Why is Iowa a blue state?
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  Why is Iowa a blue state?
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Author Topic: Why is Iowa a blue state?  (Read 5026 times)
youngohioan216
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« on: January 26, 2016, 11:53:39 PM »

It's a mostly rural midwestern state with no truly big cities. It has a large evangelical population and a small minority population.  Based on the demographics it should vote like Kansas or Nebraska but the Republican candidate has only won it once since 1988. 
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RFayette
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« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2016, 11:55:33 PM »

Lots of small urban areas which vote like big metros, and relatively few suburbs

Eastern Iowa also votes for Dems, even in the rural parts, just like bordering areas in WI, MN, and IL (Drifess Area)
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BRTD
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« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2016, 12:44:23 AM »

I'm willing to wager that as often as this question is asked, it's never asked by anyone who has actually been to Des Moines, Waterloo, Cedar Rapids or Iowa City.
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: January 27, 2016, 12:46:27 AM »

It's more urban that you'd think. From the census data, 64% of its population is in urban areas - less than the country as a whole, but more then, say, Vermont or New Hampshire.
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BRTD
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« Reply #4 on: January 27, 2016, 12:54:33 AM »

It's more urban that you'd think. From the census data, 64% of its population is in urban areas - less than the country as a whole, but more then, say, Vermont or New Hampshire.

Yeah what people don't realize, far more people in Iowa live in places that look like this:



than this:

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Young Conservative
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« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2016, 06:09:08 PM »

It definitely is NOT a blue state. It has Two republican senators, a republican government and republican majorities in both state houses. Not to mention its status as a swing state and its 3/4 us house reps that are republican
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Asian Nazi
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« Reply #6 on: January 27, 2016, 06:29:51 PM »

Settlement patterns.  Much of Eastern Iowa, like the rest of the Driftless Area, was settled by less wealthy farmers from New England and Scandinavia.  This is opposed to the much more arable Western Iowa, which was grabbed up by wealthier German and Dutch settlers.  If you look at an election map, you'll see that Eastern Iowa represents a political continuum with neighboring regions of MN, WI, and IL, while Western Iowa votes much more like Nebraska.  

Though as youngconservative points out, Iowa is hardly a solid blue state.  It leans that way a bit in presidential elections, but the state as a whole is rather elastic and swingy.  
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Virginiá
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« Reply #7 on: January 27, 2016, 06:39:25 PM »

It definitely is NOT a blue state. It has Two republican senators, a republican government and republican majorities in both state houses. Not to mention its status as a swing state and its 3/4 us house reps that are republican

The Iowa Senate is 26-24 Democratic and the Iowa House of Reps. does have a Republican majority, but it's not exactly a solid majority, either (57-43 Republican). That's what Democrats had in 2009-2011 before it flipped, and it could just as easily flip back. On top of that, Democrats held almost all statewide offices from 1999 - 2011, until Mr. Branstad decided 16 years as governor wasn't enough, and he needed at least 8 - 12 more years.

In addition, it voted for a Democratic president in the past 6 / 7 elections, with that one Republican win being on a <1% razor-thin margin. Depending on how you look at it, since the late 70s, it's been somewhat more Democratic at various levels than Republican.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Iowa
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #8 on: January 27, 2016, 06:59:48 PM »

It is a swing state that leans slightly Democratic, but I wouldn't call it a blue state.
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tschandler
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« Reply #9 on: January 27, 2016, 07:20:25 PM »
« Edited: January 27, 2016, 07:26:09 PM by tschandler »

The Farm Crisis of the 80s definitely played a role.   Now I wonder which political trend breaks through in Iowa first.  The Midwest in general trending republican is one. Fiscal conservatives that speak against ethanol is another.  (Bush being more anti subsidy that Gore in 00 compared to his pro subsidy message in 04 probably flipped it to him).    While Iowa isn't "that rural" I wonder if the Democrats "rural purge" will eventually play in Iowa as well.  Compare the party of Bill Clinton/Al Gore (Sun Belt, moderate, fiscally responsible) to the party of Obama/Hillary Clinton/Bernie Sanders (Northern states, liberal, fiscal liberalism).
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Asian Nazi
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« Reply #10 on: January 27, 2016, 07:44:24 PM »

The Midwest in general trending republican is one.

[citation needed]
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: January 27, 2016, 08:14:56 PM »

It has a high concentration of urbanization in Des Moines, like in WI & MN, that votes solidly Democratic
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #12 on: January 27, 2016, 08:17:47 PM »

wait what is a "blue state"
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #13 on: January 27, 2016, 08:19:43 PM »

It's not.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #14 on: January 27, 2016, 08:31:50 PM »

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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #15 on: January 27, 2016, 09:20:30 PM »


In fact, I expect it to have a Republican PVI this year.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #16 on: January 27, 2016, 10:02:19 PM »


It's what they call a state which has been poisoned by decades of people dumping unwanted blueberry jolly ranchers & grape drink into nearby water sources.

Now, if you want to know if it's a red state, then go to local cemeteries and look around. If you see bootstraps growing out of the ground instead of grass, you'll know the majority of the people there were conservatives!
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Miles
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« Reply #17 on: January 27, 2016, 10:05:15 PM »

It definitely is NOT a blue state. It has Two republican senators, a republican government and republican majorities in both state houses. Not to mention its status as a swing state and its 3/4 us house reps that are republican

The State Senate is Democratic.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #18 on: January 27, 2016, 10:09:37 PM »

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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #19 on: January 27, 2016, 11:19:29 PM »

It is a swing state that leans slightly Democratic, but I wouldn't call it a blue state.

^^^

It's a swing state that's voted Democratic in 6 of the past 7 elections in a country where Democrats have won the Presidential popular vote 5 of the past 7 times; one of those is attributed to the Farm Crisis.


The real question is, "Why do Republicans keep alienating swing state voters?"
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youngohioan216
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« Reply #20 on: January 28, 2016, 12:41:33 AM »

Would cities like Cedar Rapids, Sioux City, and Waterloo be comparable to places like Akron, Canton, and Youngstown---mid-size cities with a large industrial/union presence?
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tschandler
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« Reply #21 on: January 28, 2016, 11:03:22 AM »
« Edited: January 28, 2016, 11:06:13 AM by tschandler »

It is a swing state that leans slightly Democratic, but I wouldn't call it a blue state.

^^^

It's a swing state that's voted Democratic in 6 of the past 7 elections in a country where Democrats have won the Presidential popular vote 5 of the past 7 times; one of those is attributed to the Farm Crisis.


The real question is, "Why do Republicans keep alienating swing state voters?"

That is mostly selection bias.   We are at the end of a two term Democrat's run.  That was preceded by a two term Republican.  That was preceded by a two term Democrat.  Iowa voted with the winner every time but 88 and 00.  

2000 was a third of a percentage point.  Gore was almost more openly pro ethanol than Bush was in 2000.   1988 was the farm crisis.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #22 on: January 28, 2016, 12:05:53 PM »
« Edited: January 28, 2016, 12:10:24 PM by RINO Tom »

It's more urban that you'd think. From the census data, 64% of its population is in urban areas - less than the country as a whole, but more then, say, Vermont or New Hampshire.

Yeah what people don't realize, far more people in Iowa live in places that look like this:



than this:



That in and of itself doesn't make a place Democratic, BRTD, no matter how much you fancy your party as a "cosmopolitan" one or whatever.  Downstate Illinois (which I'm defining as everything outside of the Chicagoland area) is more urbanized than Iowa, and it votes Republican.

Peoria


Rockford


Moline (Quad Cities)


Bloomington/Normal


Champaign


Springfield


Decatur


None of these are including the 700,000+ people who live in the IL suburbs of St. Louis (naturally, there's not really a picture that does that area justice).  Just saying that a place NOT being rural does not necessarily correlate to it being Democratic territory.  Just using simple math, the majority of Republican voters are not going to be in rural areas.

Now, as someone who lives in Iowa City, this would be my answer: Eastern Iowa has more population than the western half of the state, and it also has several industrial, blue collar cities (Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, Dubuque, the Quad Cities, Muscatine) that provide a nice floor for Democrats.  When you combine that with the college town Democrats in Iowa City, Ames and Cedar Falls and the fact that rural voters in Eastern Iowa usually vote Democratic too, you get a pretty high floor for the Democrats in Presidential elections, one that can usually overpower the western half of the state (mostly rural) and the outer/richer Des Moines and Cedar Rapids suburbs.
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BRTD
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« Reply #23 on: January 28, 2016, 04:48:42 PM »

All of those places you mentioned in Illinois DO vote Democratic except Bloomington.
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Torie
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« Reply #24 on: January 28, 2016, 05:25:00 PM »

All of those places you mentioned in Illinois DO vote Democratic except Bloomington.

The cities, not necessarily the metro areas. Part of rural Iowa in the Eastern part of the state is in that more liberal rural zone that includes western Wisconsin. It is not as liberal as the Birkenstock belt, but still unusual liberal for rural white areas. So that needs to be added to the mix.
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