada - his strategy is 3-5-3-1 (he just truncated it )!

Let's dispel with the fiction that Rubio's going to win Nevada. He's not going to win Nevada.

[Türkisblau]

When is he planning on, you know, WINNING a state?

Nevada - his strategy is 3-5-3-1 (he just truncated it )!

Let's dispel with the fiction that Rubio's going to win Nevada. He's not going to win Nevada.

Isn't Trump polling reasonably well with Hispanics?

[136or142]

When is he planning on, you know, WINNING a state?

Nevada - his strategy is 3-5-3-1 (he just truncated it )!

Let's dispel with the fiction that Rubio's going to win Nevada. He's not going to win Nevada.

Isn't Trump polling reasonably well with Hispanics?

That's one too many players.  He can go with a 3-5-2. For some reason the current fashionable formation is 4-5-1, but I still like the tried and true 4-4-2.

[RI]

When is he planning on, you know, WINNING a state?

Nevada - his strategy is 3-5-3-1 (he just truncated it )!

Let's dispel with the fiction that Rubio's going to win Nevada. He's not going to win Nevada.

Isn't Trump polling reasonably well with Hispanics?

It hardly matters as Hispanics make up about 8% of the GOP caucus-going electorate in Nevada.

[Ronnie]

3rd place, no.  2nd place is a different story, though.

[PeteB]

When is he planning on, you know, WINNING a state?

Nevada - his strategy is 3-5-3-1 (he just truncated it )!

Let's dispel with the fiction that Rubio's going to win Nevada. He's not going to win Nevada.

Obviously I was joking, but I do think that Rubio has a potential path to victory in NV. It involves 2 steps:

1. Do well in SC (at least 2nd place - perhaps a very close 3rd) - no guarantee that he will do that though!

2. Mobilize a coalition of younger conservative voters and LDS members to vote as a bloc for Rubio - can he do it - who knows?

[RI]

When is he planning on, you know, WINNING a state?

Nevada - his strategy is 3-5-3-1 (he just truncated it )!

Let's dispel with the fiction that Rubio's going to win Nevada. He's not going to win Nevada.

Obviously I was joking, but I do think that Rubio has a potential path to victory in NV. It involves 2 steps:

1. Do well in SC (at least 2nd place - perhaps a very close 3rd) - no guarantee that he will do that though!

2. Mobilize a coalition of younger conservative voters and LDS members to vote as a bloc for Rubio - can he do it - who knows?

There's very little reason to think LDS voters will bloc vote for Rubio. Every poll I've seen shows Mormons split between Cruz, Rubio, and even Carson, with Cruz leading. The fact Rubio is an ex-Mormon may attract some LDS voters, but it repels many as well. There's no way he even comes close to the 88% that Romney got among LDS voters in 2012.

[Fargobison]

Could he get Romney to endorse him if he finishes strongly in SC?

[Sir Mohamed]

I still think he’s gonna end up as nominee.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

When is he planning on, you know, WINNING a state?

Nevada - his strategy is 3-5-3-1 (he just truncated it )!

Let's dispel with the fiction that Rubio's going to win Nevada. He's not going to win Nevada.

Isn't Trump polling reasonably well with Hispanics?

That's one too many players.  He can go with a 3-5-2. For some reason the current fashionable formation is 4-5-1, but I still like the tried and true 4-4-2.

I thought we all agreed that Rubio was a robot, not a train.

[Leinad]

I mean, at some point he'll need to win a state, or at least get runner-up, right?

The truism is that you need to win South Carolina to win the nomination. Now, that's obviously not always the case, and there's a very good chance it isn't the case here. But to say that there's "three tickets out of South Carolina" is nothing more than blatant goalpost-moving and expectation-setting.

When is he planning on, you know, WINNING a state?

Nevada - his strategy is 3-5-3-1 (he just truncated it )!

Let's dispel with the fiction that Rubio's going to win Nevada. He's not going to win Nevada.

Isn't Trump polling reasonably well with Hispanics?

That's one too many players.  He can go with a 3-5-2. For some reason the current fashionable formation is 4-5-1, but I still like the tried and true 4-4-2.

I've always felt Trump was running a 3-5-2 (risky, but effective), Cruz a 4-3-3 (purist), Jeb! a 4-4-2 (as you said, "tried and true," like the Bush crime family dynasty), Rubio a 4-2-3-1 (popular, but not always winning), Kasich a 5-4-1 (kind of boring, but alright), and Carson a 4-3-2 (?!?).

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Let's hope this strategy doesn't end up becoming 3-5-4-5-4-3-4-4-3-4-3-1 or something like that.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I can't wait for the media to spin his 3rd/4th place finish in SC as a massive victory

[Zache]

I can't wait for the media to spin his 3rd/4th place finish in SC as a massive victory

They'll try.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/marco-rubio-south-carolina-219310

[Likely Voter]

The media is Talking about the race like their are two primaries, one between Trump and Cruz, and one between Rubio, Bush and Kasich.  So if SC is Trump, Cruz, Rubio, then Trump and Rubio won.  It's not fair, but that has become the frame they are using.

[PeteB]

The media is Talking about the race like their are two primaries, one between Trump and Cruz, and one between Rubio, Bush and Kasich.  So if SC is Trump, Cruz, Rubio, then Trump and Rubio won.  It's not fair, but that has become the frame they are using.

Which also means that Cruz is in a media no-win situation!

[Likely Voter]

The media is Talking about the race like their are two primaries, one between Trump and Cruz, and one between Rubio, Bush and Kasich.  So if SC is Trump, Cruz, Rubio, then Trump and Rubio won.  It's not fair, but that has become the frame they are using.

Which also means that Cruz is in a media no-win situation!

Exactlyright. If he gets second he will be deemed as losing and if he drops to 3rd he will be considered an even bigger loser. His only positive narrative is to come in 1st, which seems unlikely.    Cruz actually rightfully premocked the media after NH, saying how sure he was they would declare his 3rd place showing a triumph like they did for Rubio after IA.   I might even feel sorry for him if it weren't for his whole being Ted Cruz thing.

[Mehmentum]

The media is Talking about the race like their are two primaries, one between Trump and Cruz, and one between Rubio, Bush and Kasich.  So if SC is Trump, Cruz, Rubio, then Trump and Rubio won.  It's not fair, but that has become the frame they are using.

Which also means that Cruz is in a media no-win situation!

Exactlyright. If he gets second he will be deemed as losing and if he drops to 3rd he will be considered an even bigger loser. His only positive narrative is to come in 1st, which seems unlikely.    Cruz actually rightfully premocked the media after NH, saying how sure he was they would declare his 3rd place showing a triumph like they did for Rubio.   I might even feel sorry for him if it weren't for his whole being Ted Cruz thing.

I think Cruz could get a decent narrative if he can make the race close.  Like if he's less than 5 points behind Trump (which is in itself a big ask), he might be able to benefit from beating expectations.

[IceSpear]

When is he planning on, you know, WINNING a state?

He won the media primary in a landslide, and it's very possible that might be the only one that ends up mattering. We'll see.

[Xing]

Rubio can't play the expectations game forever...

[IceSpear]

I can't wait for the media to spin his 3rd/4th place finish in SC as a massive victory

They'll try.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/marco-rubio-south-carolina-219310

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOL, I knew it! I f**king knew they'd try to spin a 3rd or 4th place finish as "the comeback kid." The media is scum.

[IceSpear]

The media is Talking about the race like their are two primaries, one between Trump and Cruz, and one between Rubio, Bush and Kasich.  So if SC is Trump, Cruz, Rubio, then Trump and Rubio won.  It's not fair, but that has become the frame they are using.

Which also means that Cruz is in a media no-win situation!

And let's not pretend it's a coincidence. Cruz is put in a no-win situation and Rubio an almost certain win situation in terms of narrative setting, barring extraordinary circumstances. I wonder if this has any correlation with the media's hatred of Cruz and boner for Rubio? Hmm...

This is not an accident people. Many political followers discount the extremely important role the media has in determining elections. If there's one mistake I had this election cycle, it was underestimating their power. I knew they had a lot from the start, but they've exceeded even my expectations. Let's just go through a short list:

- Managed to keep their darling Hispanic Obama afloat as a supposed "top tier candidate" for MONTHS even when he was polling at 3-4% and totally irrelevant.

- Either said he outright won every single debate, or included him in a list of multiple winners of every single debate. The only exception being the pre-NH debate, since the implosion was so bad even the media shills couldn't spin it. Rigged focus groups by pro-Rubio Frank Luntz also gave intensely pro-Rubio results. What a coinkydink.

- Completely manufactured Rubio's pre-Iowa momentum out of thin air, leading to a bandwagon effect among anti-Trump and anti-Cruz voters, and eventually creating a self fulfilling prophecy.

- Gave Rubio's 3rd place finish more credit than they gave Cruz's WIN, even though Cruz wasn't expected to win and Rubio was expected to finish 3rd! So even in the expectations game Cruz should've won, but he didn't.

- Despite all this, he implodes and finishes a pathetic 5th place in New Hampshire, behind even fish out of water Cruz and zombie candidate Jeb. Yet, rather than writing him off as a flop, the media continues shilling for him well into SC, planning on giving him a trophy for 3rd or even 4th place, just for being able to finish ahead of Jeb's zombie campaign? WTF! Oh, and of course he "won" the last debate according to the media overlords.

- Successfully tore down the most admired woman in America and most popular politician in the country (particularly among Democrats) with faux scandals and endless negative coverage to the point that a self identified socialist will win a handful of states in the primary against her and some random neurosurgeon with no political experience and the most partisan and hated member of the US Senate can tie or lead her in general election polls.

- Donald Trump. Need I say more?