"The most accurate political bellwether in the country"
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  "The most accurate political bellwether in the country"
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Author Topic: "The most accurate political bellwether in the country"  (Read 489 times)
Adam the Gr8
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« on: January 30, 2016, 04:03:32 PM »
« edited: January 30, 2016, 04:23:45 PM by Adam the Gr8 »

I present to you WIU's Mock Presidential Election, the most accurate political bellwether in the country!
AND their, clearly accurate, prediction!
 
Sanders/O'Malley: 404
Bush/Rubio: 114


This has to be a joke, right? I even plugged in the states and the prediction's map and EV count don't even match up.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: January 30, 2016, 04:05:46 PM »

Wow, Maryland truly must hate O'Malley.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #2 on: January 30, 2016, 04:08:59 PM »

Yeah, this has been going around for months. Supposedly, they have a perfect track record of picking the eventual nominees of each party going back to 1975, but when I looked, I could only find examples of their mock poll results published online for 2007 and 2011. I wasn't even able to find that specific claim on WIU's site.

In their defense, I don't think they ever claimed that their electoral projections state-by-state are accurate (I believe those votes are determined based on the student voters' states of origin), but I have had more than one infuriating conversation on social media with Sanders supporters over how there's no way in hell that Sanders wins WY and a dozen other states while losing IL, MD & HI.

At any rate, I think they're going to be wrong this cycle, even if their track record of accuracy goes back as long as some have claimed.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
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« Reply #3 on: January 30, 2016, 04:10:38 PM »



I like how Bush carries Illinois but loses Utah.
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cxs018
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« Reply #4 on: January 30, 2016, 04:11:42 PM »

If you look at the vote numbers, Lex Green does have a ridiculous percentage.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #5 on: January 30, 2016, 04:12:08 PM »

Sanders will DOMINATE the map! Bush will COWER IN FEAR!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: January 30, 2016, 04:13:47 PM »

I have had more than one infuriating conversation on social media with Sanders supporters over how there's no way in hell that Sanders wins WY and a dozen other states while losing IL, MD & HI.

The Bernie strike force on Twitter actually believes this crap?! Dear god.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
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« Reply #7 on: January 30, 2016, 04:15:02 PM »

If you look at the vote numbers, Lex Green does have a ridiculous percentage.

Also, Randy is his veep lol

I have had more than one infuriating conversation on social media with Sanders supporters over how there's no way in hell that Sanders wins WY and a dozen other states while losing IL, MD & HI.

The Bernie strike force on Twitter actually believes this crap?! Dear god.

BUT MUH POLITICAL REVOLUTION
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Torie
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« Reply #8 on: January 30, 2016, 04:15:13 PM »

Rubio must have taken over the Democratic party in Chicago and stuffed the ballot boxes there several times over.
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NeverAgain
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« Reply #9 on: January 30, 2016, 04:16:10 PM »

LOL Pennsylvania is Strong R due to the Pat Toomey affect leading from the 272 freiwall not indulged by 90% of the mainstreeem liberative media. Anyways, no chance in hell Alaska goes Republican this cycle.
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Adam the Gr8
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« Reply #10 on: January 30, 2016, 04:17:38 PM »

Yeah, this has been going around for months. Supposedly, they have a perfect track record of picking the eventual nominees of each party going back to 1975, but when I looked, I could only find examples of their mock poll results published online for 2007 and 2011. I wasn't even able to find that specific claim on WIU's site.

In their defense, I don't think they ever claimed that their electoral projections state-by-state are accurate (I believe those votes are determined based on the student voters' states of origin), but I have had more than one infuriating conversation on social media with Sanders supporters over how there's no way in hell that Sanders wins WY and a dozen other states while losing IL, MD & HI.

At any rate, I think they're going to be wrong this cycle, even if their track record of accuracy goes back as long as some have claimed.
I was thinking the same thing about the student's home states, but Illinois is red and it's Western Illinois University. Assuming the majority of students are from Illinois other than just a handful, I wouldn't think Bush would be chosen over Bernie. And I don't see any explanation for PA just being blank and like I said the EV totals don't even match the map.
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #11 on: January 30, 2016, 04:20:06 PM »

Rubio must have taken over the Democratic party in Chicago and stuffed the ballot boxes there several times over.

Obviously this is a sign that the Democratic establishment would prefer a Republican to Comrade Bernie.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #12 on: January 30, 2016, 04:20:09 PM »

Wow, Maryland truly must hate O'Malley.

Laughed out loud at this.
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Adam the Gr8
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« Reply #13 on: January 30, 2016, 04:20:19 PM »

I have had more than one infuriating conversation on social media with Sanders supporters over how there's no way in hell that Sanders wins WY and a dozen other states while losing IL, MD & HI.

The Bernie strike force on Twitter actually believes this crap?! Dear god.
I saw this shared on a few Berniebro's walls on Facebook. And it was reported by NBC Chicago.
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Wells
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« Reply #14 on: January 30, 2016, 05:13:49 PM »

To be fair, they don't have a perfect track record predicting the actual candidate that wins the general election (or even the nomination), just the political party that wins. And they don't exactly get the margin of victory right every time, either. So, what we should get out of this is there's going to be a Democrat in the White House for another four years.
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