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  IA/NH/SC-NBC/WSJ: Trump Leads Everywhere; Close D Race
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Author Topic: IA/NH/SC-NBC/WSJ: Trump Leads Everywhere; Close D Race  (Read 3481 times)
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darthebearnc
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« on: January 28, 2016, 07:05:44 AM »
« edited: January 28, 2016, 07:09:42 AM by ͡◔ ᴥ ͡◔ »

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/trump-strong-three-early-states-clinton-sanders-battle-poll-n505516











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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2016, 07:06:31 AM »

IA: something for everybody
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2016, 07:23:39 AM »

Nothing changed from their previous poll in Iowa and proving how strong Sanders growing lead is in New Hampshire.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2016, 07:27:04 AM »

Is Rubio having a last minute mini surge in Iowa? He got 16% in the Monmouth poll and he is starting to shoot up on the Huff polling averages now, same with Carson lol

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2016, 07:30:11 AM »

Does anyone want to bet on a surprise Rubio win in Iowa ?

The quotas on William Hill are good:

1:21
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2016, 07:47:48 AM »

Does anyone want to bet on a surprise Rubio win in Iowa ?

The quotas on William Hill are good:

1:21

I doubt he'll win, but it would be funny if he snuck into the top two at the last minute, after all this talk of it being a Cruz-Trump race.  I wonder if that would be enough to give him big mo' in New Hampshire, a la Buchanan '96.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: January 28, 2016, 08:10:47 AM »

In Iowa, on the Dem. side, who leads in…?

Eastern Cities: Clinton +12
East Central: Sanders +3
Des Moines area: Clinton +8
Central: Sanders +6
West: Sanders +6

In Iowa, on the GOP side, who leads among…?

moderates: Rubio
conservatives: Trump
Tea Party supporters: Cruz
Des Moines area: Cruz
all other regions of the state: Trump
college graduate: Cruz
not college graduate: Trump

college graduate:
Cruz 26%
Rubio 24%
Trump 20%

not college graduate:
Trump 42%
Cruz 24%
Rubio 12%
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #7 on: January 28, 2016, 08:12:35 AM »

https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/status/692691283773657088

Among those with whom you can match to a registered voter list in the Marist poll in Iowa, Clinton is up 25. Down 18 among those you can't.
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Flake
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« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2016, 08:54:17 AM »

New Poll: South Carolina President by Marist College on 2016-01-26

Summary:
Clinton:
64%
Sanders:
27%
Other:
2%
Undecided:
7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: January 28, 2016, 09:06:31 AM »

In Iowa, on the Dem. side, who leads in…?

Eastern Cities: Clinton +12
East Central: Sanders +3
Des Moines area: Clinton +8
Central: Sanders +6
West: Sanders +6

Do you have a link to where this info came from? I'm not finding it in the press link and I am interested to see how they define the geography of the state. That is not how I expected the map would look, but who knows.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: January 28, 2016, 09:13:04 AM »

In Iowa, on the Dem. side, who leads in…?

Eastern Cities: Clinton +12
East Central: Sanders +3
Des Moines area: Clinton +8
Central: Sanders +6
West: Sanders +6

Do you have a link to where this info came from? I'm not finding it in the press link and I am interested to see how they define the geography of the state. That is not how I expected the map would look, but who knows.

At the bottom of this page, there are links to all the crosstabs:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/128-trump-leads-in-ia-nh-and-sc-clinton-and-sanders-competitive-in-ia-sanders-up-in-nh-clinton-leads-in-sc/

Click on the "likely Democratic caucus-goers" link for Iowa.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #11 on: January 28, 2016, 09:13:36 AM »
« Edited: January 28, 2016, 09:16:29 AM by MohamedChalid »

Does anyone want to bet on a surprise Rubio win in Iowa ?

The quotas on William Hill are good:

1:21

I seriously doubt it, but we might have a surprise when he’s coming in second and the whole thing ends in disaster for The Donald. I think Cruz will win because he seems to have the best organization in IA. This result, I think, could really happen: Cruz 31%, Rubio 24%, Trump 22%, Carson 12%,…. The rest of the pack in single digits
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #12 on: January 28, 2016, 09:15:48 AM »

In South Carolina, Democratic race by race:

whites:
Clinton 52%
Sanders 41%

blacks:
Clinton 74%
Sanders 17%
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Bacon King
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« Reply #13 on: January 28, 2016, 09:26:02 AM »

https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/status/692691283773657088

Among those with whom you can match to a registered voter list in the Marist poll in Iowa, Clinton is up 25. Down 18 among those you can't.

They typically can't match ~60% of respondents, for what it's worth. Even if you don't take into account that you can register to vote at your caucus location (and therefore the candidate doing better among first time voters will underperform on this measurement), there are plenty of reasons why they wouldn't be able to accurately match all respondents to a voter list, even if they are registered
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #14 on: January 28, 2016, 09:31:02 AM »

In Iowa, on the Dem. side, who leads in…?
Eastern Cities: Clinton +12
East Central: Sanders +3
Des Moines area: Clinton +8
Central: Sanders +6
West: Sanders +6

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/IA.html
Wonder what the implications are delegate wise? In 2008 I believe Clinton did well West, Obama well East, so interesting it's reversed now.

Also I would have thought Sanders did better in cities.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #15 on: January 28, 2016, 10:12:16 AM »

Great numbers for Secretary Clinton. It looks like Sanders is still dead in the water after these two ultra-white states that are not at all representative of the beautiful and diverse 2016 Democratic Party.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #16 on: January 28, 2016, 10:48:32 AM »

GLORIOUS polls for MADAME PRESIDENT

NBC/WSJ such CREDIBLE and HIGHLY RESPECTED polling...GOLD STANDARD in the industry...

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cxs018
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« Reply #17 on: January 28, 2016, 11:07:51 AM »

In Iowa, on the Dem. side, who leads in…?

Eastern Cities: Clinton +12
East Central: Sanders +3
Des Moines area: Clinton +8
Central: Sanders +6
West: Sanders +6


Well, this somewhat puts the whole "Sanders support is too concentrated in the college cities" myth to rest.
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #18 on: January 28, 2016, 11:16:04 AM »

Excellent news for Mr. Sanders for the HillHacks at NBC to have him in a dead heat.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #19 on: January 28, 2016, 11:31:35 AM »

GLORIOUS polls for MADAME PRESIDENT

NBC/WSJ such CREDIBLE and HIGHLY RESPECTED polling...GOLD STANDARD in the industry...



wat
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #20 on: January 28, 2016, 12:16:22 PM »

Welp, guess I'm caucusing for Rubio.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #21 on: January 28, 2016, 12:20:27 PM »

Welp, guess I'm caucusing for Rubio.

Yay
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Ebsy
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« Reply #22 on: January 28, 2016, 12:21:34 PM »

Pretty good numbers for Clinton, except in NH.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #23 on: January 28, 2016, 12:28:36 PM »

Pretty good numbers for Clinton, except in NH.

Yup. There continues to be zero evidence of significant Sanders movement with blacks. Without that, he can't win the nomination.
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Dr. RI, Trustbuster
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« Reply #24 on: January 28, 2016, 12:33:16 PM »

Does anyone want to bet on a surprise Rubio win in Iowa ?

The quotas on William Hill are good:

1:21

I suspect Rubio's ceiling in Iowa is Romney numbers: ~25%
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