Your Iowa GOP Predictions.
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  Your Iowa GOP Predictions.
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Author Topic: Your Iowa GOP Predictions.  (Read 3525 times)
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #50 on: January 31, 2016, 09:55:40 AM »

If the predicted (and unprecedented) turnout actually arrives, Trump. Otherwise, Cruz.

I haven't seen any evidence of a big pickup in voter registrations, but then again, there doesn't seem to be a bunch of information like that available.

I'm going to say Trump, unfortunately, but that's partially just me trying to set low expectations so I'm not disappointed.

I'm gonna wait for the Entrance Poll, I think turnout is going to be between the Trump high and the average, I am honestly thinking it will be very close.
There's an entrance poll?

Here is the entrance poll data from 2012 http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/iowa/exit-polls

Yeah, but those are the final entrance poll numbers.  The numbers that they'll release right at 8pm Eastern are just the "first wave" of respondents, and those can be off by quite a bit.  In 2012, that was:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=146356.msg3140984#msg3140984

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A notable overestimate for Paul and underestimate for Santorum.
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mencken
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« Reply #51 on: February 02, 2016, 10:55:24 AM »

Sanders - 50
Clinton - 45
O'Malley - 4

Cruz - 27
Trump - 26
Rubio - 22
Carson - 8
Paul - 4
Bush - 3
Christie - 2
Kasich - 2
Huckabee - 2
Fiorina - 1
Santorum - 1

Most of us will be wrong, but why not? I'm going to say Sanders and Cruz pull upsets.

I haven't run the numbers yet, but that has to be pretty darn close to the actual results on the GOP side. Nailed Sanders perfectly as well.
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The Free North
CTRattlesnake
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« Reply #52 on: February 02, 2016, 11:19:08 AM »

Sanders - 50
Clinton - 45
O'Malley - 4

Cruz - 27
Trump - 26
Rubio - 22
Carson - 8
Paul - 4
Bush - 3
Christie - 2
Kasich - 2
Huckabee - 2
Fiorina - 1
Santorum - 1

Most of us will be wrong, but why not? I'm going to say Sanders and Cruz pull upsets.

I haven't run the numbers yet, but that has to be pretty darn close to the actual results on the GOP side. Nailed Sanders perfectly as well.

Im going through the 90+ picks I have down from everyone and he is winning at the moment.
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