Selzer/DMR/Bloomberg FINAL IOWA POLL: Trump +5, Clinton +3

[Holmes]

[Holmes]

Sheesa win

[Holmes]

The poll shows Clinton's supporters as more firm in their support and more enthusiastic.

[Holmes]

Selzer: "No discernable direction that O'Malley supporters will go, due to extremely small sample size (15 people)."

lmao 15 people

[Holmes]

Sanders is hurt by the fact that the caucus system penalizes his demographics - who are clustered on college campuses and in urban areas in general - while Clinton benefits from a larger than proportionate share of delegates being allocated to rural counties and caucus sites.

Is it true that, college towns aside, Sanders's support is more concentrated in urban areas than Clinton's support is?  I haven't seen evidence that it is.  See the discussion in this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=227529.0

I think a better thing to consider rather than "urban center vs. rural/suburban" is the amount of young, college students. In terms of urban centers, can see Clinton being strong in the counties and cities along the Mississippi river (save Dubuque) and in the Des Moines metro area, and maybe Council Bluffs, but Sanders is probably strong in Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, Ames...

And who knows, Sanders is probably strong in some random rural areas as well. It'll be interesting to see the map.

[Holmes]

Honestly if Clinton and Trump pull it off here, the subsequent primary and caucus schedule looks so favorable for the both of them (save New Hampshire for Clinton) that it doesn't even matter how favorable or enthusiastic people are for them, they'll very likely be the nominees.