Why is Iowa a blue state?

[tschandler]

The Farm Crisis of the 80s definitely played a role.   Now I wonder which political trend breaks through in Iowa first.  The Midwest in general trending republican is one. Fiscal conservatives that speak against ethanol is another.  (Bush being more anti subsidy that Gore in 00 compared to his pro subsidy message in 04 probably flipped it to him).    While Iowa isn't "that rural" I wonder if the Democrats "rural purge" will eventually play in Iowa as well.  Compare the party of Bill Clinton/Al Gore (Sun Belt, moderate, fiscally responsible) to the party of Obama/Hillary Clinton/Bernie Sanders (Northern states, liberal, fiscal liberalism).

[tschandler]

It is a swing state that leans slightly Democratic, but I wouldn't call it a blue state.

^^^

It's a swing state that's voted Democratic in 6 of the past 7 elections in a country where Democrats have won the Presidential popular vote 5 of the past 7 times; one of those is attributed to the Farm Crisis.


The real question is, "Why do Republicans keep alienating swing state voters?"

That is mostly selection bias.   We are at the end of a two term Democrat's run.  That was preceded by a two term Republican.  That was preceded by a two term Democrat.  Iowa voted with the winner every time but 88 and 00.  

2000 was a third of a percentage point.  Gore was almost more openly pro ethanol than Bush was in 2000.   1988 was the farm crisis.