Predict a county map of Clinton vs Sanders in California

[ElectionsGuy]

Green - Sanders
Red - Clinton

Clinton - 56%
Sanders - 43%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bernie takes most of the coast Santa Barbara and further north, as well as interior Northern California/Sierras, plus San Diego. Hillary takes Central Valley, LA, Orange, and inland Empire.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Bernie would perform better then Obama.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Clinton - 56%
Sanders - 41%
O'Malley - 2%
Others - 1%

This is assuming that the race is still competitive. CA is not that great of a state for Bernie due to the large minority populations, which hurt him in the major population centers and the Central Valley. He'll do well in rural Northern CA, counties with large amounts of college kids, and some parts of the Bay Area.

By the time the election actually rolls around, I think that Bernie would be lucky to win a county.

[ElectionsGuy]

Clinton - 52%
Sanders - 47%

[Sbane]

Clinton - 52%
Sanders - 47%

Give Clinton Solano County and the San Joaquin valley and I would agree. I would flip El Dorado as well. Monterey and Santa Barbara should be very close. Of course I believe Clinton will win by about 10 points.

[Holmes]

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Clinton - 52%
Sanders - 47%

[Sbane]

That's pretty much my map, Holmes.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Here is one
Yellow Hillary Clinton
Green Bernie Sanders

[Holmes]

Can't really see Clinton winning Inyo, Lassen, Yolo, Colusa, Glenn, Sutter and Yuba.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Here's the original for those who can't see it.



Here's an updated version that should be visible (stupid imgur).

I'm still betting on a 4-7% margin for Clinton like I have been for the last couple of months.

Democrats: Bernie in Green, Hillary in Red

Hillary will win by 4-7%

From a few weeks ago. I may change it if I see any more regional polling.

[Xing]

Clinton wins 53-47

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Let's look at what the map may look like IF Bernie wins CA. Clinton won it by 8.3% in 2008. I'll go a bit beyond that and use a full ten-point uniform swing away from Clinton. To clarify, this means that if she won a county by 20 points in 2008, I'd adjust it to a 10 point win for her in 2016.

Here's the 2008 county map. Clinton in red, Obama in green.



And with a 10 point swing to Sanders/Obama (disregarding the margin in each county):



Of course, Sanders and Obama don't have exactly the same appeal. So flip that northern strip of Clinton counties to Sanders, and flip San Diego to Clinton, to get a more realistic looking result.

[Xing]

^I don't see how Sanders wins Alameda, though, since Oakland should be quite strong for Clinton.

[Holmes]

^I don't see how Sanders wins Alameda, though, since Oakland should be quite strong for Clinton.

And Solano, which will probably be Clinton's second best county after Imperial.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

^I don't see how Sanders wins Alameda, though, since Oakland should be quite strong for Clinton.

And Solano, which will probably be Clinton's second best county after Imperial.

I think that Imperial will be De La Fuente's best county (not that he'll break 2% there).

Solano will definitely be a good county for Clinton.

[Hnv1]

I don't think Sanders takes SF

[politicallefty]

I think that's probably the general feel of things right now, though there could be several anomalous counties. Despite the polling having the race so close, I think Hillary will win California by high single digits (I'm thinking a 7% victory right now, pretty close to 2008).

One county where I really disagree with you is Marin. I'm familiar with it and I just don't see Hillary winning it. In fact, I think it could be Bernie's best county in the Bay Area. I could also see Alameda going either way. As far as gains from 2008, I think Hillary will definitely win Sacramento. I also think it's possible she wins Placer. If the race is indeed as close as some polls say, it'll be your map, but Hillary will lose at least Marin and Alameda. She could also lose more of the Bay Area and struggle more in the Central Valley (not including Sacramento).

As for best county for each, I think it'll be Imperial again for Hillary. As for Bernie, if it's not Santa Cruz, it'll either be Humboldt or some small county in CA-01.

[NOVA Green]

Here's a map of what a hypothetical 51-49 Bernie win might look like.



I think we should see a heavy swing away from Hillary in much of rural-small town regions along the North Coast and areas closer to the Oregon border, as well as places in the Sierra Nevada foothills. All of these are regions where John Edwards performed quite well in the '08 primaries, and we saw similar areas in Oregon swing heavily away from Hillary in a two person race in '16.

Although Bernie should net a moderate vote margin overall in rural and smaller population centers, ultimately he would need to also net some additional vote margins in the Bay Area, Sacramento, and Orange/San Diego to offset Hillary vote margins in LA County and the Inland Empire  (San Bernadino/Riverside).

Regarding Marin, which has been a hotly discussed topic recently regarding the primary, I find it difficult to see her 4th worst county in the state (37.8% in '08) with a very large population of extremely liberal Democrats swinging to far in her direction, regardless of her solid performance with higher-income Democrats throughout the primary season.

As I stated on another thread, the Bay Area in particular should be extremely interesting comparing '08 vs '16 with some dramatic swings throughout the region, so I could still see a hypothetical where Alameda goes Bernie and Santa Clara Clinton, but both within close margins

Regardless, I find it difficult to see how Bernie could win California, without winning the Bay Area at least marginally, even if Hillary's 250k vote lead in LA/Riverside/San Bernardino in '08 drops by 25-30%, and there are some narrow offsets from San Diego and Orange.

Sacramento could go either way and should stay within 5 point margin on either side, with Hillary likely gaining among segments of the population that supported Obama in '08 and losing other parts of her voting base.

[ElectionsGuy]

Good job Holmes on the best map. Mine was atrocious.

[Hnv1]

I don't think Sanders takes SF

Ehmm

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I'm pretty sure that there's still a boat load of mail in ballots to be counted, so counties may flip. I wouldn't be surprised if Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispos, and maybe Yolo flip.

[Holmes]

Good job Holmes on the best map. Mine was atrocious.

Thanks. I didn't think Clinton would do so well in Placer (suburban Sacramento) and Yolo (UC Davis). I think Santa Barbara will flip as the late mail-in vote comes in, and San Luis Obispo and Sonoma might as well, but probably not.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Good job Holmes on the best map. Mine was atrocious.

Thanks. I didn't think Clinton would do so well in Placer (suburban Sacramento) and Yolo (UC Davis). I think Santa Barbara will flip as the late mail-in vote comes in, and San Luis Obispo and Sonoma might as well, but probably not.

Yolo resident here. I'm somewhat shocked, but UC Davis has finals this week, so that might've reduced student turnout. It could still flip with mail ins. Also, a lot of the students could be registered back home.