Predict the Iowa Caucus Results
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Author Topic: Predict the Iowa Caucus Results  (Read 11262 times)
Broken System
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« Reply #25 on: January 31, 2016, 02:50:10 PM »
Republicans

Donald Trump: 23.1%
Ted Cruz: 23.6%
Marco Rubio: 23.1%
Ben Carson: 8.1%
Rand Paul: 7.0%
Jeb Bush: 2.7%
John Kasich: 1.2%
Chris Christie: 3.1%
Carly Fiorina: 2.9%
Mike Huckabee: 1.4%
Rick Santorum: 3.3%
Jim Gilmore: 0.2%

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 50.9%
Bernie Sanders: 48.6%
Martin O'Malley: 0.2%
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Pyro
PyroTheFox
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« Reply #26 on: January 31, 2016, 02:58:47 PM »
Republicans

Donald Trump: 29%
Ted Cruz: 26%
Marco Rubio: 24%
Ben Carson: 7%
Rand Paul: 6%
Jeb Bush: 2%
John Kasich: 1%
Chris Christie: 1%
Carly Fiorina: 1%
Mike Huckabee: 1%
Jim Gilmore: 1%
Rick Santorum: <1%

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 49%
Bernie Sanders: 48%
Martin O'Malley: 3%
(O'Malley votes then push Sanders to 50%)
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #27 on: January 31, 2016, 03:11:21 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2016, 04:35:16 PM by Helsinkian »
Republican Party

Cruz 27
Trump 25
Rubio 17
Carson 7
Paul 6
Bush 4
Huckabee 4
Christie 3
Kasich 3
Fiorina 2
Santorum 2
Gilmore 0

Democratic Party

Clinton 49
Sanders 47
O'Malley 4
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Senator Spark
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« Reply #28 on: January 31, 2016, 03:14:43 PM »
Republicans

Donald Trump: 15%
Ted Cruz: 21%
Marco Rubio: 23%
Ben Carson: 12%
Rand Paul: 6%
Jeb Bush: 4%
John Kasich: 7%
Chris Christie: 3%
Carly Fiorina: 3%
Mike Huckabee: 5%
Rick Santorum: <1%
Jim Gilmore: 0%

Democrats (with O'Malley votes reallocated)

Hillary Clinton: 49%
Bernie Sanders: 51%
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #29 on: January 31, 2016, 03:23:10 PM »
Trump: 27%
Rubio: 22%
Cruz: 20%
Carson: 10%
Paul: 7%
Bush: 4%
Huckabee: 4%
Kasich: 3%
Christie: 2%
Fiorina: 1%
Santorum: <1%
Gilmore: <1%

Sanders: 53%
Clinton: 45%
O'Malley: 1%
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #30 on: January 31, 2016, 03:27:04 PM »
D
Sanders 51
Clinton 49
O'Malley 0

R
Trump 30
Cruz 25
Rubio 18
Carson 7
Paul 5
Bush 4
Huckabee 3
Kasich 3
Christie 3
Fiorina 1
Santorum 1
Gilmore 0
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Maxwell
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« Reply #31 on: January 31, 2016, 03:31:41 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2016, 03:39:51 PM by Maxwell »
I posted this elsewhere but hell posting it here:

Republicans
Donald Trump: 35%
Marco Rubio: 21%
Ted Cruz: 16%
Rand Paul: 10%
Ben Carson: 5%
Jeb Bush: 5%
Chris Christie: 3%
Mike Huckabee: 2%
Carly Fiorina: 1%
Rick Santorum: 1%
John Kasich: 1%
Jim Gilmore: 0%
Others: 0%

Trump has gained 6 points since the last Selzer poll, the most of anyone, so I suspect he will ride that momentum to a solid double digit victory. Rubio gets the media/consolation prize of second place, while Cruz freefalls into third place. Most of Cruz's fall is to Paul's benefit, who reaches close to/at 10% (along a negligible amount of former Ben Carson supporters).

Democrats
Clinton: 49.5%
Sanders: 49%
O'Malley: 1.5%

Thanks to the process, O'Malley's 7% in the PPP poll will deflate to 1.5%. Sanders will perform above expectations but still lose to Hillary Clinton, possibly by tens of votes in my personal opinion.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #32 on: January 31, 2016, 03:32:02 PM »
Trump 30
Cruz 23
Rubio 16
Carson 9
Paul 6
Bush 4
Huckabee 3
Kasich 3
Christie 2
Santorum 2
Fiorina 2
Gilmore 0

Clinton 52
Sanders 47
O'Malley 1
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Orthogonian Society Treasurer
CommanderClash
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« Reply #33 on: January 31, 2016, 03:35:42 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2016, 03:38:19 PM by clash »
GOP:

Trump: 35%
Cruz: 24%
Rubio: 19%
Paul: 7%
Bush: 4%
Carson: 4%
Huckabee: 3%
Christie: 2%
Santorum: 1%
Fiorina: 1%
Gilmore: 0%

Dems:

Clinton: 51%
Sanders: 48%
O'Malley: 1%
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heatcharger
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« Reply #34 on: January 31, 2016, 03:45:25 PM »
Republicans
Ted Cruz: 24.5%
Donald Trump: 24%
Marco Rubio: 17.5%
Ben Carson: 13%
Rand Paul: 5%
Jeb Bush: 5%
Chris Christie: 3%
Carly Fiorina: 2%
John Kasich: 2%
Mike Huckabee: 2%
Rick Santorum: 2%
Jim Gilmore: 0%

Democrats (After O'Malley redistribution)
Bernie Sanders: 50.5%
Hillary Clinton 49.5%
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The Free North
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« Reply #35 on: January 31, 2016, 04:30:42 PM »
Looking good so far, picks have been updated, I may have some stats out later tonight (depending on if I have enough time or not).
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #36 on: January 31, 2016, 04:39:50 PM »
^^ Just so you know I edited mine just a few hours ago
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #37 on: January 31, 2016, 04:43:18 PM »
REPUBLICANS

Cruz 27%
Trump 24%
Rubio 19%
Paul 10%
Carson 7%
Bush 5%
Huckabee 3%
Christie 2%
Kasich 1%
Fiorina 1%
Santorum 1%
Gilmore 0%

DEMOCRATS

Sanders 50%
Clinton 49%
O'Malley 1%
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The Free North
CTRattlesnake
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« Reply #38 on: January 31, 2016, 05:01:21 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on January 31, 2016, 04:39:50 PM
^^ Just so you know I edited mine just a few hours ago

I'll double check, thanks.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #39 on: January 31, 2016, 05:08:58 PM »
Quote from: (CT) The Free North on January 31, 2016, 05:01:21 PM
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on January 31, 2016, 04:39:50 PM
^^ Just so you know I edited mine just a few hours ago

I'll double check, thanks.

Also, I have Cruz at 27 and Trump at 25, not the other way around.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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« Reply #40 on: January 31, 2016, 05:15:28 PM »
The Democratic results are not reported so who care (Are we doing % of delegates??? I seriously don't care about a non-competitive Democratic race still)
Hillary 54%
Bernie 45%
O'Malley <1

TRUMP 31
Cruz 24
Rubio 14
Carson 11
Huckabee 5
Paul 5
Christie 4
Bush 3
Santorum 2
Kasich <1
Gilmore <1
Fiorina <1
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VPH
vivaportugalhabs
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« Reply #41 on: January 31, 2016, 05:25:36 PM »
Democrats
1. Clinton: 49%
2. Sanders: 48%
3. O'Malley: 3%

Republican
1. Trump: 27%
2. Cruz: 26%
3. Rubio: 19%
4. Carson: 8%
5. Paul: 5%
6. Bush: 4%
7. Huckabee: 4%
8. Kasich: 3%
9. Christie: 2%
10. Santorum: 2%
11. Fiorina: 0%
12. Gilmore: 0%
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OkThen
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« Reply #42 on: January 31, 2016, 05:27:07 PM »
Republicans

Donald Trump: 30%
Ted Cruz: 27%
Marco Rubio: 16%
Ben Carson: 9%
Rand Paul: 5%
Jeb Bush: 3%
Mike Huckabee: 3%
Chris Christie: 2%
John Kasich: 2%
Carly Fiorina: 2%
Rick Santorum: 1%
Jim Gilmore: 0%

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 51%
Bernie Sanders: 48%
Martin O'Malley: 1%
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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« Reply #43 on: January 31, 2016, 05:45:57 PM »
GOP
TRUMP    27
Cruz        24
Rubio      14
Carson    10
Paul         7
Christie    4
Jeb          4
Huckabee 3
Kasich      3
Santorum 2
Carly        1
Gilmore    1


DEM
Sanders  50
Clinton   48
O'Malley   2
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Spamage
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« Reply #44 on: January 31, 2016, 06:17:03 PM »
Republicans

Donald Trump: 30%
Ted Cruz: 25%
Marco Rubio: 16%
Ben Carson: 8%
Rand Paul: 8%
Jeb Bush: 5%
Chris Christie: 4%
John Kasich: 3%
Carly Fiorina: 1%
Mike Huckabee: 1%
Rick Santorum: .1%
Jim Gilmore: .1%

Democrats


Hillary Clinton: 50%
Bernie Sanders: 49%
Martin O'Malley: 1%
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Holmes
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« Reply #45 on: January 31, 2016, 06:31:41 PM »
Republicans

Donald Trump: 31
Ted Cruz: 25
Marco Rubio: 17
Ben Carson: 10
Rand Paul: 6
Jeb Bush: 4
John Kasich: 1
Chris Christie: 2
Carly Fiorina: 1
Mike Huckabee: 2
Rick Santorum: 1
Jim Gilmore: 0

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 52
Bernie Sanders: 45
Martin O'Malley: 3
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DKrol
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« Reply #46 on: January 31, 2016, 07:51:35 PM »
Republicans

Ted Cruz: 27%
Donald Trump: 22%
Marco Rubio: 14%
Rand Paul: 10%
Ben Carson: 7%
Jeb Bush: 4%
Mike Huckabee: 4%
John Kasich: 3%
Chris Christie: 3%
Carly Fiorina: 3%
Rick Santorum: 2%
Jim Gilmore: 1%

Democrats

Bernie Sanders: 51%
Hillary Clinton: 47%
Martin O'Malley: 2%
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Trapsy
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« Reply #47 on: January 31, 2016, 07:55:57 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2016, 08:05:03 PM by Trapsy »
Republicans
Trump: 30%
Cruz: 29%
Rubio: 15%
Carson: 10%
Paul: 5%
Bush: 3%
Kasich: 3%
Christie: 2%
Huckabee: 1%
Santorum: 1%
Fiorina: 1%
Gilmore: 0%

Dems
Clinton: 52%
Sanders: 45%
O'Malley: 3%
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DanPrazeres
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« Reply #48 on: January 31, 2016, 08:07:42 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2016, 08:14:51 PM by DanPrazeres »
Republicans

Donald Trump: 27
Ted Cruz: 23
Marco Rubio: 21
Ben Carson: 9
Rand Paul: 7
Jeb Bush: 6
John Kasich: 2
Chris Christie: 1
Carly Fiorina: 1
Mike Huckabee: 2
Rick Santorum: 1
Jim Gilmore: 0

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 49
Bernie Sanders: 49
Martin O'Malley: 2
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #49 on: January 31, 2016, 08:09:44 PM »
Cruz- 31
Trump- 24
Rubio- 22
Carson- 8

Clinton- 54
Sanders- 45
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