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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
  Selzer/DMR/Bloomberg FINAL IOWA POLL: Trump +5, Clinton +3
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Author Topic: Selzer/DMR/Bloomberg FINAL IOWA POLL: Trump +5, Clinton +3  (Read 6166 times)
Lyin' Steve
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« on: January 30, 2016, 06:47:07 pm »
« edited: January 30, 2016, 06:49:32 pm by SteveMcQueen »

Gold standard of Iowa polling:

TRUMPUBLICANS
Trump 28
Cruz 23
Rubio 15
Carson 10
Paul 5
Christie 3
Bush 2
Fiorina 2
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
Santorum 2
Gilmore 0
Not Sure/Uncommitted 5

HILLOCRATS
Clinton 45
Sanders 42
O'Malley 3
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Holmes
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« Reply #1 on: January 30, 2016, 06:52:39 pm »

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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2 on: January 30, 2016, 06:55:01 pm »

RUBIOMENTUM!!!!!!!!
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #3 on: January 30, 2016, 06:55:25 pm »

Sheesa win Azn
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Holmes
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« Reply #4 on: January 30, 2016, 06:56:06 pm »


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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #5 on: January 30, 2016, 06:57:27 pm »

Lol it's a 3 point lead Shillarys calm down.
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Lyin' Steve
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« Reply #6 on: January 30, 2016, 06:57:33 pm »

As a reminder, DMR's final pre-Iowa poll in 2012:

Romney 24
Paul 22
Santorum 15
Gingirch 12
Perry 11
Bachmann 7
Huntsman 2
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: January 30, 2016, 06:58:21 pm »

About what I expected. Not quite comfortable enough to feel confident. But it's great to know that Quinnipiac is out on a ledge now.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #8 on: January 30, 2016, 06:58:28 pm »

You know, it's not exactly a disaster for Bernie.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #9 on: January 30, 2016, 06:58:39 pm »

As a reminder, DMR's final pre-Iowa poll in 2012:

Romney 24
Paul 22
Santorum 15
Gingirch 12
Perry 11
Bachmann 7
Huntsman 2

Yes it's all about momentum.
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The Hunt for the Red October Surprise
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #10 on: January 30, 2016, 07:00:17 pm »

Sucks to be Bush.

The talking heads (and Selzer) said that Rubio is doing well as a second choice. He could over perform like they said. Take a few percent here and there and suddenly you're within 5% of the lead. I'm still leaning Trump in terms of who will win.

A 3% lead is within the MoE for Dems. 3% for O'Malley could be the deciding factor. I'm still ever so slightly thinking that Bernie will win. My odds: 51 Bernie, 49 Hillary
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #11 on: January 30, 2016, 07:01:31 pm »

For all the hype for this poll, it doesn't seem to tell me anything new about the race.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: January 30, 2016, 07:02:06 pm »

As a reminder, DMR's final pre-Iowa poll in 2012:

Romney 24
Paul 22
Santorum 15
Gingirch 12
Perry 11
Bachmann 7
Huntsman 2

Yes it's all about momentum.

Their last poll had Clinton up 2. Unless you're referring to the Republican side.
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Holmes
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« Reply #13 on: January 30, 2016, 07:02:24 pm »

The poll shows Clinton's supporters as more firm in their support and more enthusiastic.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #14 on: January 30, 2016, 07:02:43 pm »

New York sweep on Monday imho
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cxs018
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« Reply #15 on: January 30, 2016, 07:03:11 pm »

From DMR's previous poll:

Trump +6
Rubio +3
Santorum +1
Paul 0
Christie 0
Kasich 0
Fiorina 0
Gilmore 0
Carson -1
Huckabee -1
Cruz -2
Bush -2

Clinton +3
Sanders +2
O'Malley -1
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: January 30, 2016, 07:03:35 pm »

Selzer: "No discernable direction that O'Malley supporters will go, due to extremely small sample size (15 people)."
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #17 on: January 30, 2016, 07:04:35 pm »

When was the fieldwork done?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #18 on: January 30, 2016, 07:05:29 pm »

Lol it's a 3 point lead Shillarys calm down.

So now you know what people look like freaking out about Overtime. Except, you know, this lot know Iowa and it's still important. But it's still IA and no one knows how this BS will turn out.
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cxs018
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« Reply #19 on: January 30, 2016, 07:06:17 pm »

Lol it's a 3 point lead Shillarys calm down.

So now you know what people look like freaking out about Overtime. Except, you know, this lot know Iowa and it's still important. But it's still IA and no one knows how this BS will turn out.

Nobody has ever freaked out about Overtime. Give me one example.
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Higgs
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« Reply #20 on: January 30, 2016, 07:06:32 pm »

As a reminder, DMR's final pre-Iowa poll in 2012:

Romney 24
Paul 22
Santorum 15
Gingirch 12
Perry 11
Bachmann 7
Huntsman 2

"Gold standard"
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Holmes
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« Reply #21 on: January 30, 2016, 07:07:14 pm »

Selzer: "No discernable direction that O'Malley supporters will go, due to extremely small sample size (15 people)."

lmao 15 people
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YPestis25
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« Reply #22 on: January 30, 2016, 07:07:27 pm »

The poll shows Clinton's supporters as more firm in their support and more enthusiastic.

That really stood out to me too. I'm trying to open the PDF, but it won't load. Does anyone know how firm and how enthusiastic Bernie's support is?
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #23 on: January 30, 2016, 07:08:24 pm »

Christie ahead of Bush! But Trump.......
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cxs018
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« Reply #24 on: January 30, 2016, 07:08:29 pm »

As a reminder, DMR's final pre-Iowa poll in 2012:

Romney 24
Paul 22
Santorum 15
Gingirch 12
Perry 11
Bachmann 7
Huntsman 2

"Gold standard"

They weren't far off. They just overestimated Bachmann/Huntsman and underestimated Frothy.
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