What If Callaghan went for October 1978 ?

[Rural Radical]

What would have happened if Callaghan had called an election in October 1978 instead of the debacle that followed the following May ?

Would there have been a workable majority for Labour ? Or another Hung Parliament ? Or A Conservative Victory ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour would have won; I'm fairly sure of that. Whether they'd have got a majority or not is harder to tell; I tend to think that Callaghan would have got a majority a bit larger than Wilson got in October '74; say 15 to 20 seats; most of Labour's gains would have come off the SNP I think. The Liberals would have done pretty badly; Thorpe would have lost about as badly as he did in the real life '79 election, and Wainwright would probably have gone down in Colne Valley.

[Rural Radical]

Well one thing for certain the SDP would not have happened ? So the '83 and '87 elections would have been different (no split left of centre vote ).

[Polkergeist]

I'm willing to give this a go.

This site: http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~pnorris/

has a spreadsheet of Gallup opinion polls from 1945-2000. I 'll use the October 1978 voting numbers which were:

Lab 47
Con 42
Lib  6
Oth 5

Using the error in how much the Gallup polls were out in the real life 1979 election we get these adjusted figures

election results - May '79 poll
Lab -4.1
Con + 0.9
Lib +5.8
Oth -2.6

what-if Oct '78 poll w/ difference against real-life '79 election in brackets

Lab 42.9 (+6)
Con 42.9 (-1)
Lib 11.8 (-2)
Oth 2.4 (-3)


Using the list of consitutencies for each party at http://www.psr.keele.ac.uk/area/uk/ge79/maj.htm

I calculated the composition of the commons after an Oct '78 election to be (change from Oct '74 in brackets):

Lab 326 (+7)
Con 284 (+8)
Lib 8 (-5)
PC 2 (-1)
SNP 2 (-9)
NI parties 12 includes 1 IND and 1 SDLP

Result: Labour Majority of 17

Al is spot on the money

Assuming an early September dissolution Labour would have gone from a minority of 17  to majority of 17 so it would have been of some relief to the government but however Labour would still be vulnerable to internal strife.

Looking at the long term I think the Callaghan governement would last into the 80's and would continue with economic refom that it began in 1977 that turned back socialist aspects of the British economy. However it would be less confrontational with the unions and we may see an Australian style accord between a Labour government and the Trade Unions to keep down strikes and inflation.

However this wouldn't keep sections of the left in the Labour party happy and during the early 1980's recession I wouldn't be suprised to see a splinter left wing party leave Labour. Lets call it Socialist Labour (SLP). it would have the support of some left wing unions and it would probably spur on some industrial conflict. this would give a pretext for Callaghan to take on the rebel unions and gain some Fleet Street cred as tough on the "loony left"

However popularity-wise with the recession in 1981 the government would still be unpopular and the Tories would have a 10 pt or so lead in the polls. Also the SLP would have double digit support.

This is where we come to fork in the road in this ATL by 1981 the government is sinking, down in the polls with a rebellion from within it's ranks it may fall to a no-confidence motion, depending how many Labour MP's defect to the SLP and whether the SLP would vote against Labour to bring in a Tory govt.

If the govt falls the the Tories would win in a landslide with a 3 digit majority.

If the govt survives until 1982, the Falklands war would occur and this would swing support behind the government and with the economy improving an election in late '82 or in mid '83 would see the Callaghan government returned with a stable majority and the SLP consigned to single figures in the popular vote with few seats in the commons.

It is at this fork in the road I will leave this analysis

[Rural Radical]

An out and out left wing  (or Right wing) party would have little or no support in the UK.

I f Labour had won a 3rd term in 1983 Callaghan would have stepped down in 1985to make way for a new Leader. Possibly David Owen. Any Thoughts ?

[Bunnybrit]

This has always been one of my favourite "What-Ifs".
Callaghan was to admit later on that he had made a massive error in judgement in not going for a October 1978 election.
I agree that he would have won with a majority of around 20 seats.
Callaghan also said he would have had resigned the Premiership mind may through that Parliament. He favoured Dennis Healey(as he did in the real life Labour leadership election of 1981), Healey would have been leader but I wonder what would have happended if Micheal Foot had won any Leadership election if this timeline and become Prime-Minister. What a scary thought!!!
If Healey wins any election to suceed Callaghan, then I agree with the idea that it would keep the right wing of the Labour Party, so there would been no SDP breakaway, it would only happen with Foot becomes Prime-Minister.
If the Falkland war happens as per our history in April 1982 then if Healey was prime-Minister he would not have fought, but starngley Foot(who backed Thatcher in 1982) would and attempted to retake them.
As for the Conservatives Thatcher would have been out by Christmas either by her own hand or by a forced Leadership vote. Jim Prior, Howe, Hezzez, and Peter Walker would have gone for the Leadership.
This very idea of a 1978 election formed the basis of a 1993 TV programme on BBC2, with interviews with Healey, Callagahan etc, and TV news broadcasts from this world, it was quite good, and as far as I know has never been repeated.

[Beet]

A Conservative Victory ?

Non

[Rural Radical]

This has always been one of my favourite "What-Ifs".
Callaghan was to admit later on that he had made a massive error in judgement in not going for a October 1978 election.
I agree that he would have won with a majority of around 20 seats.
Callaghan also said he would have had resigned the Premiership mind may through that Parliament. He favoured Dennis Healey(as he did in the real life Labour leadership election of 1981), Healey would have been leader but I wonder what would have happended if Micheal Foot had won any Leadership election if this timeline and become Prime-Minister. What a scary thought!!!


Michael Foot wouldnt have been a bad prime Minister. He was character assasinated by the right wing press. Though I would have prefered Healey.
If Healey wins any election to suceed Callaghan, then I agree with the idea that it would keep the right wing of the Labour Party, so there would been no SDP breakaway, it would only happen with Foot becomes Prime-Minister.
If the Falkland war happens as per our history in April 1982 then if Healey was prime-Minister he would not have fought, but starngley Foot(who backed Thatcher in 1982) would and attempted to retake them.
As for the Conservatives Thatcher would have been out by Christmas either by her own hand or by a forced Leadership vote. Jim Prior, Howe, Hezzez, and Peter Walker would have gone for the Leadership.
This very idea of a 1978 election formed the basis of a 1993 TV programme on BBC2, with interviews with Healey, Callagahan etc, and TV news broadcasts from this world, it was quite good, and as far as I know has never been repeated.

[Michael Z]

I actually did a timeline on this in the "What if"-forum. A shameless plug on my behalf, I know, but I hope it's interesting:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=30557.0

[Serenity Now]

I f Labour had won a 3rd term in 1983 Callaghan would have stepped down in 1985to make way for a new Leader. Possibly David Owen. Any Thoughts ?

How about the 'best prime minister we never had'? (Dennis Healy)

[Peter]

I certainly think that a breakaway Socialist Labour Party would have happened in the wake of a 1978 Labour victory. Ultimately the party could never have continued beyond the next general election as the SDP were able to do because of its extreme message. Most importantly, this would have removed supporters of Michael Foot from the party, thus ensuring the election of a more sane leader and Prime Minister.

Healey, Owen, Hattersly, Williams, Smith, Gould, Shore would all have been possible candidates. Obviously I would have backed Owen, since he is indeed a God.

[ChrisDR68]

This is a very, very old thread from 2005 but I've always been fascinated by this subject. Not only the question of Callaghan holding (and probably winning) a September 1978 general election but whether he could have avoided losing the vote of no confidence the following March by one vote.

Can you imagine the ramifications of Labour winning in 1978?

No Maggie Thatcher and probably no Thatcherism (or at the very least a milder version of it had they got back in later on during the 80's). A fairly big chance The Gang Of Four don't break away from Labour to form the SDP. Callaghan stepping down around 1981 and in all likelihood being succeeded by Denis Healey as Prime Minister.

Possibly no Falklands War as HMS Endurance wouldn't have been withdrawn from the South Atlantic. The 1980/1981 recession not being as severe as the government wouldn't have been following the hardline monetarist economic polices that Maggie followed.

If a 1978 election had taken place with Labour being returned to power would Britain be a different place than the one it is today or is it too long ago to be much of an influence?

[Lurker]

This is still a pretty interesting "What if?". I wonder how history would have viewed Thatcher had she lost in '78 (which I guess would have been the end of her time as party leader).


I wouldn't be so sure though that Callaghan would have won if he had called the election in October '78. Yes, there were a couple of polls showing a Labour lead at the time. Still it's important to remember this: The British polling industry has historically been one of the worst around, and has been particularly bad at calling elections (for unknown reasons). Those numbers might well not have been entirely accurate.

[ChrisDR68]

I agree UK pollsters have been inaccurate over the years. In all likelihood it's probably mainly down to the "shy Tory voter" effect as they invariably overstate Labour's and understate the Conservative's position with the public at any given point of time. That was certainly the case in 1992 when John Major won his surprise victory.

During the actual election campaign in May 1979 Callaghan did manage to close the lead on the Tories from around 20 points to 7 on election day. Without The Winter Of Discontent as a backdrop in September 1978 and with 2 years of economic recovery behind him I think Big Jim could have achieved a majority of around 10 seats.

That doesn't sound like a lot but except for the Ulster Unionists the Tories lack natural allies in the House Of Commons so that size of majority would probably have seen Labour through 4 or 5 years of government.

In my alternate timeline I can see Denis Healey having a good chance to win a fourth straight general election for Labour in 1984 campaigning against someone like Peter Walker or William Whitelaw.

[YL]

I think the evidence of the 1978 polls combined with the fact that the Tories won a fairly small majority in the aftermath of the Winter of Discontent suggests that Labour would indeed have won in the autumn of 1978.  If only...

Things had been much worse for Labour earlier in the parliament.  In the 1977 county council elections, the Tories actually won control of Merseyside (which had a county council back then) which seems utterly astonishing now.  If you look at by-election results, Labour had some awful results in 1976 and 1977 (losing Workington, Ashfield and Birmingham Stechford to the Tories) but their results in 1978 (e.g. Penistone and Berwick & East Lothian) don't look too bad for a party in government.

[ChrisDR68]

The other reason why Callaghan's decision not to go to the country in September 1978 was so important was that had Labour remained in power the open civil war within the party probably wouldn't have happened (or not have been as ruinous as it turned out to be).

I've just finished watching "Labour - The Wilderness Years" on youtube. A really excellent 4 part BBC series from 1995. From Callaghan's decision against an early election all the way up to the January 1981 special conference where the decisions to mandatorily re-select mp's by the local party and to adopt an electoral college for the leader and deputy leader (the formation of the SDP was announced the next day after the conference was over) I can't help thinking they got virtually every big decision wrong.

[RogueBeaver]

He'd win a minority or small majority, as everyone else said.