Generation Z begins to vote in 2020... how will that change things?

[Virginiá]

What do you define as "overwhelmingly Democratic"?  In 2012, millenials (age 18-29) voted 60-37.  I don't consider anything less than a 20-point margin to truly be overwhelming.  Do you think Gen Z will be 55-45, or 58-42, etc.?

I suppose under 55% - 58% may not be "overwhelming", but sustained losses among entire generations like that would leave Republicans, and any other parties at a severe disadvantage at every level of government going into the future. Sort of like how Democrats have sort of hit a wall at 39% - 43% for decades now among white voters (factoring in low support in the South, of course). That is more or less the result of entire generations of young voters aligning with the GOP at similar numbers during the Eisenhower, and later, Reagan/Bush Sr eras.

[Classic Conservative]

As someone who is a member of Generation Z. I completely agree with cxs, it will be a nightmare like we haven't seen before. Remember that these are the kids that are being taught by the older part of our current millennials. Thankfully, they don't know anything yet besides, Trump is a racist, bully and I'll move to Canada when I am older and Fox News lies. They really don't care about anything else besides Deez Nuts and Kanye 2020. (They mostly want Kanye because of Kim's pornos which they watch nightly, trust me their love of porn is crazy, let me just say that it's bad) Thankfully their still stuck in their shoes, cute boys, bubble butt and porno stage of life. But, I can safely tell that this will be the most different generation we have ever seen and these kids I feel will mostly be potheads and poverty will be rampant again. Everyday when I walk into school, I feel scared for our nation. I feel that a lot of them won't vote though. Which is good But I have know idea about the South or West and I know how CXS' friends are going because we have the same friends group and no we aren't socks.

[Classic Conservative]

As someone who is a member of Generation Z. I completely agree with cxs, it will be a nightmare like we haven't seen before. Remember that these are the kids that are being taught by the older part of our current millennials. Thankfully, they don't know anything yet besides, Trump is a racist, bully and I'll move to Canada when I am older and Fox News lies. They really don't care about anything else besides Deez Nuts and Kanye 2020. (They mostly want Kanye because of Kim's pornos which they watch nightly, trust me their love of porn is crazy, let me just say that it's bad) Thankfully their still stuck in their shoes, cute boys, bubble butt and porno stage of life. But, I can safely tell that this will be the most different generation we have ever seen and these kids I feel will mostly be potheads and poverty will be rampant again. Everyday when I walk into school, I feel scared for our nation. I feel that a lot of them won't vote though. Which is good But I have know idea about the South or West and I know how CXS' friends are going because we have the same friends group and no we aren't socks.

[Classic Conservative]

As someone who is a member of Generation Z. I completely agree with cxs, it will be a nightmare like we haven't seen before. Remember that these are the kids that are being taught by the older part of our current millennials. Thankfully, they don't know anything yet besides, Trump is a racist, bully and I'll move to Canada when I am older and Fox News lies. They really don't care about anything else besides Deez Nuts and Kanye 2020. (They mostly want Kanye because of Kim's pornos which they watch nightly, trust me their love of porn is crazy, let me just say that it's bad) Thankfully their still stuck in their shoes, cute boys, bubble butt and porno stage of life. But, I can safely tell that this will be the most different generation we have ever seen and these kids I feel will mostly be potheads and poverty will be rampant again. Everyday when I walk into school, I feel scared for our nation. I feel that a lot of them won't vote though. Which is good But I have know idea about the South or West, I just know this from my interactions from school, my community and social media.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Thankfully their still stuck in their shoes, cute boys, bubble butt and porno stage of life.=

pardon?

[sg0508]

Gen Z is going to be very independent in their thinking and will likely be similar to Gen X.

1) A lot of them (unfortunately) are illegitimate, growing up in broken households and will not/have not had a traditional upbringing. 

2) Their relationships with their peers and parents aren't necessarily close. 

3) There is probably a high degree of cynicism in their minds to the U.S. and their outlook on life.

4) Financially, many of them are not being given a fair chance (by mom and dad).  Many of these kids are growing up poor and upward mobility in this country is harder than ever as costs of life, including education continue to rise.

It will be very, very interesting.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Color me amused at fourteen-year olds complaining about other fourteen-year olds being vapid and idiotic. Not that they aren't, but A) it's not their fault, we're acculturated to idiocy, B) every generation is awful, not just yours, C) they will "grow up" (in what limited sense that means today), D) you--Classic "Conservative"--go to a private school that, what, costs more than my college? Of course you're going to see awful behavior, these kids haven't been sent to the factories yet like their forebears. If we got your peers some nice manual labor jobs for a few years before putting them into a rigorous higher-learning institution with a stable supply of nicotine, they'd be conscientious, hard-working, and values-driven and we'd have little to worry about.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

As a Gen. Z-er, I can confirm that it will be horrifying.

Could you elaborate? I have this nagging fear that the politics of Generation  Z will be defined by Tumblr-type SJWs vs increasingly openly racist Alt Right types, though the meteoric rise and popularity of Bernie Sanders with our nation's youth gives me hope that an actual Left-Wing Movement that prioritizes building a social safety net and reducing the inequality brought on by globalization may yet emerge.

As part of Gen. Z, this is pretty much what is happening. Those that aren't interested in politics generally say "I don't know/care, as long as it's not Trump". Those that are either tend to fall on either side of the spectrum that you describe, though not to the point of SJW-ism and open racism.
I'm seeing a sharp move to the left with those who take a legitimate interest in politics (like I Side With Bernie Sanders 97% types) - I would say the majority of Democrats in my school prefer Sanders, whether it's because he's anti-establishment or because they are increasingly aligning with his economic views. Of the Republicans, (including myself of course), it's a mixed bag, with some relative moderates generally in favor of Rubio or Jeb, and the more hardline conservatives going for Carson or Cruz. I have yet to meet a legitimate Trump supporter.
It's worth noting that my neighborhood is disproportionately diverse (plenty of Asian, few or no blacks and Hispanics) and went fairly Democratic in 2012 (56% Obama). More and more people of my generation are adhering to the "democratic socialist" line of thought whereas their parents would be establishment Democrats or apolitical.

[RR1997]

I assume that Generation Z will be mostly Democratic because this group is more ethnically diverse than the last one.

 I could also see this group being moderately more Republican than Millennials (but still overwhelmingly Democratic overall) because these people were too young to remember Bush, so they'll hate GOPers significantly less.

What do you define as "overwhelmingly Democratic"?  In 2012, millenials (age 18-29) voted 60-37.  I don't consider anything less than a 20-point margin to truly be overwhelming.  Do you think Gen Z will be 55-45, or 58-42, etc.?

I predict that Gen Z will be around 56-44, which is still "overwhelmingly Democratic" in my opinion, but less so than their Millenial counterparts.

Here's proof that young people are becoming more Republican:

[mquintos]

Agreed on MOST like Gen Z (their parents)
If they could vote they be more inclined to vote for Trump than other generations.

quote author=sg0508 link=topic=229165.msg4918925#msg4918925 date=1455808502]
Gen Z is going to be very independent in their thinking and will likely be similar to Gen X.

1) A lot of them (unfortunately) are illegitimate, growing up in broken households and will not/have not had a traditional upbringing. 

2) Their relationships with their peers and parents aren't necessarily close. 

3) There is probably a high degree of cynicism in their minds to the U.S. and their outlook on life.

4) Financially, many of them are not being given a fair chance (by mom and dad).  Many of these kids are growing up poor and upward mobility in this country is harder than ever as costs of life, including education continue to rise.

It will be very, very interesting.
[/quote]

[Oak Hills]

Here's proof that young people are becoming more Republican:

What are the sample sizes on those numbers though?

[James Bond 007]

It doesn't look good, but it seems like most people's ideologies are formed based on how the country looks when they're first eligible to vote in relation to perception.  For example, those who graduated during the Bush Administration are and will most likely always lean Democratic.  Those who graduated during the Obama Administration will be divided or might lean Republican.  We have yet to see. 

[Seneca]

Here is a helpful table, assuming one's formative years are high school, which shows which high school classes lined up exactly with a presidential administration.

Class of 2004, b. 1985/86 - Bush Jr. I
Class of 2008, b. 1989/90 - Bush Jr. II
Class of 2012, b. 1993/94 - Obama I
Class of 2016, b. 1997/98 - Obama II
Class of 2020, b. 2001/02 - Hillary/Trump

As you can see, the youngest of "Generation Z" have not yet entered their formative phase. So we really have no idea what their politics will be like. Once we know which party will win the presidency, we'll be able to guess their party identification (based on whether we expect the President will be popular or not, which relates to our expectations for the economy and so on).

I propose that there are two major watershed moments dividing "youth" into distinct cohorts. The first is 9/11. Those with substantial, adult-like memories of life and political discourse before the "War on Terror" began likely have very different perspectives from those raised in war time. I would place that cut-off right before the above table, following the logic that 15 is about the age that people become politicized. So the class of 2003 (b. 1985) and before would be part of a separate, pre-war generation.

The second watershed moment, the more important one for this generation, is the financial crisis. Those old enough to have adult-like memories of life, political discourse and economic expectations will almost certainly have very different expectations from those raised in the post-crisis economic malaise. Due to the happy timing of the recession, our cut-off is just between the Bush II and Obama I generations.

The question for our emerging "Generation Z" is whether another watershed moment is just around the corner. If not, we might expect "Generation Z" to share similar voting patterns to the class of 1998 above them. This is particularly interesting for us because the class of 1998 will be going to the polls for the first time this year. That will give us some more hard data to really settle the question.

My personal expectation is that the generation raised under Obama will be less willing to identify as "Democrat" than the Bush generation because of the weak economy that has persisted under Obama. This will only be partially offset by demographic trends which make each successive generation a bit more diverse.

[OneJ]

I am also part of Generation Z (born a couple of months before 9/11). However, I go to a Black school. We pretty much strongly disapprove of Trump (obviously) and we look at President Obama very favorably. I assume everyone pretty much approves of Hillary anyway. Anyways, I think support for particular candidates will be similar to 2008 and 2016 primaries.

White Gen Z'rs are more likely to go flock to a candidate like Sanders. Black Gen Z'rs are more likely to support someone like Clinton. Gen Z'rs, for the most part, don't pay much attention to politics because we're teenagers and kids. You can't really be surprised by something like that.

Thanks to us being more ethnically diverse than Millennials, it is likely that we will overwhelmingly vote Democratic.

[RedVA]

If you would do research, generation z is the most conservative since the silent generation.  Apparently you need to post 20 times to site your sources so I cannot post the links.

[TheSaint250]

I've read that surveys taken of Generation Z Americans show that they are more socially liberal but are also more fiscally conservative, putting them much closer to the Republican Party.  They will definitely boost Republicans' vote totals among younger Americans.

[BuckeyeNut]

To nitpick, Millennials ended in the mid 90's. The oldest of Gen Z voted in 2016. The book belonging to the OP is wrong, or at least out-of-step with many demographers and researchers.

[Person Man]

I've read that surveys taken of Generation Z Americans show that they are more socially liberal but are also more fiscally conservative, putting them much closer to the Republican Party.  They will definitely boost Republicans' vote totals among younger Americans.

If that is the case, it really depends on how much the GOP can use SCOTUS as an alibi on social issues. If they get their originalist majority and issues like LBGT and  Persoonhood/Birth Control end up taking up a lot more of the discourse than Obamacare or taxes on big earners, a push to the right won't materialize at all.

[Technocracy Timmy]

1. The absolute earliest that this generation will be defined as down the line will be the year 2000. 96ers and others like myself are definitely not members of Generation Z.

2. If Millenials are similar to the GI generation (born roughly 1905-1927) in that we came of age and entered the workforce in a post financial crisis economy and vote more strongly for the Democratic Party as a result of that then Generation Z will be similar to the Silent Generation. Like them, they came of age just slightly too young to navigate through the worst that a post financial crisis economy had to offer. The Silent Generation was second only to GI's in their strong support for the Democratic Party so I would expect Generation Z to be more closely aligned with the Democratic Party, but not quite as strongly as millennials.

[BuckeyeNut]

1. The absolute earliest that this generation will be defined as down the line will be the year 2000. 96ers and others like myself are definitely not members of Generation Z.

Gallup, among many others, disagrees.

[Technocracy Timmy]

1. The absolute earliest that this generation will be defined as down the line will be the year 2000. 96ers and others like myself are definitely not members of Generation Z.

Gallup, among many others, disagrees.

I've been called a millennial my whole life. All of my friends (born in 96' or 97' usually) have been called millennials. We all remember the sh**t show that was George Bush, we came of age during the Obama administration, and as a result almost all of us are liberals in one form or another. We're just as liberal as our older siblings born in the 1980's and there's no reason to think we're any different. I share a lot in common with my 32 year old brother and there's no single event that separates us.

As for the start date, there's no agreed upon start date. But plenty of sources say 2000-onwards.

[Blue3]

1. The absolute earliest that this generation will be defined as down the line will be the year 2000. 96ers and others like myself are definitely not members of Generation Z.

Gallup, among many others, disagrees.

I've been called a millennial my whole life. All of my friends (born in 96' or 97' usually) have been called millennials. We all remember the sh**t show that was George Bush, we came of age during the Obama administration, and as a result almost all of us are liberals in one form or another. We're just as liberal as our older siblings born in the 1980's and there's no reason to think we're any different. I share a lot in common with my 32 year old brother and there's no single event that separates us.

As for the start date, there's no agreed upon start date. But plenty of sources say 2000-onwards.

Yes, I've always seen 2000 or 2001 as the cutoff date.

[Figueira]

To nitpick, Millennials ended in the mid 90's. The oldest of Gen Z voted in 2016. The book belonging to the OP is wrong, or at least out-of-step with many demographers and researchers.

2000-2001 is the most common cutoff.

[BuckeyeNut]

1. The absolute earliest that this generation will be defined as down the line will be the year 2000. 96ers and others like myself are definitely not members of Generation Z.

Gallup, among many others, disagrees.

I've been called a millennial my whole life. All of my friends (born in 96' or 97' usually) have been called millennials. We all remember the sh**t show that was George Bush, we came of age during the Obama administration, and as a result almost all of us are liberals in one form or another. We're just as liberal as our older siblings born in the 1980's and there's no reason to think we're any different. I share a lot in common with my 32 year old brother and there's no single event that separates us.

As for the start date, there's no agreed upon start date. But plenty of sources say 2000-onwards.

Being a Millennial isn't about being born near the millennium, it's about December 31st, 1999 being a defining moment in your life time. Similarly, being a member of Gen Z/the iGeneration is about coming up with smart devices and being a "neo-digital native." A lot of people are wrong, but that doesn't make them right.

[Technocracy Timmy]

1. The absolute earliest that this generation will be defined as down the line will be the year 2000. 96ers and others like myself are definitely not members of Generation Z.

Gallup, among many others, disagrees.

I've been called a millennial my whole life. All of my friends (born in 96' or 97' usually) have been called millennials. We all remember the sh**t show that was George Bush, we came of age during the Obama administration, and as a result almost all of us are liberals in one form or another. We're just as liberal as our older siblings born in the 1980's and there's no reason to think we're any different. I share a lot in common with my 32 year old brother and there's no single event that separates us.

As for the start date, there's no agreed upon start date. But plenty of sources say 2000-onwards.

Being a Millennial isn't about being born near the millennium, it's about December 31st, 1999 being a defining moment in your life time. Similarly, being a member of Gen Z/the iGeneration is about coming up with smart devices and being a "neo-digital native." A lot of people are wrong, but that doesn't make them right.

9/11 was a far far more important event than people getting excessively hammered on one New Years Eve. Same goes for the Iraq war or the 2008 financial crisis.

Also by your logic even some elderly people who lived long enough to survive into the next century would consider that a defining moment in their lives. So how's that a cutoff?