Would Trump become an Independent again after being elected president?
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  Would Trump become an Independent again after being elected president?
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Author Topic: Would Trump become an Independent again after being elected president?  (Read 1499 times)
Middle-aged Europe
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« on: February 15, 2016, 08:44:02 AM »

What are the chances that a President Trump would change his party affiliation back to Independent during his term?
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Penelope
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« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2016, 08:45:05 AM »

pretty much 0%
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RR1997
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« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2016, 09:09:00 AM »

Trump is obviously not going to become an independent.
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Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy
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« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2016, 09:47:58 AM »

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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: February 15, 2016, 09:49:13 AM »


...because he won't be president.

But even if he becomes prez, he won't do it. How should he then run for reelection?
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #5 on: February 15, 2016, 10:20:38 AM »
« Edited: February 15, 2016, 10:25:18 AM by Fuzzy Bear »

Trump's a Republican, and he'll stay a Republican.  The issue is to what degree the current Republican Party warms up to Trump.

One reason for Jimmy Carter's popularity was that even in 1976, only a candidate like Carter could run as a Democrat and win the General Election.  The party needed a Southerner to compete in the Southern states, and they needed that Southerner to be conservative enough, without being a complete Wallaceite, to be in line with enough white Southern Democrats to carry Southern states.  The blowback from this strategy was that it produced a Democratic candidate who was never close to the traditional constituencies of the Democratic party, especially labor unions and cultural liberals.  (Carter was an Evangelical Christian Governor of a Right-To-Work state.)  

Then, too, was Carter's ambivalence as a National Democrat.  He was a prominent leader in the ABM (Anyone But McGovern) movement in 1972.  He cynically tried to become McGovern's running mate.  When that didn't happen, Carter announced that he would vote for McGovern, but would not campaign for him, and his objections to McGovern came out louder than his tepid endorsement.  (McGovern revealed after 1976 that he ended up voting for Gerald Ford that year; he once called Carter "the biggest p---k in politics")  

Carter's candidacy was, in fact, a coalition candidacy, but it did not result in a coalition Presidency.  Many Democratic activists were never happy with Carter and sought to dump him in 1980 as early as 1977.  Carter tried to govern as a moderate, but he never sought to lead the Democratic party in a moderate direction.  And he could have done this.  He could have, if he had tried, to persuade the Democratic interest groups that a major change had occurred in the 1960s and that half-loaf liberalism was the best they could hope for.  He didn't do this.  His party was never happy with him, and he, in fact, never took the interest in the Democratic party that he needed to in order to build his consensus.

Trump's persona is the opposite of Carter's, but his relationship with the GOP is even more complicated.  Trump has actively challenged a number of longstanding GOP interest groups, and he's taken positions that, if not actually liberal positions, seek to redefine the GOP more than a bit.  (Trump's positions on trade agreements are the best example of this.)  It is hard to imagine the GOP warming up to Trump anymore than the Democrats warmed up to Carter.  Far more than Carter in 1976, Trump's possible nomination in 2016 represents a hostile takeover of the GOP by a person, and his entourage, whom they abhor, and who abhors them.  There will be Republicans from Day One of a Trump Administration that would be planning a 2020 primary challenge.  Indeed, there will be Republicans during the campaign who will actively seek to derail Trump's candidacy, no matter what they think of Hillary Clinton.  (Ted Cruz is despised by many, but no one questions that he is a Republican.)  

We'll see a lot of things.  The GOP may come to realize at some point that they're stuck with Trump, and that they NEED Trump's constituency to meld with their base to win big.  Trump's not a social conservative at heart, but he'll play the game, and he IS a Republican at heart in ways that the 1976 Carter really wasn't.  (Carter became more of a Democrat after being exposed to the unmitigated hatred of Republicans in a less partisan era.)  Trump's challenge is to make his marriage with the Republican Party work.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #6 on: February 15, 2016, 10:25:12 AM »

Presuming he wants to get reelected, it would be better to be the favorite for a major party's nomination.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #7 on: February 15, 2016, 10:30:11 AM »

Well, he's Trump. Anything is possible.

That being said, it isn't very likely. It's virtually impossible for an indie to win, probably even with incumbency on their side, and he knows it.
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Orser67
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« Reply #8 on: February 15, 2016, 10:56:49 AM »

Chances are low but not insignificant. For most politicians, there isn't a lot of upside to not having a party, but if Trump clashes a lot with congressional Republicans (and/or thinks he's in danger of losing renomination) I wouldn't completely rule it out. And a party-less president isn't unprecedented: John Tyler and Andrew Johnson (and Washington, though his example is mostly irrelevant) were both essentially independents.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #9 on: February 15, 2016, 01:45:03 PM »

I'd love to see TRUMP to switch to Democrat right after he's elected president.
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Figueira
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« Reply #10 on: February 15, 2016, 01:47:54 PM »

Maybe if he decides it's politically expedient. He might wait until his second term (*shudders*).
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #11 on: February 15, 2016, 03:26:58 PM »

Wouldn't matter. TRUMP is a uniter, not a divider.
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SillyAmerican
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« Reply #12 on: February 15, 2016, 08:12:22 PM »

Party affiliations are completely useless/worthless. If anybody here can tell me by what reasoning Sanders is running as a Democrat or Trump is running as a Republican, I'd appreciate the schooling...
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #13 on: February 16, 2016, 08:06:43 AM »
« Edited: February 16, 2016, 10:02:20 AM by Old Europe »

The reason for me asking is of course Trump's party affiliation history. He started out as a Democrat, then became a Republican, then a member of the Reform Party (during his run for the Reform Party presidential nomination in 2000), then a Democrat again, then a Republican again, then an Independent, and then a Republican again.

For most of Clinton's and Obama's presidential terms he was a Republican and during George W. Bush's term he was a Democrat.

If he always supports the party which is not currently in power, which party would he belong to if he's in power himself?

Of course, once in power he could also try to form his own party in the mold of Putin's United Russia.
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SteveRogers
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« Reply #14 on: February 16, 2016, 10:39:17 AM »

Party affiliations are completely useless/worthless. If anybody here can tell me by what reasoning Sanders is running as a Democrat or Trump is running as a Republican, I'd appreciate the schooling...

A two party system means you gotta pick a side. Duverger's law, etc., etc. That's why they're running in their respective parties. 

But I agree that party registration/ identification is largely pointless in the American system.
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