Republican New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET)

[Mr. Morden]

The polls in the midnight voting towns have already closed.  See discussion here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=228635.0

The timeline for the rest of the day is as follows:

http://news.yahoo.com/next-hampshire-set-vote-nations-first-primary-191020021--election.html

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At 5pm, the networks will be given access to the early exit poll numbers.  So some time between about 5:15 and 5:30pm or so, we’ll start getting news reports from them about things like what percentage of the voters are Independents, what the top issues on voters’ minds are, etc.  But they’ll withhold the topline numbers (who is winning the exit poll) until after all the polls have closed at 8pm.

Of course, we’ll also have turnout reports throughout the day.

CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/nh/

AP: link

New Hampshire Secretary of State: http://sos.nh.gov/2016ElecInfo.aspx

[This account no longer in use.]

Over/under:

Trump: 31.5
Rubio: 14.5
Kasich: 12.5
Cruz: 12.5
Bush: 10.5
Christie: 5.5
Fiorina: 4.5
Carson: 2.5
Gilmore: 0.5

[Beezer]

Would be awesome if low energy "please clap" ¿Jeb? came in 2nd.

[Mr. Morden]

The polls have opened in Manchester:

https://twitter.com/WMUR9/status/697017830366146560

[Eraserhead]

When should we start seeing stuff from the early exits? 5 PMish ET?

[/]

For some reason, CNN has Rick Santorum on its front page montage.

[Classic Conservative]

So on FOX and Friends they were at a diner with ¡Jeb! and they were asking the people next the Jeb! who they voted for and they said Kasich #KasichMentum

[Mr. Morden]

When should we start seeing stuff from the early exits? 5 PMish ET?

The consortium conducting the exit poll doesn't show the networks any of their results until 5pm.  Any supposed leaks on Drudge or whatever from earlier than that are fake.  After 5pm, the various media outlets start writing stories based on what the exit polls are saying.  So the first wave of stories on the exit polls should start appearing around 5:15, 5:20, or something like that.

However, those initial stories will *not* be about who is winning.  They'll be things like "Here are the top issues on voters' minds", etc.  Maybe, if we're lucky, they'll tell us what % of the electorate in each primary is Independents.

As time goes on, the networks might start spilling things like which candidate is winning a particular demographic, but they won't give us the full exit poll until 8pm.  Historically, I think Fox News Channel tends to be the most willing to give you details like who's winning which demographic.  But I guess we'll have to wait and see.  Not clear yet how generous the network news gods will be with their exit data.

[Mr. Morden]

Gilmore predicts a "surprising" finish for himself:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/jim-gilmore-predicts-a-surprising-finish-in-n.h./article/2582765?custom_click=rss

[eric82oslo]

Over/under:

Trump: 31.5 Under
Rubio: 14.5 Over
Kasich: 12.5 Over
Cruz: 12.5 Hard one, maybe slightly under
Bush: 10.5 Over
Christie: 5.5 Over
Fiorina: 4.5 Under
Carson: 2.5 Under
Gilmore: 0.5 Under

[Miles]

We're on the ground here with the Decision Desk working on our exit survey, which we'll have out later, and we'll have the first calls as usual.

[Higgs]

Over/under:

Trump: 31.5 Under
Rubio: 14.5 Over
Kasich: 12.5 Over
Cruz: 12.5 Over
Bush: 10.5 Over
Christie: 5.5 Over
Fiorina: 4.5 Under
Carson: 2.5 Under
Gilmore: 0.5 Under

[Shadows]

Hello Republican Supporters/Friends - You can check the results in here, intial trends have started coming in but we are likely to get a clear picture after 5-6 hours. Not even 1% of the results have come in

https://www.washingtonpost.com/2016-election-results/new-hampshire/

http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/

Have fun following your favorite candidate. Best wishes!

[Wells]

Over/under:

Trump: 31.5
Rubio: 14.5
Kasich: 12.5
Cruz: 12.5
Bush: 10.5
Christie: 5.5
Fiorina: 4.5
Carson: 2.5
Gilmore: 0.5

Trump: under
Rubio: under
Kasich: over
Cruz: over
Bush: under
Christie: over
Fiorina: under
Carson: over
Gilmore: under

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I think Trump will be under 30%

In other news the NH SOS is predicting 65% turnout

[PresidentTRUMP]

How will the reports from NH come out usually? At 8 will we see the final results? Or will it be like Iowa, around 8 PM the results will slowly start coming in and the percentage of the vote that is in will slowly come in throughout the night showing how much each candidate has received like Iowa did?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

How will the reports from NH come out usually? At 8 will we see the final results? Or will it be like Iowa, around 8 PM the results will slowly start coming in and the percentage of the vote that is in will slowly come in throughout the night showing how much each candidate has received like Iowa did?

By 7:30 we should have a fair amount of the vote in and we should have an idea who won on each side. At 8 pm is when the final polls close and most likely is when the races will be called

[PresidentTRUMP]

How will the reports from NH come out usually? At 8 will we see the final results? Or will it be like Iowa, around 8 PM the results will slowly start coming in and the percentage of the vote that is in will slowly come in throughout the night showing how much each candidate has received like Iowa did?

By 7:30 we should have a fair amount of the vote in and we should have an idea who won on each side. At 8 pm is when the final polls close and most likely is when the races will be called

Okay, sounds good, thank you!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

They're predicting 550,000 people to vote on both sides today

[The Free North]

They're predicting 550,000 people to vote on both sides today

700k turned out for the 2012 election

[Bacon King]

For some reason, CNN has Rick Santorum on its front page montage.

I pick the dashing fellow in the bottom right corner

[Phony Moderate]

They're predicting 550,000 people to vote on both sides today

So 1.1 million overall?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

They're predicting 550,000 people to vote on both sides today

So 1.1 million overall?

Sorry, meant 550,000 total people voting today.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Appears Fiorina is staying in regardless of tonight's results: https://mobile.twitter.com/CarlyFiorina/status/697084563139358720

[PresidentTRUMP]

Appears Fiorina is staying in regardless of tonight's results: https://mobile.twitter.com/CarlyFiorina/status/697084563139358720

Well its become obvious if she gets 3 or 4% she is only staying in and for as long as she can to get her name out there. She's a joke.