Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)

[jaichind]

here are numbers from 2008 for comparisons
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/IA.html

All these exit polls/entrance polls are often adjusted afterwards to match the real results.  But I did recall that back in 2008 Obama did lead the entrance polls for Iowa.

[Tender Branson]

here are numbers from 2008 for comparisons
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/IA.html

All these exit polls/entrance polls are often adjusted afterwards to match the real results.  But I did recall that back in 2008 Obama did lead the entrance polls for Iowa.

CNN just said Clinton led the early entrance poll in 2008.

[Landslide Lyndon]

here are numbers from 2008 for comparisons
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/IA.html

All these exit polls/entrance polls are often adjusted afterwards to match the real results.  But I did recall that back in 2008 Obama did lead the entrance polls for Iowa.

CNN just said Clinton led the early entrance poll in 2008.

They obviously don't know what they are talking about. I remember too that in 2008 Obama was leading the entrance polls by 3-4 points.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

here are numbers from 2008 for comparisons
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/IA.html

All these exit polls/entrance polls are often adjusted afterwards to match the real results.  But I did recall that back in 2008 Obama did lead the entrance polls for Iowa.

CNN just said Clinton led the early entrance poll in 2008.

She did, but you also had a larger number of candidates all of whom shifted en masse to Obama.

[Eraserhead]

So what should the margin be if the poll actually holds up?

[Fusionmunster]

here are numbers from 2008 for comparisons
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/IA.html

All these exit polls/entrance polls are often adjusted afterwards to match the real results.  But I did recall that back in 2008 Obama did lead the entrance polls for Iowa.

CNN just said Clinton led the early entrance poll in 2008.

She did, but you also had a larger number of candidates all of whom shifted en masse to Obama.

Yeah, the reason Edwards and Obama were underpolled as much as they were is because both Biden and Richardson were polling at 7%.

[Broken System]

It seems O'Malley's strongest demographic is married men.

[Antonio the Sixth]

When will actual results start trickling in?

[Illiniwek]

Don't care about 2008, I'm feeling good about Hillary. Let's gooooo!

[yourelection]

here are numbers from 2008 for comparisons
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/IA.html

All these exit polls/entrance polls are often adjusted afterwards to match the real results.  But I did recall that back in 2008 Obama did lead the entrance polls for Iowa.

CNN just said Clinton led the early entrance poll in 2008.

She did, but you also had a larger number of candidates all of whom shifted en masse to Obama.

If I understand caucuses correctly, people can change who they vote for in the course of the night.

[SunSt0rm]

CBS Entrance Poll

Clinton 51%
Sanders 42%

[IceSpear]

So what should the margin be if the poll actually holds up?

50-43

[Tender Branson]

When will actual results start trickling in?

Well, it seems they are starting the caucus late in several locations to crowd in the people in line into the sites.

Then there's the debating and vote counting.

Maybe another hour or so for actual results.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So what should the margin be if the poll actually holds up?

50-43

O'Malley can't keep all 7% silly, 15% viability rule and all.

[exopolitician]

CBS Entrance Poll

Clinton 51%
Sanders 42%

Damn

[Fusionmunster]

So what should the margin be if the poll actually holds up?

50-43

O'Malley can't keep all 7% silly, 15% viability rule and all.

Arent you allowed to vote undeclared?

[IceSpear]

So what should the margin be if the poll actually holds up?

50-43

O'Malley can't keep all 7% silly, 15% viability rule and all.

The remaining 7% was split between O'Malley and "uncommitted"

[Mr. Morden]

When will actual results start trickling in?

Based on past caucuses, results should start coming in about 30-40 minutes after the top of the hour, or between 10 and 20 minutes from now.

[Tender Branson]

CNN is just reporting a caucus site where a Bernie supporter just came in to the site as #400 (they expcted 250) and it's already 20 minutes after 7pm ...

[Admiral Kizaru]

[Likely Voter]

So what should the margin be if the poll actually holds up?

50-43

O'Malley can't keep all 7% silly, 15% viability rule and all.

Arent you allowed to vote undeclared?

Yes but undeclared has the same 15% viability threshold. If less than 15% are undecided they have to pick a candidate or not vote for anyone.   Undeclared actually has won the Dem caucus in the past.

[Hydera]

So what should the margin be if the poll actually holds up?

50-43

Hope it stays 50% so O'malley voters can't save Sanders.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

CBS Entrance Poll

Clinton 51%
Sanders 42%

Damn

Entrance polls are extremely flaky, especially the early ones. Don't read too much into this.

[Tender Branson]

The people that are now coming in are looking good for the Bernie camp.

I'm pretty sure that the entrance poll is off by a lot ...

[Fusionmunster]

CBS entrance poll
First time caucus goers for the dems:

59% for Sanders
39% for Clinton